Friends in football,

We've reached the NFL SZN's halfway mark, which means we begin 2-picks-per-week territory in BIG Survivor and Loser Survivor. (Survivor #2 has already been at 2 picks.)

Historically, Week 10 has been an absolute bloodbath.

It's like, "Hey, Survivor Gods, what would be the absolute WORST week for a bunch of upsets to happen?" ... oh, you know, how about the first week where you must pick two teams?!

Of course, there's nothing special about Week 10 in the actual NFL. So here's to hoping 2023's Week 10 is a bit smoother than in past years...

RESULTS SUMMARY

The BIG Survivor (BFIG) results

• Survival record: 1,728-57
• Worst loss: Falcons (2%) to Vikings
• Best Squad: 51 squads left with 3+ survivors (and thus the max score of 27 wins)

Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo) results

• Weekly winner: Perfect week #2 of 2023! Five people went 14-0 and will split the weekly haul PLUS the perfection bonus. Nice work, @Pitt4life21, @SKing24, @cactus58, @dadanny, @OBJsClevelandSteamers
• Best Squad: Give it up for new leader "Mom Said So", which has two members in the Overall top 20. GREAT squad name!
• Overall leader: @Jricci1491 and @Nuttyguy123 are now joined (once again) by @otis - all at 97-35. Can someone catch these three?! 

Survivor #2 results

• Survival record: 1,596-475
• Worst loss: Falcons (13%) to Vikings
• Best Squad: Down to 44 squads with 21 wins (3+ survivors)

Survivor #3 results

• Survival record: 2,503-541
• Worst loss: Falcons (7%) to Vikings
• Best Squad(s): After one week, most squads have 3+ survivors

QB One-and-Done results

• Top passer: Good lord, C.J. Stroud (470 yards; 106 picks)
• Weekly average: 248 yards per pick (5 yards above the average QB performance)
• Best Squad: "BLOODGATE" had a bunch of Stroud pickers and is threatening to run away with this thing!
• Overall leader: @RM5589 used a big Burrow week (348 yards) to leapfrog @pbucktax (Carr, 214 yards) into 1st
• Interval 2 leader: @Redslurpy and @jriles0798 have both gone Mahomes (424 yards), Tua (324), and Stroud (470) to share the lead.

Loser Survivor Brought to You by The OddsBreakers results

• Survival record: 128-44
• Worst win: Vikings (13%) beat Falcons
• Best Squad: Three squads have two survivors standing - "NFL GOON SQUAD!", "Tommy's Teasers", and "BLOODGATE"

"All 32" One-and-Done results

• W/L record: 3,644-1,334
• Overall leader: Despite another good week, we're down to just 14 perfects. Commish stands by his "zero perfects by Thanksgiving" prediction
• Best Squad: "Buter squad" and "Balls Deep N Big TD's" (congrats on making Commish type that) have 38 wins (out of a possible 42)

COMMISH COMMENTARY

The Saints made that WAY too hard. But you have to be happy if you were a Saints picker.

The second of our two huge picks forced 5 Bears turnovers and didn't cough any up themselves... and yet the Saints still only won by a score.

@Jimbo's comment from the PICKS email rings very true - the more you study the Saints' games this year, the less confident you are in picking them.

But they were just good enough to beat the Bears, and in Survivor, nobody ultimately remembers HOW you got the wins - you just need to get 'em.

The NFL would be better with more position players kicking meaningful field goals.

If you haven't watched Texans RB Dare Ogunbowale give his team a 33-30 lead in the 4th quarter, watch it.

It's one thing to do this in a blowout. It's an entirely different thing to trot out your RB in the 4th quarter... in a tie game... when a win is absolutely CRUCIAL for your playoff hopes.

That shit should be worth 100 points in fantasy football leagues.

Even before BIG Survivor moved to 2 picks in Week 10, it's been a brutal week for us.

Check out our worst Week 10 survival rates dating back to our first BIG Survivor year (2009):

• 2019 (2 picks): 0.8% survival
• 2021 (2): 7%
• 2011 (1): 10%
• 2013 (1): 12%
• 2015 (1): 18%
• 2018 (2): 18%

That's SIX years where fewer than 20 percent of the survivors who made it to Week 10 escaped the week alive.

Let's just hope that Jameis Winston doesn't enter the Saints game Sunday. The whole pool might end if so.

C.J. Stroud's boffo performance (470 yards - a rookie record) gives us a mid-season datapoint in the "do you NEED to pick the season's best performance to win a One-and-Done pool?" debate.

That answer, seemingly, is no. (Though it absolutely helps your cause!)

Our top three in the Overall standings have been near the top for awhile, and none of them picked Stroud.

Nos. 4 and 5 did, however. As did a bunch of the people just behind that.

So what it seems to do - at least when it happens mid-season vs. at the start of the year - is tighten the standings considerably. (And Commish is HERE for that.)

If you're in the Week 10 Wins Battle pool, make sure to get your picks in!

Commish and GM love this new pool format. We create 16 matchups of teams with the same/similar record at this juncture. You pick who will end the regular season with more wins (ties broken by point differential).

At the top of the board is PHI v KC, followed by BAL v DET. At the bottom, it's NYG v NE and CAR v ARI.

NYG v NE was ALSO a matchup in the Week 2 pool we did of the same format. It's just... you know... that matchup was MUCH higher in the list.

Yours in football,
The Commish