Friends in football,

That Bills-Giants game is the frontrunner for Bizarro Game of the Year, right? What did we just watch?

It was a 1/10 on the "good football" scale. An 8/10 on the "WTF decisions" scale. A 9/10 on the "wait, which team is which?" scale. And a 10/10 on the "SURVIVOR DRAMA" scale.

Had Darren Waller caught the above pictured pass, the Bills would have lost as our top pick for the first time ever. Had the refs called blatant DPI, the Giants would have had another crack at it.

Instead, Bills pickers survive. Non-Bills pickers stomp their BLL cans in "what could have been" angst. TyGod truthers must wait another week (or year?). And we move to Week 7 tied for our 4th best BFIG survival rate (28%) at this juncture in our 15 SZNs.

PICKING & RESULTS LINKS

The BIG Survivor (BFIG) results

• Survival record: 3,138-481
• Worst loss: Eagles (8%) to Jets
• Best Squad(s): Still 100+ squads with 3+ survivors (and thus the max score of 18 wins)

Survivor #2 results

• Survival record: 5,865-871
• Worst loss: Eagles (4%) to Jets
• Best Squad(s): Still a logjam with a perfect score of 6 wins through two weeks

Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo) results

• Weekly winner(s): 14-1 is mighty impressive given the huge Jets and Browns upsets. Seven of us did just that and will split the weekly haul. Congrats @BigBenHoppsAndBurger, @Duckhunter0211, @LEONARD123, @ajmoffett, @avyacco, @dschliebner, and @nfrank13
• Best Squad(s): Finally we have multi-week run at the top. "DFS Sweatshop" is at 195 wins, with its top three squadmembers posting 66, 66, and 63 wins so far. That's good for T10, T10, and T177 in the overall standings. Nice!
• Overall leader(s): @otis is back on top, tied with @Lejeandary1 at 68 wins

QB One-and-Done results

• Top passer: Derek Carr (357 yards; 19 picks)
• Weekly average: 223 yards per pick (-2 below the average QB performance). Our first EVER week where our collective picking was worse than just taking that week's average performance
• Best Squad(s): It is TIGHT at the top. "Blindfolded Dart Throwers" is still on top... by 9 total yards over "BLOODGATE"
• Overall leader(s): @dcwiek took advantage of a bunch of dud performances to reclaim the throne at 2,180 yards. That also makes @dcwiek our Interval 1 champ (see a full write-up below)

Loser Survivor Brought to You by The OddsBreakers results

• Survival record: 683-183
• Worst win: Browns (16%) beat Niners
• Best Squad(s): Down to 15 squads with at least 3 survivors (and thus 18 wins)

"All 32" One-and-Done results

• W/L record: 4,033-1,127
• Overall leader(s): We went from 383 undefeateds to 227 after our second two-pick week. I still believe we'll be at 0 by Thanksgiving or so. 
• Best Squad(s): NO PERFECT SCORES LEFT! Four squads are at 23 wins (one shy of perfect)

COMMISH COMMENTARY

I swear the Survivor Gods don't read these emails... but some weeks make me wonder.

I dedicated a large chunk of the Sunday PICKS email to showing just how clear the case is for "home field still matters in Survivor picking, even if it doesn't matter anymore for the NFL overall".

The stats, from 2020 thru now, and for well over 100,000 picks, are very clear: Home survivor picks are much safer than road survivor picks.

And, as if summoned by the gods, our two biggest road picks (the undefeated Niners and Eagles) both went down in shocking defeats.

The vaunted Niners lost to... PJ Walker.

The seemingly bulletproof Eagles lost to... Zach Wilson.

NO, COMMISH CANNOT EXPLAIN IT.

But I can give you the stats. I can tell you that SOMETHING makes it so a certain scenario is riskier than another scenario. I can strike the fear of a thousand Wilforks in you and let you decide what to do with that terror.

Were the Niners and Eagles bad picks? Of course not. It was very hard to credibly predict either upset. Plus, the Bills arguably played worse than both. But did those picks violate the most mysterious of the Survivor Golden Rules? Yessir.

Once again, my inbox is open for your theories on WHY this is true. I feel like if we can put our collective SZN powers together, we might uncover a contrarian betting edge that we can keep alllll to ourselves.

Congrats to our Interval 1 winner in the QB One-and-Done, @dcwiek, who edged @joshd_8 by a mere 3 yards.

@dcwiek posted 2,180 yards over the first 6 weeks by taking, in order, Tua (466 yards), Stroud (384), Herbert (454), Allen (320), Kirky (284), and Dak (272).

Perfection would have been the pickline of Tua, Stroud, Herbert, Fields, Howell, Carr - good for 2,384 yards. So, @dcwiek built a big lead - perfect through three weeks - and then hung on.

2,111 yards was required to cash (top 10 in each interval get paid), and @KingGM, who is not The GM but perhaps lays claim to GM's liberties and freedoms, finished in that 10th spot.

Best part about pools with intervals: Even if you were horrendous (like Commish!) in one interval, you get FRESH LIFE at the start of the next. So let's ride... just maybe not with Russ.

Yours in football,
The Commish