Friends in football,

WILL LEVIS AND JOSH DOBBS, BABY!

Somehow, just 12 weeks into the season, we've arrived at The BIG Survivor coming down to... Will Levis and Josh Dobbs.

Exactly how we drew it up.

In all, we've got 66% of survivors on the 3-7 Titans (QB'd by Levis), 44% on the 6-5 Vikings (QB'd by Dobbs), and 20% on the 2-8 Patriots (QB'd by Bill Belichick's pet tortoise).

None are favored by more than 3.5 points.

Chaos SZN has arrived early in the QB-depleted 2023 NFL. And Commish is HERE for it.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

Kansas City (at Raiders) was the game we wanted but (mostly) couldn't take in BIG Survivor.

In Survivor #2, we picked KC at a 40% clip. In Survivor #3, KC was our top pick. Yet, in BFIG, only 24% of survivors COULD have picked KC if they wanted.

Half did. While the other half continues to save the Chiefs for a later battle.

Good - or suddenly lively - teams to look out for down BFIG's stretch run:

• EAGLES: Just 37% had picked the league's best team by record going into Week 12
• PACKERS: Just ONE survivor has picked them, and they have a weak remaining schedule
• RAVENS: Just 45% had picked the league's best team by point differential before this week
• BRONCOS: Just 15 survivors had picked the team with perhaps the most dramatic in-season defensive turnaround in NFL history

Can @Redslurpy cap one of the most legendary QB One-and-Done Intervals in SZN history?

Week 12 is the end of Interval 2 (Weeks 7-12). @Redslurpy has been almost impossibly dominant, averaging OVER 400 YARDS per pick in the last five weeks, and leading Interval 2 by more than 100 yards.

Their picks:

• Week 7: Mahomes (424 yards)
• Week 8: Allen (324)
• Week 9: Stroud (470)
• Week 10: Dak (472)
• Week 11: Purdy (333)
• Week 12: Lawrence (?)

Can Goldilocks bring it home for @Redslurpy, in an expected shootout with Stroud and the Texans? We're about to find out.

Data wizard and SZN member @gjacot2 has put a sizable dent in Commish's insistence that home field still matters in Survivor.

It's well-known by now that, since the 2020 Covid season, home field advantage has ceased to exist in the broader NFL. It's a more complicated question as to why. But with 4 years of data now, that data doesn't lie - home and away teams win at roughly the same rate, overall.

Commish has maintained for a few years now that, given our sizable trove of BFIG data, home field still matters in survivor picking. The gap between home pick win rate and away pick win rate has been large and VERY consistent over the BFIG years, including 2023 so far (82% vs. 64%).

@gjacot2 wondered, however, whether statistical bias might be at play. So he went to TOWN (y'all love watching football; he loves watching football AND doing mad number crunching in massive spreadsheets).

And, sure enough, he concluded in convincing fashion that selection bias toward home favorites (we pick home teams at MUCH higher rates) explains almost all of the gap in our home vs. away pick success rate in BFIG.

He DID uncover an interesting wrinkle that suggests Vegas MIGHT overvalue big road favorites - the exact type of favorite that makes big noise when they lose in BFIG, like the Cowboys did in Week 3 this year at the Cardinals - but it's a minor wrinkle in the overall story.

Here are his words:

"Home favorites are over-represented in our pick volume, and home losses feel like more of an "upset" vs. away losses. This is a function of our collective home picks being concentrated toward home favorites to a higher degree than away favorites, as a result of our belief that home teams are more likely to win than away teams.

"Without understanding the differences between NFL and BIG Survivor seasons and how our power of choice results in the manipulation of aggregated measures of performance based on survival strategy, one would indeed come away with the conclusion that home survival picks enjoy some sort of "advantage" in a way that home teams in isolation do not.

"However, I humbly resubmit the (now properly evidenced) hypothesis that selection bias toward home favorites is the primary factor in our observed home vs. away win % differential. We have also found evidence for a secondary factor hypothesized by Commish: the apparent slight overvaluing of away favorites by Vegas, based on the weighted spreads of away vs. home losses."

We have SIX games where our Pick'em percentages don't eclipse 60% for either team. This basically ensures we won't have a 16-0 champ this week.

Six toss-ups implies each of us has just a .5 ^ 6 = 1.6% chance of getting all six of those picks correct.

... and then there's still 10 more picks to get right if you want that weekly perfection bonus. PLUS, the Lions (93% pick rate) already lost.

The six toss-ups are: DEN-CLE, IND-TB, NO-ATL, LAR-ARI, HOU-JAX, and NYG-NE.

Of course Giants-Pats - the year's most disappointing matchup - is firmly in the shrug-face-emoji category.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@Jzeldes (Cardinals and Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Slim pickin's. Stashing the Niners for later still. Therefore, GO BIRD TEAMS (ravens and cards)"
Commish says: REMEMBER THIS COMMENT. Just 6 current BIG survivors have the Niners available. You, sir, are one of them.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Trentoff (Cowboys and Vikings, Survivor #3): "Dare I do it?? As a die-hard Vikings fan I've been #skoling on the boat for almost 25 years now, despite never having the privilege of visiting Minnesota or the Twin Cities. Wanting to rip the bandaid off, in OUR MAIN BFIG SURVIVOR, in Week One, I do the unheard-of and pick 'MY' Vikings. Result: Oh my Buccaneers: 17-20 Home Loss. Then in SURVIVOR #2 (from week 5), I do the unthinkable and fade the Vikes, taking San Fran on MNF as expecting a let down from a then-struggling Vikes that were coming off a lucky win in Chicago. Vikes win. Now here we are again, SURVIVOR #3 and staring down the barrel of picking these same Vikings against that same Bears team. Except this isn't the same team on either side, both looking vastly different with QB play, and considering I've already picked the Las Vegas Raiders and unable to use them against downtrending Kansas City Swifts, well, to quote the great Shawn Carter, Minnesota, Purple People Eaters & Mr Dobbs, "Bring 'em out, Bring 'em Out, Bring 'em out, Bring 'em Out. It's hard to yell with all this SKOL in my mouth." Vikes 19-13."
Commish says: Is this the greatest Inverse Hedge of Happiness in SZN history? Felled by his beloved Vikings not once but TWICE already this year... he dares to ride with a Vikings game again, PICKING his Vikings, no less. This comment and situation could likely ONLY come from a Vikings fan. Do we have someone on @Trentoff watch tomorrow? I NEED SOMEONE TO REPLY CONFIRMING WE HAVE A @TRENTOFF WATCH.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Kuhndogg (Lions and Titans, Survivor #3): "Lions at home against a division rival on Turkey Day, a game which they haven't won since 2016. What could possibly go wrong with this one?"
Commish says: BUT, BUT, BUT... WHY DID YOU...

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@gmowat43 (Weekly Pick'em): "Steelers are garbage. 'Blame Canada' is correct in so many ways. But that is certainly not the case with the Steelers. Jake Browning will look like a star on Sunday. "
Commish says: JAKE BROWNING HOT TAKE ALERT. CANADA (THE COUNTRY) SHIT TALK ALERT!!!

MORE COMMENTS

@suga1360 (Weekly Pick'em): "Today I give Thanks! As a lifelong Lions fan It's been quite some time where I didn't expect my Thanksgiving Day to start out shitty!!!"
Commish says: Oh no. Oh, no no no.

@yjcc (Herbert, QB One-and-Done): "Who are these people?!?!"
Commish says: What many of you said sitting down to dinner this Thursday.

@kwons03 (Chiefs and Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Picking 2 road teams, one in a divisional game. Time to be brave and stupid to get the cash."
Commish says: "time to be brave." THERE I FIXED IT FOR YOU.

@guitarbro2 (Titans and Vikings, BIG Survivor): "Whelp, don't love these picks one bit but gotta try and shoot the moon somehow"
Commish says: Are you even shooting the moon at this point? You're already in the outer reaches of Earth's orbit. THE MOON IS WITHIN REACH.

@dgsaites (Thanksgiving Props): "THANKSGIVING HAIKU
'Turkey tastes great man
Packers Lions and stuffing
LET'S F***ING GO PACK'
Commish says: EVERY HAIKU NOW ENDS THIS WAY. FOREVER. DON'T @ ME!!!

@rnorwood (Thanksgiving Props): "Want to see your holiday spirit fall down a flight of stairs? Spend time at Trader Joe's on Thanksgiving Eve. War at the Tasting Hut, shitty parking lot antics, empty shelve, stupid patrons. Bleh."
Commish says: Why don't you just wear a shirt (or a giant sign atop your head) that reads "I AM @RNORWOOD ON THE SZN"? Doesn't that get you VIP treatment everywhere you go in 2023?

@judigregry (Weekly Pick'em): "Squads was created to break up friendships and families. I’m certain of it! I can’t just bite my nails and wonder if my picks will be good. I have to second guess every pick made by my top squad mates!! I’m not made for this! I’ve lost all power to navigate success or failure!! I can make one prediction… I will blame someone if we lose!!"
Commish says: We created Squads in order to increase cutthroat thoughts, tension, and intensified pressure among family and friends. Your friendships will neve... SHUT UP, COMMISH!

@Schreindogg (Weekly Pick'em): "What are turkeys thankful for? By far the most depressing day of the year for their families. Out of respect I will choose all bird related teams to fly in victory formation."
Commish says: I'M NOT CRYING YOU'RE CRYING.

@ekahn93 (Weekly Pick'em): "After a Cruel Summer, the Eagles were able to Shake it Off and get a win in the Super Bowl rematch. It was a Love Story the Eagles fans knew All Too Well. They had to be the Anti-Hero in this game of Bad Blood. Needless to say, Karma was not on their side. I was Haunted by Deja Vu watching a Fearless Mahomes try to score Seven to Valdez-Scantling, it was Nothing New. But Scantling Did Something Bad, leaving Chiefs fans saying I Knew You Were Trouble. Long Story Short, the Eagles got the win because This is What You Came For. And also Taylor Swift has way more songs than I thought."
Commish says: OK but next week please rhyme "car" with "bar" at least 20 times. Thx.

@MagicDreams (Weekly Pick'em): "I have no idea why the Jaguars can’t beat the damn Texans but I just know they NEVER do. So, I’m picking Houston this week and, sure as shit, you know this will be the lone occasion when Jacksonville actually shows up for this matchup."
Commish says: We cannot alter history. We can only study it... and make NFL SZN picks in accordance.

@Schonday (Weekly Pick'em): "As requested, this Schonday school session is brought to you by Moses. (Thanks Commish) Chapter 1 of the Book of Parcells states that those who eat best are the ones who get to choose the groceries. In the spirit of Thanksgiving we are choosing Carolina. The Coach is starting to hear the grumbles of the masses and is doubling down on his offensive prowess to lead them to the promised land of their second victory. It's a tale as old as time, David vs Goliath style, or if you prefer musical stylings, Sunday the Panthers and their New Kids win with the Reich stuff."
Commish says: Oh OK, cool, so now you're out here predicting the demise of massive swaths of BIG survivors. WHY THE HEEL TURN, MOSES?

@InDaGameQB69 (Weekly Pick'em): "Turkey sucks."
Commish says: Would you say this to Vince Wilfork after he cooked your Thanksgiving turkey? WOULD YOU

@Rthecity (Bengals and Panthers, All 32 OAD): "Not having to pick these teams again is a win in & of itself."
Commish says: The beauty and pain of this format, in one sentence.

@thebigligocki (Bucs and Cardinals, All 32 OAD): "Maybe the upset happens!"
Commish says: Increasingly, this is the anthem of the All 32 One-and-Done!

@Jmoodz (Weekly Pick'em): ""I will go down with this ship, I won't put my hands up and surrender - Dido" -Jmoodz"
Commish says: .... We will have a BLL Flag above our door. SING IT, JMOODZ.

@PCH (Titans and Vikings, Survivor #3): "Fingers crossed pretty tightly, but I just looked at how many picks we have to make in upcoming weeks. Moxie don’t fail me now."
Commish says: You are letting the Moxie flow as you should, my friend. LET IT FLOW.

@Chiph99 (Thanksgiving Props): "Kerry Joseph will win three categories, there will be a defensive touchdown, he will win madden player of the game, and will push us to the 9+ turnovers; and if that doesn’t all comes true, it’ll be because Jordan Love makes a touchdown saving tackle. "
Commish says: Swap Kerry Joseph with Daron Bland and this almost came true!

@Dotacus (Weekly Pick'em): "My picks are better than pecan pie!"
Commish says: MAYBE BUT LET'S NOT BRING PUMPKIN INTO THE PICTURE

@ParlayAllDay22 (Weekly Pick'em): "GO LIONS! (i hope so)"
Commish says: HOPE IS A DANGEROUS THING.

@jeremy (Weekly Pick'em): "Got some real spicy ones this week, like the contest to see who can run backwards the most in Patriots-Giants. I love inept QB play. It's great. I'm fine. Wish this was the Thursday night game so I could be in a turkey coma for it."
Commish says: BRB making you a t-shirt "I LOVE INEPT QB PLAY"

@LAhomer88 (Weekly Pick'em): "As much as I want to see my team get a high draft pick, I don’t think they can suck as much as some of the teams this year suck. The Panthers, Giants, Patriots, Bears, Cardinals, and Commanders are woeful. That’s way too many teams that have lost their season and have fans actively rooting for losses. It’s no way to end a season. I pledge to continue cheering for Ws in direct opposition to our draft position. Go Rams!!!"
Commish says: YOU GUYS STILL HAVE DRAFT PICKS?

@Keiffapro (Thanksgiving Props): "I feel like Commish would only cry if it was tears of joy that the Packers somehow win a meaningful game this season"
Commish says: WHAT DID I DO TO YOU, MAN

@Dominate58 (Weekly Pick'em): "Teams on thanksgiving won’t play on Sunday!"
Commish says: (FIERCELY NODDING MY HEAD)

@Trees1 (Weekly Pick'em): "I don't want to pick any of these teams."
Commish says: I DON'T KNOW HOW TO HELP YOU

@Gamblers44 (Thanksgiving Props): "This is a sweet pool. Love it. Happy Thanksgiving to all you Turkeys, especially the Commish & GM. "
@AdamAnt (Thanksgiving Props): "This is a great idea!"
@doctorbong (Thanksgiving Props): "I like it!"
@Jessejames (Thanksgiving Props): "That was fun"
@Shaggy1 (Thanksgiving Props): "Now this was the most fun I have had since I was a little kid laying with my TONKA Trucks"
@theSleeper (Thanksgiving Props): "This pool is better than salt, pepper, rosemary, thyme, sage, oregano, bay leaves, cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, ginger, & spiked eggnog! Happy T-Day!🦃"
@Richievee (Thanksgiving Props): "I like this!!! Happy thanksgiving."@PCH (Thanksgiving Props): "Love this contest- rooting for lots of sacks and no FG!"
Commish says: GLAD Y'ALL LIKED IT. WE'LL DO ANOTHER TG PROPS POOL NEXT YEAR!

Yours in football,
The Commish