Friends in fast breaks,
Do you smell that? Smells like NEW POOLS have started! We've got new action now each week to pull us through the home stretch to the Playoffs. Let's hoop!
WEEK 12 PICKS
- Points One-And-Done
- Survivor #1
- "All 30" One-And-Done
- Survivor #2
- Weekly Pick'em
- Wins Battle
The GM AWARDS
Rewarding whatever random things I feel like. Feel free to suggest topics!
Worst Injury Luck - Memphis
Ja giveth, and Ja taketh away. He came back for 9 games, looked really good, and is already out for the season for shoulder surgery. Marcus Smart just had a big injury and will be out for weeks. They already lost Steven Adams for the season early on. They've still got Bane and JJJ, but this team is NOT going as far expected before the season began.
With Ja going down for the season, or pool rule of "at least two players per team (in the long run)" require us to add a replacement for Ja. The obvious choice is Jaren Jackson Jr., who will be added next week. He was already in consideration for the Week 12 additions, but didn't make the cut since we thought Morant coming back would cut into his production. Weird how that works out.
Downfall I'm Enjoying Most - Golden State
I'm one of those people that can actively appreciate greatness while hating a team/player. As a Rockets fan, the Warriors relentlessly crushed my dreams for YEARS. So seeing them in active distress right now is definitely enjoyable. But let's be real, this is the point at which I jinx it and they start playing better than ever and make a run.
Worst Trend This Season - Refs
Not many things feel better than affirmation of your beliefs. Of the dozens of games I've watched this season, I'd say 60% or more have felt like the refs ACTIVELY made the game less enjoyable. I'm not talking about not liking a call or two. I'm not talking about what look like legitimate foul calls negatively affecting whomever I'm cheering for. I mean just voluminous calls. Soft calls. Waiting for the shot to miss calls. Reviews where the replay shows BLATANT evidence and the right call not being made. This kind of stuff should happen once in a blue moon, not in what feels like the majority of games. It actively hurts fandom when it feels like the refs are the ones determining outcomes and not the players. Blegh.
PICK STATS
Points OAD
- T. Maxey and A. Davis split our most picked spot this week with 38 people picking each
- We're staying spread out this week: A. Edwards (35), L. Ball (33), T. Rozier (28), J. Brunson (28)
- Look at the Buzz Boys being so highly picked together
- Love seeing Scary Terry, one of our new additions, drawing picks in his first week
- Speaking of, looks like every eligible newly added player got picked this week!
- Interesting low volume picks: B. Miller (1 pick), C. White (1), K. Porzingis (1)
- Buzz Boy Miller also getting picked
- 1 pick is still a pick for Coby as a new addition
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- Another player cross 70% usage
- C. White our new least used player (1 pick)
- Love seeing the new guys get picked!
Survivor #1
- Status check
- 48 of you are still flawless (no wrong picks)
- 66 of you have missed once, but are still kicking
- MIN is a huge favorite, snagging 47 picks
- POR isn't putting up much of a fight
- Exhibit A: Their recent 62 point loss
- Our only other big pick is HOU with 27 picks
- DET, once again, being picked on
- But now they don't have their two best players
- So... easy pickings right?
- Shout out to the brave picker taking the Haliburton-less IND against ATL
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- Only looking at picks form alive players
- Now 6 teams above 75% usage
- DET, TOR, WAS, MEM still the least used teams now with 0, 3, 4, and 4 picks respectively
"All 30" One-And-Done
- The come up! HOU is our big pick with 50 people onboard
- Closely followed by MIN (43 picks) and SAS (35)
- Love seeing the 6-win SAS garner so many picks
- And their opponent, CHA, has 10 picks too
- 3 picks on DET? 3 picks on WAS?
- Ya'll are sickos and I love it!
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- More than 50% of HOU's picks happened this week
- Same for SAS
- TOR is our least used team at 18 picks
Survivor #2
- This follows Survivor #1 closer than I'd expect
- Considering all teams are available to everyone again
- MIN (69 picks) on top, followed by HOU (44)
- BOS is the big difference from S#1 with 34 picks
- Again, a DET picker out there, YES!
- We'll dig into the Golden Spreadsheet starting next week...
Weekly Pick'em
- We've only got two close matchups
- GSW @ CHI - 52.8% favoring GSW
- IND @ ATL - 52.5% for IND
- We've got seven lopsided matchups
- POR @ MIN - 97.7% for MIN
- HOU @ BOS - 97.7% for BOS
- GSW @ MIL - 96.3% for MIL
- NOP @ DEN - 93.3% for DEN
- ORL @ OKC - 92.0% for OKC
- HOU @ DET - 90.0% for HOU
- WAS @ ATL - 90.0% for ATL
- That leaves 9 games in the "middle"
- How absurd is it that HOU can be a 90% favorite and a 10% underdog in the same slate?
- I feel like ORL and NOP aren't getting enough respect in their matchups
- Yes OKC and DEN are stellar opponents, but I'm not sure we should be 90%+ for them
- It'll take us some time to feel out what a "good" week is
- If I had to guess, I'd say getting 3/4 of your picks right
- And what about to take the weekly prize for best record?
- I'm thinking you'll need to miss on 3 or fewer games
- Let's see how we do!
Wins Battle (Week 12)
- Remember, we're aiming at who will have the most wins at the end of the regular season
- Let's keep the lens of "close" and "lopsided", though with different bounds
- Close pairings
- OKC v PHI - 50.7% on PHI
- DAL v NOP - 54.1% on DAL
- TOR v ATL - 58.9% on ATL
- ORL v CLE - 59.9% on CLE
- Lopsided pairings
- SAS v DET - 87.0% on SAS
- BOS v MIN - 85.5% on BOS
- GSW v MEM - 83.1% on GSW
- UTA v POR - 81.6% on UTA
- That leaves 8 pairs in the middle ground
- Suprising outcomes, IMO
- BOS trouncing MIN - I thought they'd be much closer
- CHA beating WAS handily - They definitely don't PLAY like they're that much better, admittedly LaMelo has been out
- DAL and NOP being tight - We think they're close in terms of total wins, but our Weekly Pick'em had 72% taking DAL
BEST PICK COMMENTS
@kbanaian (SAS, All 30): "Before they just decide to wrap Wemby in bubblesheets and ship him to Paris."
GM says: You're not enjoying the "best prospect since Lebron" playing a whole 25 minutes a night lately?
@kbanaian (LAC, Survivor #2): "All happy times in Clipperland! "
GM says: But only a couple weeks ago the house was on fire. Still can't believe people thought that.
@GiantDukieHowserJones (SAS, All 30): "U gotta believe and u gotta pick every team…so here we go- Spurs stinging the Hornets"
GM says: YES! Pick the team with 6 wins! Our plan is working!
@kbanaian (Wins Battle): "I so badly wanted to pick against the Dubs, but you paired them with Memphis. I understand the Grizz take an air ambulance on road trips."
GM says: Original matchup based on records was GSW/UTA. But we thought "with Ja back, MEM needs to move up". And then Ja got hurt shortly after we launched the week. Really unfortunate timing.
@Logan2273 (HOU, Survivor #2): "Taking the Rockets feels bold, but not against the Pistons"
GM says: .500 team vs the injured husk of a "professional basketball team"
@kbanaian (D. Bane, B. Ingram): "Free Scary Terry!"
GM says: We did! And then... you didn't pick him???
@RedEd4 (ATL, Survivor #2): "The ATL it is...I hope...I mean should I trust them?...The Wizards stink right?...I don't know what do you think? "
GM says: I don't know, Poole's had two good games in a row 🤷
@Logan2273 (Wins Battle): "Matchups at the bottom were easy for me. I think the Wizards will be fighting the Pistons for the worst record"
GM says: That's spicy, because at their current record that means DET would have to DOUBLE their win total while WAS would have to lose out
@YikesVikes (Weekly Pick'em): "I heard the average height of NBA players is 6’6”, which is 8 inches taller than the US average for males. Since November 1, 1946, when the first game in NBA history was played, not one little person has broken into the lineup of any NBA team, although Tyrone Curtis “Muggsy” Bogues, who was 5 ft 3 in, came the closest. He played for four teams during his 14 season career in the NBA, but didn’t qualify as a little person because he was 3 inches over the limit. Throughout history, little people have been discriminated against. What lawyer is going to jump on this and sues the NBA for 'height discrimination'? 👨💼🩳's"
GM says: They also don't employ enough mid-30s guys who mostly sit at a computer all day. Where's my job NBA???
@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (L. James, K. Irving): "Former teammates and besties as my duo? Do it for the Packers upcoming playoff victory! (Wait, wrong sport)"
GM says: Aw, look at the lil pals being teamed up again
@Sportsfan90 (Weekly Pick'em): "Here goes nothing "
GM says: Don't be silly, you'll get at least one right!
@YikesVikes (T. Young, K. Irving): "Kyrie is a scoring first guard but can’t play make as well as Trae but he’s much more polished, experienced, and a way better defender. I’m not a big fan of Kyrie but he’s definitely on my team this week. Trae elevates his teammates and even though the efficiency isn't to the level of Kyrie Irving I'd argue he still has a bigger impact on the game, so together they are this week. "
GM says: Actual player analysis in our pick comments? I'm gonna go faint real quick
@RedEd4 (Weekly Pick'em): "Um...sure"
GM says: RedEd4 displaying the utmost confidence, as per usual
@Logan2273 (D. Murray, M. Turner): "This is a punt until interval 3, but they'll probably score more than my guys in the last 2 weeks"
GM says: Don't punt too hard and hurt your Overall
@RedEd4 (S. Gilgeous, J. Tatum): "They are both coming off opposite sides of blow outs, but they should both be rested and ready to roll!! "
GM says: Thursday was some of the most lopsided ball I've ever seen. Five games, and four of them had extended periods of 20+ point leads
@Salroc_ (Weekly Pick'em): "TJ McConnell game winner vs knicks was my favorite IRL sporting experience so far. "
GM says: Just went and watched the clip, that was smooth! Embiid getting in his face afterwards looks like a dad hyping up his little son.
@Logan2273 (Weekly Pick'em): "This is gonna be tough"
GM says: Making people furrow their brows - Mission accomplished!
Yours in Roundball Rock,
The GM