Friends in football,

Do we truly love the Seahawks this week (53% BFIG pick rate, vs. the Cardinals)... or did most of us feel we had no other (good) option?

Classical Majority Pick... or Necessity Pick?

In any case, the Seahawks are our first Majority Pick of 2023, and our first pre-Week 10 Majority Pick since 2020.

Majority Picks, overall, are 27-9 in BFIG Survivor's 15 years. Pre-Week 10 Majority Picks - when survivors have more teams to choose from - are an even more impressive 20-3.

But this pick feels different. Commish riffs on it below...

COMMISH COMMENTARY

For those who plan - or at least look - ahead, y'all likely had Week 7 circled.

13 games (the minimum, which happens only 1-2 times per year). And only FOUR clear favorites.

Three of those four (BUF, KC, SEA) are playing divisional rivals, and the fourth (SF) is on the road against a team (MIN) that won 13 games last year.

Worse still - three of the big favorites (SF, BUF, KC) have already been picked by at least 64% of BFIG survivors heading into Week 7.

Add it all up, and a large percentage of BFIGers were faced with a simple question: Pick Seattle, or pick a game that Vegas rates as a toss-up (3-point spread or less).

Reality smacked us in the face EARLY this year!

We responded by taking the Seahawks in droves, rather than pin our hopes on a game predicted to be tight.

But Commish anticipates a lot of anxiety out there today. The Cards have been competitive in every game but one, with a VERY tough schedule so far. And you know how Commish feels about divisional games.

Here's to hoping DK can put the truck stick away for a day, Geno can continue cooking better than Russ, and the Seahawks can bump Majority Picks to 28-9 all time.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

This might be the best week yet to illustrated how we OVER-pick favorites in Pick'ems.

Remember, out of 13 games this week, there were just 4 Vegas favorites of more than 3.5 points.

And while a 3-point favorite is still a "favorite", the implied win probability is only 60% or so for 3-point favorites.

But you wouldn't know this from our WeeWoo Weekly Pick'em picks...

• Rams (3.5-point favorites): 85% of picks
• Bucs (-2.5): 83%
• Browns (-3.5): 77%
• Raiders (-2.5): 75%
• Packers (-1): 73%

The implication here is that picking the other side (the "underdog") in every one of these games would be a better position than picking the favorites, when you consider our pick rates.

Commish loves the Packers but 73%?! Vegas rates the game as a literal toss-up.

But let's not beat ourselves up too much. This is a thing everywhere. And it's why you hear about sportsbooks cashing in when underdogs do well, and getting hammered when favorites do well.

Geno Smith has started 57 NFL games. Today is the first time he's been favored by a touchdown or more.

PUT SOME RESPECT ON THE MAN'S NAME.

And I know you want Commish to bust out our historical pick win rate on Geno Smith starts. We're good, but we're not THAT good (yet).

A whopping 45% of us picked the Patriots (vs. Bills) in Loser Survivor.

So is it official? The Bill Belichick mystique is fully gone? Evidenced by piling on his opponent in a HOME DIVISIONAL GAME?

Billy B, from the depths of Gillette Stadium at halftime (Pats 13, Bills 3): DO YOU LIKE MY CACKLE?

Through 6 weeks of Survivor picking, the AFC East has been our clear best division, and the AFC South has been our clear worst.

We're 6,824-232 (97% win rate) when picking AFC East teams in BFIG, and 762-2,020 (27%) when picking AFC South teams.

There's no grand Commish theory here, but it IS true that these divisions have generally followed this script.

The AFC East has the best (Bills), 4th (Pats), and 7th (Dolphins) teams in BFIG history in terms of pick win rate. And this year is only adding to the success.

Our other pools had big Seattle picking, but not AS big as our BFIG rate.

The Seahawks picking numbers:

• 37% in Survivor #2 (top)
• 94% in WeeWoo (second highest, after the Bills)
• 46% in All 32 OAD (top, though we pick 2 teams per week here)
• 14% on Geno in QB OAD (top)
• 11% on Cards in Loser Survivor (3rd, though a bunch had already used the Cards)

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@MayTheFavrthBeWithYou (Broncos, BIG Survivor): "IN RUSS WE… HRRUUUUUUUUGHHHHFFFFF!!!… (wipes puke from face) TRUST! "
Commish says: From what do you derive trust? How do you watch football? What do you know that we don't? WILL YOU WRITE A BOOK ON MOXIE?!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@EWD (Packers, BIG Survivor): "It’s the week I’ve waited for. The week I pick the Packers. Let me be clear I am not confident in this pick but if there’s a time to pick them (for me) it’s this week, road game be damned. The Broncos are terrible this is true, Sean Payton might be the most unlikable coach in the NFL, and don’t get me started on Chef Russ Wilson. Good for him with Ciara though, seriously, nicely done Russ... I’m convinced Jordan Love is going to be great, this is solely because I want him to be. I’m also convinced there isn’t a game we can’t lose.
Exhibit 1) Falcons vs Packers - up 12 points late and then we helped Desmond Ridder look like Steve McNair. That was neat.
Exhibit 2) We lost to the Raiders while Jimmy G’s brain was still firming up like some delicious Jello Shooters for a spooky Halloween party. Double neat.
Exhibit 3) we're 2-4. Triple neat…
I love the Packers, I love that we’re a young growing team, I love Love, we just aren’t good/consistent yet. Yet. YET. To help my beloved team I will be exclusively drinking Old Milwaukee this week. It’s an old family secret for Packers success. That or Point Original but I digress. Go Pack Go!"
Commish says: Am I crying from pain, Love love, beautiful poetry, irrational overflowing optimism, jello shot memories, the fact I'm not married to Ciara, or simply OCEAN-DEEP APPRECIATION FOR THIS PACKERS TRIBUTE PICK (AND COMMENT)?

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Schonday (Rams, BIG Survivor): "From where I stand, I think the reason why there are those major upsets comes down to one word. Pride. Us armchair fans are always looking for the best matchups so we can win, whether it's for fantasy, for eliminators or for betting in general. We tend to forget that there are professionals on both sides of the field. Think the Browns didn't know they were 9.5 point dogs? At home, no less? Or as we saw Sunday night there is something going on between Daboll and McDermott? Pride has to be a factor. Can we figure out how many points it's worth? Is there any way to quantify it? If there was, I'd be looking away from the Bills this week. Belichick still trying to get to 300 wins...the close call against former OC last week...everyone writing them off...9 point underdog. Will history repeat itself?"
Commish says: Brb, hiring a team of 30 data scientists to intensely study PRIDE and put a point spread value on it. By "brb" I mean see you in 10 years. REMEMBER ME!!!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@DUERtheCHOSEN1 (WeeWoo): "Lions kick a 67 yard fg in Baltimore for revenge win"
Commish says: If EITHER team lines up for a 65+ yarder at the buzzer, this instantly becomes the best "football as theater" moment of the year.

MORE COMMENTS

@cgoldstone (Raiders, Survivor #2): "In Brian Hoyer we trust"
Commish says: Seriously, WHEN DID WE REDEFINE TRUST?

@Deacon (Broncos, Survivor #2): "So after several years on this site and countless emails from the Commish, I finally clicked on the Golden Spreadsheet link. Wow. If you've never done this before, take a look. It is a roadmap to Moxie nirvana - I mean, the bottom of it is. We're two weeks into second chance, and the bottom twelve teams have a grand total of one pick amongst them. This is how you zig when everyone else has zagged. But this is only the beginning of the analysis. Some of the teams are idle, and many are playing in divisional matchups. Some are road teams. Applying all golden rules, patterns emerge. This week, without question, BRONCOS BY A BILLION!"
Commish says: We definitely have NOT redefined Moxie because Moxie is perfect and so, in this moment, is @DEACON.

@mcieslak2389 (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "I think we’re officially deep enough a little dialogue may be apropos (that’s what she said). I’m submitting this Tuesday and not looking back. Am I breaking a rule with a divisional game? … Yup. Do I feel good going against the oddly frisky Cardinals two weeks in a row? … I do not. Will this bite me in ass?… Almost definitely. I got nothing else though with 6 teams on bye. I’m the guy who stopped at the little gas station to buy Bud Light Limes and all they have is Ice House and Colt 45. So I’m taking the Colt 45. I don’t even know if Colt 45 is better than Ice House. I guess we shall find out this Sunday. "
Commish says: If we don't hear from you again, do we need to contact your family or the PR rep for Colt 45?

@Shaggybrak (Giants, Survivor #2): "I would like to meet someone who picks based upon the confidence of the team they pick versus the confidence that the other teams will suck. Sure, I wanna pick the team that goes against the giAnts all season but as we just saw and apparently need to be reminded: there are 32 teams in the NFL rostering 55 young men who beat out 1000's of talented young men who played in college. The young men who didn't make the roster can do superhuman feats of strength, skill and speed and yet some of them aren't good enough to be on a practice squad. I went to UNL during the glory years and took Bowling to satisfy my PE requirement. I'm not saying who on the Huskers took the class too but I am going to say they literally grabbed my paper from me when we took a scoring and history of bowling class, non-credited, quiz. One guy was receiver - you know? the little guys on the field, and his legs were like two teenagers wrapped in bungie cords around a small horse. The other guys? They were linemen who tossed 16lbs bowling balls like they were playing cup pong. I did not let them cheat: I willingly participated because they could eat me in two bites with a side of Dorothy Lynch salad dressing. And no... NONE of them made the pros despite being 4 year starters on a Championship Team. The giAnts may suck this year, but those 55 men are para-humans who play every week at a levels that normal humans have no understanding of. Spontaneous Combustion is what happens when a normal human, like me, thinks too long about survivor and changes their mind to pick the Giants. I may not be here next week as I'm smelling smo"
Commish says: Shaggybrak: Making grade inflation great since he was terrified about being eaten by Cornhusker linemen in the 90s.

@LAhomer88 (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "I dislike the Seahawks. If they lose to Arizona at home and knock me out, I will ensure the next 10 generations of my family hate them more than that family in Coco hated musicians."
Commish says: FAST FORWARD. It's BFIG 2323. (Yes, 2323.) We've been doing this for 315 years. A SZN member with the username @LAhomer88v11 picks the Seahawks, coached by Peter Carroll VIII. They win. But @LAhomer88v11 misses their pick next week. They're in jail. The pick comment threatened violence that was too much - and too real-seeming - for the internet police to let slide.

@gjacot2 (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "Commish wants theories about our Survivor home-field pick advantage? I'M HERE FOR IT! Sit down for a statistics lesson kids. NO BEER IN THE CLASSROOM. Ok... maybe one cold and crispy Bud Light Lime. I am sure that selection bias in our pick behavior is the culprit. Collectively, since we're a bunch of moxie-less chumps, the majority of our picks pile onto big home favorites, overwhelmingly so at the beginning of the season. As the season wears on, our ability to pick said favorites becomes limited, but the home win % has already been more or less "locked in" by all the early pick volume. We're literally "selecting" for a higher home win %, because that's the most commonly-employed strategy to survive week-over-week. I'll be providing Commish with a full mathematical breakdown of this theory, mostly because I do this shit for a living and apparently I have nothing better to do with my life. Oh and... go Seahawks, I guess? Yeah, let's go with them. "
Commish says: THIS THEORY IS UNDER EVALUATION. AND MY CLASSROOM SERVES BUD LIGHT LIME WITH EXTRA LIME.

@James_hunter (Raiders, BIG Survivor): "What to do when you can’t pick against Jersey? I could go with the biggest spread, but the only significantly high spreads are division games, so that’s out. After that my go to is picking against the worst teams I can, which gives the options of either the Packers or the Raiders, neither of whom inspire a whole lot of confidence. They’re playing against the Broncos and Bears respectively, and the spreads are both at or below a field goal. So I decided to take inspiration from Commish’s commentary on my pick the other week. I showed both the Packers and the Raiders logos to my 6 year old nephew Link and I asked him which one he liked better. He picked the Raiders, so that’s my pick."
Commish says: Can we get a 6-year-old kid some GLASSES, please? He's clearly crying out for help by selecting the Raiders logo as being cooler than the Packers logo. How can I read your kid's actions better than you, Hunter? DO BETTER.

@dgsaites (Raiders, BIG Survivor): "BFIG haiku:
Ice Cube likes one team
The Bears are a disaster
Ice Cube's choice is mine"
Commish says: GET ICE CUBE IN THE POOL!!!

@danrizzolo119 (Bills, BIG Survivor): "I know, Commish. Division game. Road team. Golden rules. I got it. But ya know what? I DONT WANNA HEAR IT!! Have you seen this board? What do you want from us?!? The only pick on the board that checks off all the golden rules in Rams over Steelers. If Commish doesn’t have the Rams this week, he’s a fraud!"
Commish says: *Checks notes in a friend's survivor pool where Commish is still alive* ... My pick: THE LOS ANGELES RAMS.

@wettengal (Rams, BIG Survivor): "Didn’t realize I was doing it but apparently I’ve gone with strategy #1. Staring down the barrel of a lot of miserable teams if I make it through this week… "
Commish says: Alas, if you survive this week, you're within range of cashing. And therein lies the fun of Strategy #1 (just pick the best team/matchup every week) - it CAN get you to the money, and be a lot of fun along the way!

@Moondogs (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Picking a ROAD team in a DIVISIONAL game against my beloved Patriots! How can something so WRONG feel SO right! IN THE BILLS WE TRUST!!!"
Commish says: Why is the Hedge of Happiness machine rumbling? What is all that smoke? The Hedge of Happiness machine is overloaded. DOES ANYONE KNOW A HoH MACHINE MECHANIC?

@crashfu14 (Seahawks, Survivor #2): "Of his "speed," Peyton Manning was once told that he couldn't run out of sight in a week. I like that. It has that "you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f***ing boat" vibe to it. Mean-spirited but with a ring of truth."
Commish says: It's no wonder Peyton "clothes are bone dry despite falling off the boat TWICE" Manning was awful in the pros.

@gmowat43 (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "Ugh. Never trust a sea chicken from the Pacific Northwest. But a red bird with two broken wings from Arizona?? I mean, this has to be the play. Especially when you look at the upcoming gauntlet that the sea chickens are about to encounter. This IS the week to play Seattle. Don’t let me down!"
Commish says: DOES THE AVIARY HOST SCOUTING TRIPS?

@shaunlat (Patriots, Loser Survivor): "Billicheck is on the way out. Bills help him pack."
Commish says: If this happens AND the Bills fail to win the AFC this year... do they hire Belichick?

@PCH (Cardinals, Loser Survivor): "Hawks don’t fail me now!! Give DK Metcalf two mouthpieces to prevent him from jawing at anyone."
Commish says: BUT HOW WILL THIS WORK

@resendmj (Packers, BIG Survivor): "I don't love, Love this week"
Commish says: YOU NEED TO LOVE HARDER

@ekahn93 (Bucs and Rams, All 32 OAD): "I was checking my email eagerly awaiting my William Shatner "Shatner Clause" Christmas Album (yes it's real) from Amazon. So since I was already wasting time on nonsense, I decided to read the weekly SZN email. What a mistake that was. I saw that I'm tied for 1st place in this pool. My psyche is already fragile preparing for the Phillies to rip my heart out again. Now I’m going to try to get cute with my picks and probably choose a team on the bye and like the Broncos. Then again, the Broncos are due. Hmmm…"
Commish says: You know what fixes an ailing psyche? Sending Commish Shatner Christmas album gifts.

@YikesVikes (Bucs and Seahawks, All 32 OAD): "The Seahawks crossed nine time zones and flew nearly 5,300 miles before landing in Munich. The Bucs crossed only six, but they still must travel nearly as far (4,996 miles) as Seattle because of Tampa's southern latitude. Does the NFL belong in Germany?"
Commish says: No but if TV execs were intrigued enough by Kazakhstan, Goodell would put a team in f***ing Kazakhstan and call them the Borats without blinking OR laughing.

@suga1360 (Raiders and Browns, All 32 OAD): "The Raiders and Browns to win?!?!? I gotta be desparate, right? Not so fast..."
Commish says: Wait but you're doing this when it's Hoyer and (maybe) PJ, too? SOMEBODY STOP THIS MAN.

@Jmazzant (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "EZpick"
Commish says: The Survivor Gods are real, Jmazz. And they do not like this.

@mick (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Even with at -9 I'm not confident in this pick. Just seems like it's one of those games that shocks everyone"
Commish says: WHEN ARE YOU PICKING THE BEARS, MICK

@JoshAllenLooksGoodInShorts (Bills, Survivor #2): "If the Bills don't bounce back with a good game to beat the Pats, I don't even want to be in this pool anymore. "
Commish says: LIES. YOU ARE LYING.

@CBeeks004 (Packers, Survivor #2): "They aren’t looking the greatest as of now; however, I’ve gotta have hope for my Packers! Plus I gotta have a little moxie to go with the 2-3 team on the road. I’ll be going to the game to root on the G-men and drinking plenty of beer like a true Wisconsinite in the Colorado desert"
Commish says: You mean like a WINS desert right? When they offer you Coors do you throw it on the ground and say "SHIT DOESN'T HOLD A CANDLE TO MILWAUKEE'S BEST"?

@Lude8282 (Packers, BIG Survivor): "Each time I pick a team in Big Survivor, my nephew asks me who I picked… I tell him… and every week his reply is 'The Balls On This Guy'... Can we make Week 8?"
Commish says: I just checked and @TheBallsOnThisGuy is an available username. GET YOUR NEPHEW IN THE POOL!!

@doctorbong (Tua, QB One-and-Done): "I predict 420 "
Commish says: HOW IS THIS NOT YOUR COMMENT EVERY WEEK

@WuYorkYankees (WeeWoo): "Anyone who wants $$$ you can look at my picks and see the future. I got a crystal ball, it's called a Gravity Bong."
Commish says: HAVE YOU MET @DOCTORBONG

@spicymilk (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Get your shit together Josh"
Commish says: (NODDING)

@LeviLeo (WeeWoo): "I bet the main reason the police keep people away from a plane crash is they don't want anybody walking in and lying down in the crash stuff, then, when somebody comes up, act like they just woke up and go, "What was THAT?!""
Commish says: (VIGOROUSLY NODDING)

@pgawne (WeeWoo): "Going back to letting my daughter make the picks, had to overrule her though with the Rams at home against the Steelers. "
Commish says: DON'T STIFLE YOUR DAUGHTER'S GENIUS

 

Yours in football,
The Commish