
Brothers and sisters of the white laces,
It's Week 9, the point when bold and brave survivors across the world know it's time to stake their survival lives on Nick Foles and Charcandrick West.
Or... I suppose Week 9 could be the point when bold and brave survivors across the world know it's time to stake their survival lives on ANTI-BORTLEMANIA!!!
Question: Since Blake Bortles is the greatest garbage time quarterback in the history of the NFL, then is Jacksonville automatically the correct survivor pick if it's Week 16 or 17 and the Jags' opponent is resting its starters?
Deep Thoughts With Commish will return at this time next week. On to the facts, awards, and comments...
See your friends' picks and comments, as well as the full spreadsheet of picks:
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WEEK 9 FAST FACTS
- Kansas City, our top pick, garnered 37 percent of title pool picks. The Cowboys (26%), Packers (14%), Seahawks (8%), and Chargers (5%) followed.
- This is typically the time of year when pick distributions get more clustered. Fewer survivors, lower appetite for risk, fewer teams remaining to pick from, etc. But our top five picks accounted for 89 percent of total title pool picks, compared to figures like 96% and 94% in Weeks 6 and 7.
- @billynickell, our consensus strongest pick line thus far, went back to his preferred strategy of picking sub-.500 teams by taking New Orleans over San Francisco today. His pick line is now SF-CAR-MIA-WAS-IND-TEN-CIN-OAK-NO.
- Given BFIG historical win probabilities, the most likely outcome of our five most-picked games is 3-2, followed closely by 4-1. We typically win ~68% of our picks, with the weekly win percentage going up slightly as the season goes on.
- Cincinnati remains the most-picked title pool team by percentage, with 82 percent having already picked the Bengals. The next-most-picked teams are the Packers (73%), Dolphins (70%), Patriots (66%), and Seahawks (64%).
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WEEK 9 AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
There are 13 games this week. One of them is Panthers (2-5) at Rams (3-4). Twelve of them are not. Are there two teams in the NFL we know less about than the Panthers and Rams? But, forget that, because MOXIE DON'T CARE. Gail Rosadini (grosadini) is riding the Rams, and Alexander Leon (This_is_lexxx) is riding the Panthers. Whoever wins, please tell us what you knew, and how you knew it. And enjoy your Moxie award.
Commish Communication Award
With his Chiefs pick, Jared Kahn (Jmkahn) unveils a fascinating trend even the survival gods would be proud of. Had he picked the Cowboys, like he was planning to while writing this Chiefs-centric comment, the gods almost certainly would have made Dallas lose:
"Kansas City has a great storyline this week. Nick Foles getting the nod to start for the coach that drafted him (for another organization) just a few years ago. Foles made his first start after Sir-Barks-Alot (Michael Vick) went down in Week 9. It was another Week 9, a year later, when Foles had a perfect QBR rating in a game. Well, this week is week 9. Oh, by the way, remember the last time Alex Smith went down only to be permanently replaced by Sir-Kneels-Alot? Well, that was a week 10, but, it was a Leap Year so I'm calling for a mulligan. All signs point to Kansas City having a big day. Especially when you consider Jacksonville just fired their OC. So, why do I have the Cowboys bubble filled in on my BFIG while I am writing this? They're a clear favorite this week. Honestly, writing this comment has made me reconsider. Okay. I just changed my pick to Kansas City."
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
People, PEOPLE... you're getting scared. Or superstitious. Or pick comment-paralyzed. Only one person attempted to explain the statistical rationale behind his pick this week. It doesn't even need to be statistical... give me historical, or biblical, or Bulilimeical (new word alert!!). Anyway, Owen Kinsky (owenkinsky) is thinking about this shit. Dude is THINKING about it. He wants the title belt. Do you want the belt? Prove it to Commish in your comments next week...
"Commish, you asked for it so you get it. More "in depth" analysis of this survivor pool. Look out Nate Silver, I'm coming for ya. 157 entries have already used Dallas, 132 have already used KC, and 288 have already used GB. 48 have picked both Dallas and KC and are forced off of both of those teams. 26 have taken all three and do not have any of the three "obvious" picks available to them this week. So how do I use this information? No idea. GB is the best "value" pick, since its obvious both based on the point spread and these numbers that most will be on Dallas/KC. Over half the pool can't take GB. But since I'd rather save GB for another week (where an even higher percentage of people will be locked out of taking them if GB wins this week), and there isn't another Dallas matchup I like. Dallas it is."
Definitely Not Concussed Award
As if we needed more easy ways to make fun of Blake Bortles. Turns out BORTLES sounds a lot like BOTTLES. We don't pen comments here at SZN, we pen masterpieces. Take it away, guys:
Sean Kolina (purecpd) - Chiefs: "About to pop Bortles of Hennessy after this win"
Dan Dreger (trigger125) - Chiefs: "Nine weeks in, you don't often look at your available options and say 'Wait! They are still available to pick?' More often, you say to yourself 'Which crappy 3-point favorite do I have to take on the road this week?' But, there they were! Like shimmering beacon on the horizon, nestled into a lush oasis, on top of the lost and island of Atlantis... The Kansas City Chiefs! I'll take a 9-point favorite, at home, getting Bortles Service in the Champagne room at Arrowhead Stadium!"
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THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'
Paige Norwood (crashfu14) - Cowboys: "Fun Sized candy bars? What's fun about a candy bar that's a third the normal size? Sure, one can stuff the entire thing into one's gaping cake-hole, but that's not exactly fun either. Worse yet, what's with families giving out RAISINS at Halloween? Raisins are little more than pathetic grapes, period. Kids should band together and squeeze all their raisins into a single massive ball which is then deposited into the offender's mailbox or tailpipe. Next year, it will be King-sized Snickers. Fight the Power! *raises fist to the sky in defiance of tyranny* Also of note, my Native American name translates loosely to "Rages Against Worthless Raisins." (RAWR!) The Cowboys are going to punch the Browns in the nuts this week. No point in playing the "oh they have to win sometime" nonsense."
Rob Norwood's title pool quest ended last week, after he picked against Jay Cutler with a comment that included "Deadpool" and "farting rainbows." Never pick against Jay Cutler: LEADER with a comment referencing Deadpool and farting rainbows.
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MORE PICK COMMENTS
David Mick (mick) - Cowboys: "You are right, I am still married. But that may be tested when I pick the Bears in week 10 (I reserve the right to not pick them). Having said that... How about those BEARS!!! I hope y'all listened and got that Super Bowl bet in!!! If you didn't, you lost out on a lot of money but it's not too late to get on the money train! Anyway this week I'm taking the Cowboys. It's my brother's favorite team. Cleveland is going to sometime this year just not against the Cowboys. I mean come on they are playing at home and can't even get the Dawg Pound sign right. Anyway my pick is great because the cowboys wont be the top pick this week. They can't be because (full discolsure I haven't read all the stats put out here) I'm sure way more than half the people still left have already picked them amd some of the people that can pick them are redskins fans so they of course cant pick. That would be like me picking the packers... That leaves the number one pick of the week being KC. KC will lose this week. They are not that good and Bortlesmania is starting to heat up and this week he does so before garbage time. the other highly picked team will be SD. They lose as well because Percy Harvin, Hampton Roads, VA native, has come out of retirement. I know he is playing for the Bills, but so what the NFL is a crazy league sometimes. Hell we've had 2 ties already. Anyway that's my reasoning for the Chargers losing."
Commish says: David, can we get a weekly "DID YOU GET ON THE MONEY TRAIN???" segment from you? Pretty sure it'd be the league's favorite thing. Podcast form, or better yet, video form, would be ideal. Do you wear a giant Bear costume every day? What does your wife think about this? I have so many questions.
Raul Vergara (Raiders2016) - Cowboys: "As a Redskins fan, cant believe I'll be rooting for the Cowgirls, but what the f***."
Commish says: It's that time of year! The INVERSE Hedge of Happiness! It's where we find out the true strength of your team allegiances. David the Bears fan said he'd never pick the Packers. Raul the Washington backer, you're riding Dallas. And how about Mike? Well, let's hear from Mike...
Mike Blair (Mikeyb60) - Packers: "Going to placate commish this week and pick his beloved packers. That's two weeks straight I've violated my own principals. Last week cheering against Vikes, this week cheering for pack!!! Greed is an evil thing."
Commish says: My god. Mike, I'm not sure what to even call this. Inverse Hedge of Happiness isn't quite right. If Denny Green became a survival god after his time on Earth, then that means the Packers are probably gonna lose today. DON'T DO IT, DENNY. DON'T DO IT!!!
Kyle King (FUDGER) - Chiefs: "Because Bob Blake Bortles, it has alliteration. His first name is Robby."
Commish says: I looked it up. This is actually his name. Can we take a small liberty and change it to BOBBY BLAKE BORTLES? Yes, yes we can.
Samantha Creasey (gym_now_wine_later) - Chiefs: "Here's my fool-proof logic for choosing KC this week: Watching the World Series had me feeling nostalgic for the Midwest. When I lived in Missouri, my two favorite cities to visit were Chicago and Kansas City. Chicago won last night. So OBVIOUSLY Kansas City will win this weekend. Makes complete sense. "
Commish says: How 'bout the Midwest, everyone?! Kansas City and Chicago in baseball, Cleveland (yes, we're claiming Ohio) in basketball, Chicago and Pittsburgh (yes, we're claiming Pennsylvania) in hockey, and Denver (yes, we're claiming Colorado) in football. MIDWEST TAKEOVER!
King Banaian (kbanaian) - Cowboys: "So wanted to take KC, but since Nick Foles Down is starting we have to return to the Brownie pledge drive -- I pledge to take the team playing the Browns against all comers unless I already took them."
Commish says: It's in writing, King. It's in writing.
Mark Simones (BigDaddy) - Cowboys: "Can't look ahead. The furthest I've ever gone in the 2nd Chance is Week 10. Booyah Rejoices -- even with picking an arch enemy like the Cowboys."
Commish says: My seven-year-old self would be super unhappy with you right now, Dad. Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin ruined years of my childhood.
Loren Gjendem (lgjendem) - Cowboys: "Commish, I'm going against my gut here and I could be wrong, but I thought that was against your best judgment. I'm not generally the guy to pick against Cleveland, and if I recall correctly I have only done it once. 1. I think the trap game is coming and 2. The last time I tried to pick the Cowboys things went terribly awry. Like Troy Mcclure, you may remember me as the guy who parodied an entire song for my Dallas pick in week 3, only to have the page 404 on me. In my haste to leave work and just get a pick, I accidentally chose the New York Giants instead. So I'm just praying that the Browns can Browns themselves once again and that the Football gods realize the Cowboys owe me one here. "
Commish says: I love the fact you're still alive in Second Chance, Loren. I remember your email to me, in horror over what had just transpired. Perhaps a Second Chance victory is in the cards!
Joshua Avilleira (avilleiraj) - Packers: "Here's to hoping I go all the way. If I win the Second Chance money, I'll be able to get the woman of my dreams the ring she really deserves."
Commish says: BFIG Love Stories: Coming to a SZN website near you. (I hope it happens, Joshua!)
Tristan Sieve (Bruce_Arians_Driving_Cap) - Packers: "*eats a piece of cheese* Tasty! *eats a piece of cheese* Delicious! *eats a piece of cheese* Superb! *eats a piece of cheese* Satisfying! *eats a piece of cheese* Yumyumyumyum! "
Commish says: We're getting close...
Cody Allen (codem0n) - Seahawks: "I hate the Seahawks, I hate them so much. When it comes to all things sports they are in my very short list of all time things I hate list. The Dodgers will always and forever be #1 but then after that there is a small list of my most hated things in sports, the 2000-2010 Lakers, Joe Buck, Joe Maddon, mid nineties Cowboys, 96-02 Yankees, LA Kings, Mat Latos, Prince Fielder, The Sedin twins, JJ Watt, Fernando Rodney, Cortland Finnegan, 2010 Phillies, 2014 Nationals, Javier Baez, The Rally Monkey, the wave, Roger Goodell, that All-Star game that ended in a tie, soft unnecessary roughness calls, the fact that no NBA players try until the playoffs, ESPN when it gets political, Skip Bayless, Steven A Smith, when pitchers get MVPs, SEC bias, early 2000s Rams, anyone who doesn't agree Joe Montana is the best QB of all time, anyone who grew up in Northern California and went to SDSU and are now Charger and Padre fans (This means you Sis), lack of clock awareness at the end of football and basketball games, Duke, bad beats, getting 5s and 8s in super bowl squares, Desean Jackson, Ian Poulter, Jed York, Trent Balke, AJ Pierzinski, Pete Rose and Barry Bonds not in the hall of fame, The Decision, front runners (different from band wagoners, actually don't mind them if something exciting is going on around you and you want to be excited about it and buy some swag that helps the franchise pay for better players in the future more power to you! Just don't be a life long Giants fan in 2014 and a life long Cubs fan now, people don't forget), people who don't pay attention at live sporting events, 99% of personalized jerseys, people who don't like court/field rushing, people who court/field rush at inappropriate times, 2002 Kings-Lakers Game 6 reffing, most mascots, people who drink wine at sporting events, come on sneak in some liquor or drink some beers, The Anaheim Ducks, The Los Angeles Clippers, the "Calvin Johnson" rule, fans who hold up signs sucking up to the network the game is airing on, sideline reporters, Bryce Harper, Dwight Howard, soccer guy who scoffs at people who aren't interested in following soccer other than every 4 years, The Canadian National Hockey team, unreviewable plays that are clearly incorrect, boring press conferences, no booze rules at college athletic events, Sergio Garcia, Kobe Bryant's face he makes when he hits a big shot and does "look at my lower jaw protrude out cause I'm tough" face, the DH, Ryan Lotchke, participation trophies, the continual softness of all 4 major sports, how in the 90's there used to be fist fights during games and it was awesome and now NFL players complain about being picked on, and the Seahawks. And if they eliminate me this week they will SKYROCKET up this list I swear! On to week 10!!"
Commish says: Annnnd that'll do it for this week!
Good luck, everyone!