Friends in football,

Never have we EVER been so concentrated on the top two picks.

Remember, this is year 15 of the BIG Survivor. (And yes, we've been doing Survivor #2, fka "Second Chance Survivor" for 15 years, too.)
53% on the Browns (vs. Cards). 38% on the Saints (vs. Bears). That's a whopping 91% of BIG Survivor picks on just two teams.

In Survivor #2, both teams were picked by at least 70% of us (as it's in 2-pick territory).

If you're alive and NOT on the Browns or Saints, you're gonna have a blast rooting against them today.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

This is Arizona's second time being picked to lose to a Majority Pick in BIG Survivor this year. Is 2 the record?

Nope!

In 2019, the Miami Dolphins went on this incredible (dubious) run:

• Week 3, at Dallas (64% picked the Cowboys): LOSS
• Week 7, at Buffalo (67%): LOSS
• Week 10, at Indy (83%): WIN!

That third time, the FitzMagic-led Dolphins - 1-7 at the time - saw the raging confidence picking against them in BIG Survivor and decided that was enough.

They picked Brian Hoyer (yes, Brian Hoyer) three times and won, 16-12, in a result that was somehow NOT a scorigami.

Our Survivor #3 picking tells us our confidence level in the Browns and Saints isn't QUITE as high as BFIG picks would suggest.

We're 33% on the Browns and 26% on the Saints. That measly total of 59% is a full 32% below the BIG Survivor pick rate.

Though, remember that Survivor #3 is the Wild West of survivor picking. We can't necessarily look at our pick distribution and be like "YUP. RATIONAL THOUGHTS RIGHT THERE."

In fact, maybe that should be Survivor #3's tagline: "LESS LOGIC. MORE YOLO."

Here are some fun picks from the bottom of the Survivor #3 board today:

• A full 20 people on the Packers, who have lost four straight including two to the Broncos and Raiders.
• 7 on the 1-6 Panthers.
• 6 on the Bears, who are why SO many of us are picking the Saints to beat them.
• 2 on the Cardinals, who, lol.

Our boy @MayTheFavrthBeWithYou did NOT attempt to go for three straight Moxie Award wins.

After winning on the Broncos (then 1-5) and the Panthers (then 0-6) in BIG Survivor the past two weeks, Favrth fled to relative safety on the Browns this week.

Commish was reallllly ready for you to pick a side of that Giants-Raiders game, man.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@BigDaddy (Steelers and Packers, Survivor #2): "BigDaddy is rolling the dice. Two high ceiling squads that need to restart. Prediction: Winners in these games hit the playoffs while the losers hit the reboot button."
Commish says: DAD WHAT ARE YOU DOING

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@PackerGuy10 (Saints, Survivor #3): "The Browns should be the obvious pick but they are also the most likely team in the NFL to figure out a way to lose to a guy named Clayton Tune"
Commish says: I'm sorry, Browns fans. I didn't want to do it AND THEN I DID.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@YikesVikes (Browns and Saints, BIG Survivor): "Each of the top 11 Super Bowl favorites are either off, or play against each other. Otherwise I would never pick these two teams. "
Commish says: What a stat! It perfectly explains our record-setting picking avalanche on two middling teams.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Jimbo (Saints, BIG Survivor): "The Saints are an obvious lock this week. Big spread, QB trouble with Chicago and, come on, it's THE 2023 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS! We're talking about a team that...

• ...lost two of the last three to Jacksonville (fine) and Houston (hmm) ...lost 26-9 at home vs the Bucs (HMM!)
• ...blew a 17 point halftime lead to go down to the actual 2023 Packers 18-17 (HHHMMM!!!)
• ...has a rock solid 4-4 record with a 1 point win over the Titans and 3 point win over the Panthers (HHHHHMMMMM?).

Otherwise it's them witnessing the self-immolation of Mac Jones in Foxboro and last week's 11-point win over Minshew Mania in Indy. So it's a team lucky to be better than 2-6 that hasn't won back to back weeks since Week 2. SIGN ME UP."
Commish says: This... this... this is a pick comment in SUPPORT of picking the Saints?!

MORE COMMENTS

@kempsoos (Commanders, Survivor #3): "I just need one good game from them post fire sale. I expect Survivor #3 to be a wild ride and I don't need them on the ledger when my 5 pick week comes around."
Commish says: This man gets how to do Survivor #3!

@morea1ms (Raiders, Survivor #3): "0-2 in Survivors, 0-1 in Loser Survivor... Got this one all mapped out, I'm sure I'll lose this week"
Commish says: AS DOES THIS MAN!

@gjacot2 (Saints, BIG Survivor): "It is weird that I wish it were Week 10 so I could pick both the Browns and the Saints and avoid the pain of having picked the wrong game here in Week 9? Same point spreads, terrible teams with rookie QBs on the road against great defenses... Feels like a coin flip to me. After a few days of paralysis-by-analysis, I guess I'm going with the Saints. They wouldn't let... *checks notes*... Carson Bagent... roll into Nawleans and do them dirty, would they? Maybe I can find a way to send Derek Carr a note to let him know that my BIG Survivor life is at stake here. Talk about pre-game motivation, right? GET THEM PUMPED, DEREK. THIS ISN'T A JOKE."
Commish says: THIS. When you have two games that check every single one of the Survivor Golden Rules... with the underdog rolling out a deep-cut backup QB... and the favorite knowing this is a KEY win for their playoff hopes... how do you decide? And if one of them (gasp) loses... can you really blame (or congratulate) yourself for picking one over the other?

@Jzeldes (Colts, BIG Survivor): "I hope that guy who picked the Broncos and the Panthers in back to back weeks wins. But for now I pick The Colts"
Commish says: All hail our Moxie hero, @MayTheFavrthBeWithYou!

@thebur (Falcons, BIG Survivor): "Because Arthur Smith’s mustache is sensational."
Commish says: MORE COMMENTS FROM YOU.

@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (Browns, Survivor #3): "Third chance??? This is like the 3rd trip to the buffet line, a 3rd buy-in at the poker table, the 3rd time trying to ride the mechanical bull for 8 seconds, or the 3rd time you tried that dance move you learned on YouTube with your girlfriend! We all know 3rd chances always end well! Hoo rah!!!"
Commish says: Never has there EVER been a third chance that didn't end FLAWLESSLY.

@dgsaites (Bills, Survivor #3): "Haiku:
I’m f***ing back babe
Turn your season around pack
God I love this so."
Commish says: Honestly surprised you ended with "so" instead of "shit" or "fire" or "mess".

@rnorwood (Saints, Survivor #3): "Did you know that the Saints are 16-1 when Taysom Hill gets 7 or more carries on the ground? Put that in your pipe and smoke it."
Commish says: HEY @STATCZAR, I'M SORRY THERE'S A NEW STAT CZAR IN TOWN.

@wettengal (PJ Walker, QB One-and-Done): "LOL. If you had told me at the beginning of this year that my choices would be between Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, Jaren Hall, Clayton Tune, and PJ Walker, I would have asked what sport you were talking about and who your emergency contact was."
Commish says: This definitely sounds more like a Ryder Cup Team than a list of starting NFL QBs. Related: We kept PJ Walker as the expected guy because does ANYONE truly believe Watson will play more than a quarter?!

@hikee44 (Saints, Survivor #3): "New life, again! The air smells a little fresher today. It's like Opening Day of baseball season (101 days until pitchers and catchers report!); everyone's got a chance! I'm fairly confident that the Bears suck, especially with a guy that played at Northeastern Central State College of West Dakota. Hoping to live on until week 10!"
Commish says: C'mon, Hikee. Birds aren't real but North Dakota and South Dakota ARE.

@Flem (Browns, Survivor #3): "This is the most depressing slate of NFL games in recent memory. How is every team bad? Can we add the option to pick a tie? Feels like there’s gonna be a tie this week."
Commish says: Mayyyy I direct you to this week's Bengals Tickets award winner

@kittywittywoo (Weekly Pick'em): "Why is there no option to pick a tie for Giants-Raiders??"
Commish says: Pretty sure we'd ACTUALLY get tie predictions for this one if we made it possible.

@Mr_Fritz (Browns and Saints, Survivor #2): "My god the Jets gave me a heart attack last week. What a putrid and horrible game for both NY teams. Whelp, onto the Browns and Saints, what could possibly go wrong!"
Commish says: If someone who picked the Jets in Week 8 goes on to win one of our Survivor pools, what a story that will be!

@JETaylor21 (Saints and Colts, Survivor #2): "Honestly thought I was KOed. I can’t be the only person who shut off the Jets game after Zach Wilson got sacked in Jets territory. And I can’t be the only Jets fan that had lost all hope for the season on that sack. I had lost so much hope I turned football off altogether and went and took a nap (to be fair…I did have a 12 hour shift starting at 6pm. Normally there would be no nap tho and I’d just be tired). I wake up and head to work. Now at work, I’m watching SNF on my phone and hear them say the Jets win the battle of NY. And I laugh and go damn. He misspoke. Bet he’s getting roasted online. And I continue on. Then…at halftime. They show the highlights. Or low lights. Whichever you want to call them. But just like that I had life again. I escaped picking my own teams (jets and browns) back to back weeks and surviving. Mind you…I for sure had thrown in the towel both weeks. And I can’t keep doing that. But also don’t have any teams left I root for. This week in general is a dart throw but there in no way panthers win 2 in a row. And I am pretty sure the bears will not score 10 on the saints D. I’m not convinced the saints score 10 either…but honestly, what am I sure of? "
Commish says: Let me addend my previous comment. "... And if @JETaylor21 goes on to win Survivor #2, WHAT A STORY THAT WILL BE!"

@tracesheehan (Browns and Patriots, Survivor #2): "Going against those who are bailing on their own season... Commanders and Cards at the top of that list. "
Commish says: NOT A BAD STRATEGY.

@blahblah (Saints and Colts, Survivor #2): "So it’s 8:45 AM on Sunday, 25 minutes before my friend is running the NYC marathon. He’s trying to get his picks in at the starting line but service is wonky. I get an emergency text that he needs me to come into his account and make his picks (I’ve been knocked out early rounds every year). If that’s not friendship, I don’t know what is, but pray for me on these picks!"
Commish says: This is so specific that you know it's true. And, for those who don't know, @blahblah is a past BIG Survivor champion. WHAT LESSONS HAVE YOU TRULY LEARNED, CHAMP?!

@DaDarkKiller (Browns, BIG Survivor): "Though the Browns offense is more doodoo garbage than DDG himself, PJ Walker doesn’t look half as bad as PJ Tucker, so he could maybe go to work against the Ari Defense, which is way worse than the Browns offense. Amari Cooper still has a complete garbage game, and without DPJ, Elijah Moore will become the new underdog of the Browns. The Browns number one regret, Kareem Hunt (not Baker or OBJ) will get absolutely bottled up, giving Jerome Ford the full backfield. Ari entire offense is garbage, and calling out names won’t do anything, but calling out Miles Garett will. What a beast, he bout to jump over every long snapper in the NFL."
Commish says: This... this... this is a pick comment in SUPPORT of picking the Browns?!

@stephmoco (Browns, BIG Survivor): "With the Cardinals likely trying a new rookie QB this week, and the Browns recently being less Browns-y than previous seasons, we’re gonna take this chance and hope it doesn’t bite me in the ass. "
Commish says: [Drop the beat] We gon' take this chance. // Hope it won't bite me in the ass. // Who wants to write the rest of this and do we have any record label titans in the pool?

@Schonday (Weekly Pick'em): "In the beginning... The Schonday Church of Pride is now open! Hallelujah! Brush away the baffling "Buffalo loses to the Pats" prediction from two weeks ago as a blind squirrel finding a nut. Did the Choice of Carolina last week make you a believer yet?!?! Why not? It's not like I'm asking for donations yet. Fine, fine. Everyone knows that 3 is a magic number. Perhaps a third display of Pride will allow you to see the dawning of a new age. Forsooth!! Let's look no further than Cincy. This being the culmination of the Queen City Miracle from last year that simultaneously scared us, had us praying,, weeping, cheering and then brought out a sense of great pride in how good people can truly be. Empathy is real people! Cincy earns a difficult win.and some additional praise. Chapter 1 Verse 1: Pride comes in many forms. To offer a fellow man strength in a time of need with no thought to yourself allows you to bathe in a sense of Pride as a part of a Collective consciousness. "
Commish says: At the start of the comment, I was like, "oh, funny bit." By the end of the comment, I'm like, "THIS MAN IS ACTUALLY STARTING A CHURCH."

@GatewayCityBlues (Weekly Pick'em): "ME: 7 Road Winners!
SZN: That's right. That's - that's good. That's good. Unless, of course, somebody comes up with 8 Road winners. Then you're in trouble, huh?
Me: No! No, no, not 8! I said 7. Nobody's comin' up with 6. Who picks 8 Road teams? You won't even get your heart goin, not even a mouse on a wheel.
SZN: That... good point.
Me: 7's the key number here. Think about it. 7-Elevens. 7 dwarves. 7, man, that's the number. 7 chipmunks twirlin' on a branch, eatin' lots of sunflowers on my uncle's ranch. You know that old children's tale from the sea. It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. Step into my office.
SZN: Why?
Me: 'Cause you're f***in' fired! "
Commish says: WHAT DID WE DO TO DESERVE THIS

@sunderlove (Weekly Pick'em): "IF Josh McDaniels can be fired anything is possible!!!!"
Commish says: We're entering that annual time period of bad team irrational confidence!!!

@MateoJD (Browns): "Last minute switch from the Saints! Hope I don’t regret this or I’ll be drinking BLLs all day! "
Commish says: Does this mean you AREN'T doing this anyway? MAKE BETTER CHOICES.

@thenige1 (Falcons, Survivor #3): "THERES A FRICKN THIRD CHANCE POOL!?!? I love it here."
Commish says: GM AND COMMISH AT YOUR SERVICE.

@Heavywaits (Saints, Survivor #3): "The Bears might Sweat some this Sunday but it’s all SuperThunderDome when the Aint’s come marching in. "
Commish says: This just needs a "TRUCKS, TRUCKS, TRUCKS!" and it'd be perfect.

@DrPriest311 (Browns and Saints, Survivor #2): "Ah shit… how did I make it this far?"
Commish says: Is this what every reader asks when they've reached this part of the weekly PICKS email?

@Listen2zyetti (Saints, BIG Survivor): "Send in the Carr!"
Commish says: It's almost time to end this email.

@ContrarianDFS (Falcons): "I'd follow that heinie anywhere. Butt seriously...Taylor & the Falcons should have the Vikings in their rear window all day long. Take a seat, Minnesota! "
Commish says: It's DEFINITELY time to end the email.

 

Yours in football,
The Commish