Friends in football,
Five days ago, Commish wrote in the NFL Update email, "Could the C.J. Stroud Texans and Jordan Love Packers be the keys to hoisting the 2023 BFIG Title Belt?!"
Y'all could have at least made me wait for it.
We're heavy on both the Packers (at Giants) and Texans (at Jets) in all our survivor pools. And for good measure, Jordan Love is the top pick in our QB One-and-Done for the first time ever.
Fringe Playoff Teams vs. Fringe New York Dumpster Fires.
If any of you need help writing the next riveting Hollywood drama, you know who to call.
FUN PICK STATS
These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.
Rewind just 15 months, to September 2022. Imagine I'd told you, "In Week 14 next year (2023), the top three QBs picked in a QB One-and-Done will be Jordan Love, Jake Browning, and Brock Purdy."
You'd have asked me who was running CFL pools and whether they needed help.
The NFL, man...
The Packers - our second-most picked team in BIG Survivor history - might challenge the Pats for that top slot soon.
This week was the 122nd week in BFIG's 15-year illustrious history that featured at least one Packers pick.
The Pats are at 131 weeks... but not being picked much of late.
Third place might surprise you a bit (Seattle, at 115), but fourth place won't (Baltimore, at 111).
At the opposite end? The Jags (68 weeks), who dug themselves a MASSIVE hole and, while they're better now, are still climbing out of it.
The battle for BFIG's all-time pick winning percentage throne remains an absolute dogfight.
The standings, currently:
- Bills: 90.6% pick win rate (16,194 - 1,685)
- Packers: 90.4% pick win rate (11,666 - 1,233)
- Ravens: 89.9% pick win rate (20,526 - 2,300)
Given the win rate and weeks picked stats, you could make strong arguments for any one of those three organizations being BFIG's all-time best bet.
Year after year, we pick them (a lot), and most crucially, they almost always win when we MOST expect/need them to win.
For you curious Pats fans, yes, the Pats are still top 5, coming in 5th at 87% (11,755 - 1,757). But Commish will NEVER forget the Week 2, 2012 loss at home to the Cards as 13.5-point favorites.
With just 21 BIG survivors heading into Week 14, Commish dusted off his "BFIG win probabilities" spreadsheet for its 2023 debut.
It's a simple exercise: Given 1/ the general probability of a survivor pick winning at this stage in the season, and 2/ the number of unique teams picked, what's the probability that all 10 (or 9, 8, 7, etc.) teams will actually win?
While of course each picked team has a different implied win probability given Vegas odds, we have 10 teams in play and this stuff generalizes pretty well around a single average of 70% win probability for each pick.
For a bit of extra spice, we have two picks playing each other (1 pick each on the Colts and Bengals). And the Steelers (4 picks) already lost Thursday night.
So, 8/10 is the best we can do.
Behold the probabilities:
- 8 teams win (so, 16/21 survive): 8.2% probability
- 7 teams win: 24.7%
- 6 teams win: 31.8%
- 5 teams win: 22.7%
- ...
- 1 team wins: 0.02%
That "5-7 of our 9 remaining picked teams win" zone is 79% likely to happen.
Of course, the question then becomes, "WHICH team or two lost", as a Packers or Texans loss is a lot more meaningful to our ultimate outcome.
It's been fun to watch our "All 32" One-and-Done overall win percentage keep dropping.
After Week 1, we were at 78%. Easy game.
After Week 6? 73.5%. And now, after 13 weeks and picking 22 of the league's 32 teams, we're at 67.5%.
That means the average player has gotten 2 of every 3 picks correct.
And, as Commish has outlined in recent emails, the pickings are SLIM for most players - and definitely for our leaders. We might end the year closer to 63 or 64%.
We all need to pick the Panthers and Giants at SOME point.
As of a few hours before kickoff, the Packers were picked by 49% of All 32 OAD players - very close to our all-time record of 50.1% (Lions, in Week 5).
In a pool where everyone has to pick every team once, a 50% pick rate is wild.
It's a confluence of many things:
- Huge confidence in that team to win
- Lack of (relative) confidence in that team to win remaining games
- Very few players having picked this team prior till now
- Lack of good-looking alternatives (that you can pick)
- Ochocinco's latest astrology reading
... just checking if y'all are still with me.
COMMENT AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!
@zachewing (Vikings and Giants, All 32 One-and-Done): "Basically need to run the table and still have the Giants. Might as well take them off of a bye when they're playing Green Bay, which is suddenly unbeatable and could NEVER lose on the road coming off of two big wins."
Commish says: I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS, ZACH.
Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)
@Autovhanchilly (Saints and Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Lamar = Good
Jameis = Great
Dan = The Goat"
Commish says: Other than understanding the Survivor God laws of the universe (Law #1: Jameis Winston is the single most destructive force in NFL Survivor history), which has no doubt helped our author be one of our final 17 BIG Survivors, @Autovhanchilly also informed me via replies to this comment that THIS BOOK is real and you can order it. Which means if you don't order it you are not paying proper homage to the Survivor Gods and thus are doomed to eternal BFIG mediocrity. Change your fortunes. Today is the day!!
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)
@ShipOfFools (Steelers and Packers, BIG Survivor): "As a Bears fan, this week is the toughest one yet. Pitt makes perfect sense, but Mitchell Trubisky is starting. And Pack against the Giants makes sense too, but it’s the PACKERS! Geez, will be holding my breath way too much this weekend."
Commish says: I both love it and hate it when someone writes their own BFIG epitaph. It's like "YOU KNEW IT. Whyyyyy." (Or in your case, "MITCHELLLLLL".)
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Wildest take
@GRAVYTRAIN89 (Eagles and Titans, Loser Survivor): "Jerry had a little Lamb
CeeDeez nuts
The Titans suck
Jerry had a little Lamb
Cowboys will be Super Bowl Champs "
Commish says: This is the best worst comment of the 2023 NFL SZN. It's also the first Loser Survivor comment in weeks, from one of our 3 finalists. THESE THINGS ARE ALL RELATED. (But, man, "Them Boys will hoist Lombardi" would have actually been in meter. NEXT TIME.)
MORE COMMENTS
@DSchill (Weekly Pick'em): "I didn't win last week, so my kids don't get Christmas presents They can make pretend castles and forts out of my emty BLL can collection. If I don't win this week, my mom will get one of those BLL can condos glued together as a tiny house solution to her lack of cash retirement situation. Commish, you gotta love what you're seeing from Jordan these days... maybe he is the future??? Gimme, Gimme, Gimme a 30-pak of BLL each week to pound, and I'll bet on the Pack to win out! "
Commish says: 2023 TIME MAGAZINE FATHER OF THE YEAR!!!
@GDishes (Weekly Pick'em): "Rooting for the ol' Cleveland Browns
Is about as bad as it sounds
Wish there was a good hack
To find a good quarterback
Better than the past 36 clowns"
Commish says: This is a good VERY GOOD limerick!
@kittywittywoo (Weekly Pick'em): "The Packers now have an ace
And now they're in the playoff race
They started with pot
But now they're hot
As Jordan makes his MVP case."
Commish says: WE ARE REACHING PEAK LIMERICK!
@AC0606 (Weekly Pick'em): "The Packers have been winning recently,
Victors in each of their last three.
Jordan Love is legit,
And you've gotta admit,
Playoff-bound the Packers will be."
Commish says: BRB SOBBING UNCONTROLLABLY
@MagicDreams (Weekly Pick'em): "Jake Browning will show alla y’all haters and disbelievers he is fer reelz. Homeboy threw 91 Touchdown passes in 1 season fer Folsom High School and set the California state record, yo!"
Commish says: I was enjoying this "FOLSOM, REPRESENT!" comment and then it occurred to me that high school teams play like 10 games. Right? You're telling me 17-year-old Jakey was bombing NINE TDs PER GAME? Was this intramural flag football?!
@ekahn93 (Weekly Pick'em): "I've talked a lot of shit about the Cowboys this season. And it's all been justified. Of course Dak has great numbers when you play the Giants and Commanders twice, and the Panthers all within a few weeks of each other. People forget that Dak single handedly lost a playoff game last year because channeled his inner Donovan McNabb and forgot how clock management works. I also realize all the things I've said about the Cowboys this season, albeit very accurate and true, is now coming to a head with the Eagles game this Sunday. I will either be vindicated and praised by the I Told You So Gods, or I will have to run away to Argentina, get a new phone number, change my identity, delete all social media, get new friends, new job, grow mutton chops, become vegan, start a craft brewery brand out of my basement, and become a cricket fan. No pressure Eagles, but please don't make me look like a fool this weekend."
Commish says: "It's all been justified." ... "I mean, we'll see if it's all been justified this weekend." ... "I mean, I MIGHT NEED TO RUN AWAY AND EAT RAW KALE FOREVER."
@Jmkahn (Falcons and Packers, All 32 One-and-Done): "Whatever witchcraft sorcery they voodoo on their quarterbacks in Greenbay... it works really well and I want some."
Commish says: YOU CAN'T HAVE IT, OTHER KAHN.
@rnorwood (Weekly Pick'em): "Every week here I'm reminded of how little I know. Jack-squat in fact. Couldn't hit water if I fell out of a boat. My oldest daughter knew this long ago. I foolishly asked what her Barbie's real name was. "Barbie is short for Barbara, dumbass." "
Commish says: Norwood. We go way back. You know I love you, man. But, it's Barbara. It's Barbara, Norwood.
@dgsaites (Colts and Broncos, All 32 One-and-Done): "HAIKU: "I am jersey bound
To watch number 10 kick ass
F***ING GO PACK"
... Suck it Giants!!!"
Commish says: One of my favorite parts about these is your reminder, every week, that this is, in fact, a haiku... even if the syllables are delightfully off by only one or two. AND THE FLOURISH AT THE END!
@judigregry (Weekly Pick'em): "First episode of Commish's WeeWoo Squad Pod... Bearded Clams take the lead while filtering Derek Carrp from the bottom of the ocean floor; Panda Warriors take to flinging poo from tree tops to ward off defenders, and it works; and meanwhile, Mom Says So takes up flip flop slinging target practice as a means to ward off poor pick repeat offenders."
Commish says: This woman gets it. SHE GETS IT!!!
@geoff1254 (Texans and Packers, BIG Survivor): "Well, right when you feel confident - that is when you will go down. The saints at home against the panthers looks like a good matchup but I think that may be deceiving… Houston on the road against the jets? One of the hottest teams against one of the coldest teams with another QB change… GB on the road at NYG. Love will certainly continue his hot streak right? Here’s to hoping the one or two of the New York teams continue their losing ways!"
Commish says: PRAYING AT THE ALTAR OF THE NEW YORK (ALMOST) DUMPSTER FIRE!
@YesThereIsAnS (Weekly Pick'em): "'No Pack No' -Tommy Devito’s goomar"
Commish says: I had to look up goomar because I was so unhappy with Tommy DeVito's goomar and now I know YOU WERE LYING. Packers by a billion.
@Clackers (Weekly Pick'em): "Still can't believe that I got talked off of Indy in week 12 BIG Survivor... Minshewmania declined and I took the Vikes and was eliminated. I would have taken the squealers week 13, so I would have been out, but a $200 payday was lost. $60 payout like kissing your sister"
Commish says: I'm counting the number of 6x ROI investments I made this year. CAME UP EMPTY. How about you, @Clackers?! You should instead tell your family about your growing BFIG legend EVERY CHANCE YOU GET this holiday season.
@kbanaian (Bengals and Packers, All 32 One-and-Done): "I have strategically waited for Carolina until this week?"
Commish says: Not only did you forget how to channel your own Moxie, YOU LEFT THE PAPER TRAIL PROVING THAT YOU COMMITTED A MORTAL MOXIE SIN.
@Shibby015 (Weekly Pick'em): "Horseshoes & Buffalos are shake'n and bake'n LFG!!!"
Commish says: Sometimes I really wish we had video comment submissions.
Yours in football,
The Commish