Friends in football,

Week 7 looked tough on paper. It was even tougher in reality.

• The BIG Survivor lost nearly 40%.
• We averaged 5-8 in the Weekly Pick'em.
• Survivor #2 lost 52%
• Loser Survivor lost 72%!
• We went from 227 undefeateds to just 44 in our All 32 One-and-Done

Thank God for the Kansas City Swifties, as only Patrick Mahomes' huge day (much of it to Travis Kelce) salvaged an above-average performance in our QB One-and-Done.

It's always possible we'll see a worse week, but Commish has been doing this a long time, and that was likely the worst of it this year.

Lick those wounds, tap your Ochocinco fathead three times for good luck,and try adding two extra limes to your Bud Light Lime this weekend. ONWARD.

RESULTS SUMMARY

The BIG Survivor (BFIG) results

• Survival record: 1,922-1,216
• Worst loss: Bills (13%) to Pats
• Best Squad(s): Just 56 squads left with 3+ survivors (and thus the max score of 21 wins)

Survivor #2 results

• Survival record: 2,827-3,038
• Worst loss: Bills (20%) to Pats
• Best Squad(s): Still early. 108 squads have 9 wins (3+ survivors) through three weeks

Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo) results

• Weekly winner(s): Heading into MNF, there was a logjam at 10 wins. Everyone had the Niners... well, everyone except @ctitterington33. MOXIE PAYS, PEOPLE. @ctitterington33 gets all of the weekly haul for finishing 11-2
• Best Squad(s): A tough week made the race even tighter. "Tommy's Teasers" joins "DFS Sweatshop" at the top with 209 wins. But a full 65 squads are within 10 wins of the lead!
• Overall leader(s): @Lejeandary1 is now joined by @Jricci1491 and @Nuttyguy123 at 75 wins

QB One-and-Done results

• Top passer: Patrick Mahomes (424 yards; 305 picks)
• Weekly average: 267 yards per pick (11 above the average QB performance) 
• Best Squad(s): "BLOODGATE" has ascended the throne with 6,672 yards. "Tommy's Teasers" is 64 yards back
  Overall leader(s): @dcwiek held on to the top spot with a Mahomes pick, but the lead is still just 11 yards over @pbucktax

Loser Survivor Brought to You by The OddsBreakers results

• Survival record: 191-492. Ouch
• Worst win: Pats (45%) beat Bills
• Best Squad(s): Just TWO squads have at least 3 survivors (and thus 21 wins): "Church of Kirk Cousins" (lol) and "BLOODGATE"

"All 32" One-and-Done results

• W/L record: 2,322-2,792 - our first sub-.500 week
• Overall leader(s): We went from 227 undefeateds to just 44. My prediction of "we'll be at 0 by Thanksgiving" is looking mighty good
• Best Squad(s): "Northern New Yorkers" and "Stonemarkers" are tied with 27 wins each (out of a possible 30)

COMMISH COMMENTARY

Week 7 was a classic "one path" week, where only one of the big picks won (Seattle), and thus it's now likely that our BIG Survivor champ will have picked Seattle in Week 7.

Seattle was our first Majority Pick of the year, at 53%. But even more startlingly - a whopping 87% of those who survived Week 7 were on the Seahawks.

Sure, our champ could absolutely be the lone Pats picker, one of the 3 Bears pickers, or one of the 8 Broncos pickers. (COMMISH LOVES YOU PEOPLE.)

But basic probability says they're likely to have "SEA" under Week 7.

Some notable "one path" weeks in our past:

• 2015, Week 2: 60% of survivors didn't believe Pittsburgh's dud performance in Week 1, and successfully picked them in Week 2. The Steelers were the ONLY pick in our top 7 to survive what's now known as "The Survivorpocalypse". Our 2015 champ, @dphilly, indeed had Pittsburgh in Week 2.
• 2019, Week 10: In 2019's first 2-pick week, BFIG nearly ended, as we went from 1,536 survivors to just 12. The key to success? The Ravens. 67% of those 12 survivors had Baltimore, including our eventual champ, @Calacci.
• 2022, Week 1: In our worst Week 1 ever, you either picked our top pick Baltimore, or you likely lost. 63% went down, and of those who survived, 65% took the Ravens. Our 2022 champ, @zachewing, bucked the trend by narrowly escaping with a Saints win.

Survivor picking takes a lot of skill. But yes, if a "one path" week is unknowingly barreling toward us, you also need a well-timed stroke of luck to either pick that one path, or zag hard into a Moxie pick to survive.

Commish produced a mini Golden Spreadsheet for our 44 10-0s in the All 32 One-and-Done pool.

Nobody has picked Carolina (duh, otherwise they wouldn't be 10-0 so far), but also nobody has picked the Pats (2 wins), Texans (3), Cards (1), and Titans (2).

Here's what the top of the 10-0s Golden Spreadsheet looks like:

• BUF: 93% utilization (41/44 have picked the Bills)
• MIA: 91%
• SF: 91%
• SEA: 86%
• DET: 84%
• KC: 84%
• CLE: 68%
• BAL: 66%

Those 8 teams - all picked by at least 2/3rds of our 10-0s - represent more than half of the likely playoff field at this point.

Put another way: To be 10-0 at this point is to have used a LOT of the best teams in the league (and you can't use them again). Which means a bunch of our leaders might not be undefeated for long.

(Say it with Commish!) ... IT'S ANYONE'S GAME!

Yours in football,
The Commish