Friends in football,

Sometimes I wish I could rewind 10 years and start a podcast called "Are the Chargers Good?"

Not an episode name, mind you. The entire podcast.

People would have laughed. "Look at this guy with his cute meme."
But then the next year, we would have had relevant content. And the next year, more relevant content. Fast forward to 2023... STILL RELEVANT CONTENT.

Maybe it's not too late. Anyone want to be my co-host? If part of the gig is interviewing diehard Chargers fans (the real ones; not the "also a diehard Vikings fan" ones), how many episodes until we run out of fans?

RELATED: The 2-4 Los Angeles Chargers are our top pick in BIG Survivor. They have a negative point differential, and are playing a team also with 2 wins and a similar point differential.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE. LET'S MOVE ON.

COMMISH COMMENTARY

I mean, are we SURE that the Chargers are better than the Bears?

Chicago has had a few clunkers, to be sure. And they're starting a guy who was playing against Colorado School of Mines last year.

But look at the Bears' last three games:

• WIN 40-20 at Commanders
• LOSS 19-13 vs Vikings
• WIN 30-12 vs Raiders

That last one, 30-12 over Vegas, was with Tyson Bagent at QB for the full game.

I get that there aren't many better opportunities to pick the Chargers. And Commish LOVES boldness.

But we'll have to wait till next week's episode of "Are the Chargers Good?" to parse whether this was the right move.

Our "All 32" One-and-Done - where you must pick each team exactly ONCE (so, 32 picks), and most wins is the champ - is like what Survivor picking would be like if we had no inhibitions.

It's two picks per week from here on out, and while the Chargers were again the top pick (39%) - Commish gets it! - the HOUSTON TEXANS were the second pick at 22%.

Houston's BFIG Survivor pick rate? A measly 3%.

Of course, in BFIG you don't have to pick all 32 teams. But if it goes deep, you have to get close!

And really in any BFIG Title Belt scenario, you're probably picking Houston (currently 3-3) at some point, right?

The Texans are at the 0-6 Panthers. Find me a better week to take 'em. I'll wait.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

After last week's Pick'em trainwreck, did we learn anything re: piling on slight favorites?

NO, SIR.

Let's review what Commish wrote in last week's PICKS email. This is a literal quote:

While a 3-point favorite is still a "favorite", the implied win probability is only 60% for 3-point favorites. So when you consider our pick rates below, the implication is that picking the other side (the "underdog") in every one of these games would be a better position than picking the favorites:

• • Rams (3.5-point favorites): 85% of picks
  • Bucs (-2.5): 83%
  • Browns (-3.5): 77%
  • Raiders (-2.5): 75%
  • Packers (-1): 73% 

I'm not ALWAYS this smart, but the underdog indeed won four of those five games. And the fifth - Browns over Colts - was arguably handed to the Browns by the refs.

We averaged 5-8 last week (lol), in large part because of piling on the above five favorites.

This week? Let's look:

• Vikings (1.5-point favorites): 76% of picks
• Texans (-3.5): 76%
• Jets (-3): 73%
• Seahawks (-3.5): 72%
• Colts (+2.5): 62%

How'd that Colts-Saints pick rate get in there?!

So, again, if you've picked the underdog in any of the Vikings, Texans, Jets, and Seahawks games... statistically speaking (so, implied win probability vs. our Pick'em pick rate) you're in the better position.

Commish just built a new QB One-and-Done stat that he LOVES.

We take the % of total earned yards in the pool that a QB has produced (so, total picks x avg weekly yards when picked) and subtract the % of total picks on that QB.

Basically, it's (performance (minus) utilization).

If the stat is positive, that QB has done numbers for us. If the stat is negative, that QB has been (on average) a poor pick for us.

Here's the "leaderboard" through Week 7:

• 1) Tua (+1.6%)
• 2) Mahomes (+1.3%)
• 3) Kirky (+1.2%)
• 4) Herbert (+0.3%)
• 5) Goff (+0.3%)
• ...
• 31) Love (-0.5%)
• 32) Burrow (-0.5%)
• 33) Russ (-0.5%)

It's fascinating - but also matches general observation so far - that only 3 QBs have been elite (in passing yardage terms), and everyone else is in this general mushy soup.

Tua, Kirky, and Mahomes have been picked heavily... and they've put up BIG numbers almost every week. Herbert has been picked just as heavily, but while he's been pretty good, his performance doesn't compare to the top 3.

Also, can you imagine if I'd have told you before the SZN that Burrow would be #32 at this point?

It's part that he's been "meh" and part that we've also picked him a lot, expecting him to return to form.

And... sorry, Russ. I've got no good news for you, man.

After the Bills' loss last week, they're still the all-time top BFIG team by pick success rate... but just barely.

Picks on the Bills are now 16,078 - 1,470 all-time in BIG Survivor. Good for a 92% pick success rate.

The Ravens and Packers are both at 90%. The gap has shrunk considerably.

When you consider the Ravens have a lot more total wins (20,192 successful BFIG picks - most of any team), they're probably the answer to "Who's the best BFIG team of all time?" at this exact moment.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@MayTheFavrthBeWithYou (Panthers, BIG Survivor): "I am Moxie. Moxie is me. OHHHMMMMM!!!!!!!!!"
Commish says: LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, FRESH OFF A BRONCOS MOXIE VICTORY LAST WEEK, MAY I PRESENT TO YOU OUR FIRST EVER BACK-TO-BACK MOXIE CHAMPION OF THE WORLD!!!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@ashleyness45 (Jets and Chiefs, Survivor #2): "J-E-T-S! JETS JETS JETS! I mean, it's technically a home game, right? Hoping my team doesn't make me drink - more than normal. Ho-ly shit. As a huge jets fan, am I really f-ing doing this? Taking the Jets in a survivor pool... hasn't happened in forever. But I keep reading all this moxie talk, so I figured why the F not. I really hope I’m not shooting myself in the foot (Plaxico reference, sorry not sorry). Oh yeah, and the Chiefs. I mean the Broncos are terrible, right? I just still can’t believe if we are in a season where we aren’t talking about how shitty the Jets are. A girl could get used to this."
Commish says: Best stream of consciousness comment of the year, hands down. Have you considered livestreaming your experience watching Jets games? I can see the marketing now: "DO YOU ENJOY BEING WRECKED WITH ANXIETY FOR 3 STRAIGHT HOURS? DO YOU ENJOY HERO NARRATIVES ABOUT A GUY WHO ISN'T EVEN PLAYING INSPIRING HIS TEAM BY... STANDING UPRIGHT? BOY DO I HAVE THE YOUTUBE CHANNEL FOR YOU!"

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@JETaylor21 (Jets and Eagles, Survivor #2): "So, here we are. I’m breaking a bunch of rules this week (intercity rivalry game plus picking my own team in one, and a divisional rival game in the other). But this comment has nothing to do with the picks I made, and is more about what picks you should NOT make. I mean, we all know the basic rules of picking. You send them out every year. But when do new rules get added to that manifesto? Let me present exhibit A. This year, 8 weeks in, is there any clear favorite? The best odds (KC) are +450. That’s a pretty high number for the favorite 8 weeks in. Last year, Buffalo was the favorite at +200. That is just to point out no one knows who the best team is. And yeah, the Panthers are bad. And you should probably just pick against them. But you don’t want to get caught the one time they win. And this brings me to the main point. New rules! Maybe it’s a just this year thing. But… we’ve had this thing this year where coming out of the previous week, we crown Team X as the best team only for them to lose in embarrassing fashion the following week. Let's recap:
Starting in Weeks 1-3. The Jets shock the world, beating Buffalo - a game in which many thought the Jets would lose even with Rodgers, and for sure would lose with Zach. The Cowboys roll over both NY teams in the first two weeks outscoring the 2 teams 70-10 and blanking the Giants. So everyone is all on the Cowboys. Me included. Only for them to turn around and knock me and a bunch of others out the main pool by losing to Arizona in Week 3.
The following week, much of the talk was on the Browns after they beat down Tennessee. This is also the week the Dolphins score 70. Both teams are talked about as Super Bowl contenders all week. What happens Week 4? Both get blown out. Browns 28-3 by the Ravens. And the Bills, who lost to a Zach Wilson led Jets, spanked Miami 48-20.
This now makes the Bills the talk of the town. They’ve fixed themselves. Everything is fine. Week 5? They go to London and their bridge falls down as they lose to the Jags.
Coming out of Week 5, it’s the 49ers everyone is talking about. Brock the Clock looks great. And it seems as if they are the unstoppable force… until Week 6 when they lose to the Browns and then again the following week to the Vikings (who we thought were bad but might just be the good bad team?).
So… coming out of Week 6, it’s the Lions everyone is getting excited about now. They have the season opener upset against KC. A few nice blow out wins. Then take care of TB on the road in a game many thought they’d lose. And what happened last week? They get stomped by the Ravens.
Now the Ravens are all anyone is talking about this week. And they are going against Arizona. Have we really not learned anything through 8 weeks?
I don’t have enough moxie to pick AZ. But I’ll tell you you should not pick the Ravens. IT'S A TRAP! So instead… I’m breaking the other rules in some rogue attempt to appease the survival gods."
Commish says: This reminds me of the 2014-15 NFL playoffs. Wildcard: Cowboys beat the Lions in absolutely gut-wrenching fashion for the Lions. Divisional: Packers return the favor to the Cowboys (Dez caught it). Conference: Seahawks return the favor to the Packers (onside kick). Super Bowl: Pats return the favor to the Seahawks (WHY NOT HAND IT TO MARSHAWN?!?).

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Crayzeejew (Colts, Loser Survivor): "Minshew Mania 2023! Half the fun, twice the heartbreak!!"
Commish says: I lol'd. PUT IT ON A T-SHIRT!

MORE COMMENTS

@katbutt (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "My husband said he felt confident in this pick. Getting the dog house ready just in case "
Commish says: Oh God. And it's your husband's team, too. Do you have friends on call? Medics? MISS CLEO?!

@Ryanmiller727 (49ers, Loser Survivor): "Please dear god."
Commish says: The Moxie is STRONG in us this week. Commish needed to buy more tissues after all my tears of sheer elation and pride.

@kfeltes (Weekly Pick'em): "Watch out buckos, we got the hottest picks in feet ball coming at ya. Absolutely spicy games ahead. I'm talking penalty shots, dozens of hat tricks and even a game decided by a sudden death between Magic Johnson and Jimmy Carter."
Commish says: WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN ALL MY LIFE

@LAhomer88 (Lions, BIG Survivor): "I’m sure everyone will take Detroit this week. I’d love to know if the majority pick has ever been the Lions in the history of this competition."
Commish says: 2016, Week 14. 272 survivors left (this is before we moved to 2 picks in Week 10), 60% took the 8-4 Lions over the 3-9 Bears. 20-17 Lions. But also, YOU UNDERESTIMATE THE APPEAL OF JUSTIN HERBERT'S GOOD LOOKS.

@rnorwood (Stroud, QB One-and-Done): "Ask your doctor if The SZN is right for you (Sezenimide Nitrate) Side effects may include but are not limited to: Nausea, prolonged anxiety, fleeting euphoria, mixed feelings of depression, dizziness, heartburn, flatulence, water weight gain and spontaneous combustion. Don’t participate in the SZN if you regularly operate heavy machinery. "
Commish says: I was onboard until the flatulence. And does my blender count as heavy machinery?

@Jdblom83 (Jets and Panthers, All 32 OAD): "Trusting the QB play of Bryce Young and Zach Wilson. After this, I'm going to call Britney for some mental health tips and ask Taylor how best to stay out of the limelight."
Commish says: You forgot calling Commish for good beer recommendations.

@Hatch17 (Chargers, BIG Survivor): "Eagles and Dolphins both lose divisional games they are supposed to win (hence the rule) and Niners spit the bit one more time. If anyone else is left in BFIG with me after this week, all three teams (all of which I still have available) will be pissed off and ready to lead me to victory in the coming weeks. Thankfully the man with an extra vowel in his first name and crab legs which are not his in his pocket is not involved in the Chargers v Bears game."
Commish says: Fun fact: The English fútbol club Chelsea has been so wildly unpredictable this year that I've coined them the Jameis Winston of the EPL. They've single-handedly caused more destruction than the rest of the league combined. It makes me think: Who is the Jameis Winston of the NBA? NHL? LET'S KEEP THIS GOING.

@Shaggybrak (Pickett, QB One-and-Done): "I scrolled down to the comments section only to see the comment box say, "Oof, you sure?" And I'm like, "F*** no! Obviously since I picked Kenny Pickett"."
Commish says: The Kenny Pickett experience! "Are you sure?" "F*** no!!!"

@Jmkahn (Jets, BIG Survivor): "Jets? Really? The Jets?! Actually, my original date was with the Texans because she's one of the popular ones in school. But then I walk into the dance and I see the Jets who finally took off their glasses and let their hair down. By the rules of high school and SZN, Jets are the hotter team."
Commish says: High School is Zach Wilson's ZONE!

@crashfu14 (Weekly Pick'em): "What's all this talk about creating Artificial Intelligence. Shouldn't we first deal with the natural stupidity all around us?"
Commish says: I wonder if AI would have more Moxie than we do, especially in WeeWoo? I DON'T WANT TO FIND OUT.

@Jzeldes (Chargers, BIG Survivor): "I don’t know why I’m compelled to get cute and bet on a losing chargers team this deep into it when there are still safe bets like the ravens and dolphins on the board for me. Is it bc I think the entire team is playing for their professional lives? Is it bc I can’t see Justin Herbert being out played by Tyson Bagent? Is it bc of my self-destructive tendencies? Or is it just my year BAYBEEEEEE"
Commish says: SZN T-shirt alert! FRONT: Big Al Davis face wearing the "Deal with it" meme shades. BACK: "Just my BFIG year BAYBEEEEE."

@Sportstacular_Vernacular (Lions, BIG Survivor): "The Lions be ANGRY! My brain says Ravens, but the Commish's rules, basic anger math and Jimmy G coming off injury suggest it's RAWR not CAW this week."
Commish says: Does Jimmy G win in ANY version of an NFL "who would win in a fight"?

@Rnidtowner (Texans, BIG Survivor): "Matt Canada’s burner account said these guys were a juggernaut so here goes."
Commish says: GET MATT CANADA'S BURNER ACCOUNT IN THE POOL!!

@dgsaites (Geno, QB One-and-Done): "One and done Haiku:
F*** yourself ice cube
why did the bears win that game
whatever go pack."
Commish says: "Whatever, go Pack" is the finest ending line to haiku that's ever been written.

@ekahn93 (Cowboys and Lions, Survivor #2): "Some pickup lines I'd like to see be used: "Sorry I didn't meet you sooner. My ex was from Atlanta and I couldn't get Ridd-of-er." | "Are you from Washington? Because I can't remember what your actual name is." | "Are you from New York? Because I want to say the L word to you." | "Is your name Justin Fields? Because I keep running by you and can't pass this opportunity." | "Your name must be Kirk Cousins, because you showed up when I least expected you." | "Are you a Cowboys fan? Because I want to drag out this relationship for 25 years and never give you a ring." | "I'd like to Push your Tush but I hear that's going to be illegal soon.""
Commish says: The Kirk Cousins one would do numbers in Minnesota, whether it was a man or woman delivering the line.

@Schonday (Weekly Pick'em): "Last week I tried to save people from taking the Bills. Pride is REAL people. This week the only choice has to be Carolina. Look at the facts. Last winless team... at home... off a bye... top two picks of the draft with #2 being touted as potential ROY. Thielen goes wild and the Bryce is right."
Commish says: SPICY.

@mlyman (Cowboys and Falcons, All 32 OAD): "Idk I’m in Sicily."
Commish says: GET THE SICILIANS IN THE POOL!! (Also, happy honeymoon!)

@cegriffi (Chargers and Lions, Survivor #2): "Chargers likely to Charger here, but as a former Dr. Squatch employee and proud endorser of Herbs, feels like the best time to pick him. Only time will tell. Also, despite records mattering more than perception, one can never feel confident picking Goff and the Lions, even if he’s not stat padford. "
Commish says: I didn't know Herbert schlepped manly soaps but I AM EXTREMELY UNSURPRISED THAT HE DOES.

@OJ4MVP (Lions, BIG Survivor): "I DO NOT ENJOY PICKING THE LIONS ON A MONDAY GAME BUT HERE WE ARE"
Commish says: THE CHANCE ONLY COMES ONCE EVERY 5 YEARS, BRO.

@Fooster (Allen, QB One-and-Done): "500 yd day is due!"
Commish says: LET'S NOT GET GREEDY.

@BG (Chargers, BIG Survivor): "Gd chargers are going to F me again -San Diegan "
Commish says: NO NOTES.

@thebigligocki (Cowboys and Chargers, All 32 OAD): "Do I have to pick the cowboys???"
Commish says: THAT'S HOW THIS POOL WORKS, BIG LIGO.

@ryovercash (Bills and Chargers, Survivor #2): "what's that phrase..."fool me once, shame on the bills. fool me twice, dude what the f*** are you thinking?""
Commish says: BUFFALO!!

@fronczek5000 (Ravens and Chargers, Survivor #2): "WAKE THE F*** UP BUFFALO!!!"
Commish says: BUFFALOOOOOOOOO!

 

Yours in football,
The Commish