Friends in fore,

What appears bleak after one round doesn't always end up bleak. But, yeah, it looks bleak out there.

Here's where our top 5 One-and-Done picks sit after one round:

• Keegan Bradley (13%): T108
• Collin Morikawa (12%): T9
• Jason Day (11%): T138
• Xander Schauffele (10%): T34
• Sungjae Im (8%): T108

In all, 50%+ of our picks in both OAD and Survivor have work to do today if they're gonna survive the cut.

The good news is many big names played the South Course at Torrey Pines yesterday, and will play the easier North Course today. The top 8 scores yesterday were all on the North Course.

Buckle up for our first real taste of Golf SZN drama this year.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

We played it VERY close to the vest this week.

In the OAD, our top 10 picks included every top 10 guy (by Field Rank) except Mr. Goldman Sachs.

Whether we're saving Cantlay for a bigger money event or we just don't like him... it's anyone's guess.

You had to go all the way to our 16th most picked golfer to find a guy outside the Field's top 20 - Luke List, 46th in the field but a past winner of this event.

Our top pick in OAD and Survivor was just #5 in the Top 10s pool.

Keegan Bradley topped our OAD, Survivor, and 100 Tier lists, but got less than half the picks of our #1 guy in the Top 10s pool (Xander).

32% of us made Xander one of our two weekly picks in Top 10s, along with 28% on Morikawa. Keegan got just 14.5%.

The critical difference here is that, in Top 10s, you can use guys as much as you want throughout the year. So, there's no consideration of "if I pick him, I can't pick him again". It's thus a truer read of our confidence.

So... we saw Keegan as the best value play (likely to do well but not sad about using him this early in the year), but are NOT ultimately that confident he'll outperform this week.

He needs a good round today (likely 3-under or better) to make the cut and start proving us wrong.

We continue to slant toward 2-point picks in the Top 10s pool.

The top 15 golfers by Field Rank are worth 2 points (if they finish in the top 10), and everyone else is worth 3 points.

Last week, we picked 6 golfers who finished top 10; three were worth 2 points and three were worth 3 points.

And yet... our top 6 picks this week are all 2-point guys (and 8 of the top 9).

Eric Cole was our most picked 3-point guy... and he promptly went out and shot 2-over (T138) yesterday.

Let's look at our weekly skin opportunities.

The $1,000 OAD skins pot is divided at the end of the year among all skin winners.

• Full skin: Being the ONLY person to pick that week's winner.
• Half skin: Being one of 2 people on the winner.

Here are our Week 2 YEYPO skin picks:

• Full skin opportunities: Adam Schenk, Alex Smalley, Beau Hossler, Brandt Snedeker, Chesson Hadley, Daniel Berger, Davis Thompson, Keith Mitchell, K.H. Lee, Lanto Griffin, Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Fox, Scott Stallings, Seamus Power, Shane Lowry, Taylor Moore, Victor Perez
• Half skin oppos: Aaron Rai, Akshay Bhatia, Billy Horschel, Justin Suh, Kevin Yu, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Ryder

We've got some candidates!

Kevin Yu is our leader at 8-under, Hisatsune is T2 after one round, and Hojgaard was the top scorer on the South Course yesterday (meaning he gets the easier North Course today).

Interestingly, Hojgaard got double the picks (4) in 100 Tier, a much smaller pool by participant count. They're on to him!

COMMENT AWARDS

The 1-iron Moxie Award

Boldest pick (with a comment). You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@JBone69 (Patrick Rodgers, Survivor #1): "People who frown upon the use of a Texas Wedge have small wieners"
Commish says: This feels like something an old dude at the bar who drinks PBR and exclusively wears flannels... but can shoot a 76 in jeans and flip flops... would say. Wait a minute, @JBone, were you born in 1969? IS IT YOU?

John Daly's Pants Award

The best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win.

@HaveYouCheckedYourButthole (Taylor Montgomery, YEYPO): "Well well, we’re back baby. After having to sit through another NFL season as a spurned ex-Chargers fan, we’re finally back to the supple greens of Golf SZN. 4 full days each week of ignoring work, kids, pet feces… the world. This week brings us to the fabled shores of the whale’s vagina, my (and @suckitspanos') glorious home. Keep an eye out on Friday at the 16th hole. I’ll be enjoying a beverage and the 70 degree weather while the rest of the U.S. freezes your asses off. I will also be scouting the field for any new entrants to the Punchable Face Rankings. That Dunlap kid has no idea how close he is toeing that line. "
Commish says: The first amateur since Phil to win a PGA Tour event and what does he get?!? CONSIDERATION FOR INCLUSION ON THE FAMOUS (INFAMOUS?) MOST PUNCHABLE FACES LIST! What a time to be alive for Nick Dunlap.

"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award

Most convincing. (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)

@Mcheavens13 (Keegan Bradley, YEYPO): "I don’t think I can pick Sungjae Im until the last week of the year. Dude plays every single week just like Happy trying to save Grandma's house. Best backup pick in The SZN and it’s not close."
Commish says: Easily one of the more "galaxy brain" strategies in SZN history. Figure out who the ultimate backup pick is, use him as the backup for 30 weeks, and if he never activates you've got him for the final Playoffs event. But also, Sungjae would never punch out Bob Barker.

Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge

Wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)

@kbanaian (Sungjae Im, YEYPO): "Always around, but not a guy I feel like I need to save for a signature event. Why is that? He's like that other blonde hugging Taylor Swift last Sunday: "Seems nice enough, gets to hang around Taylor Swift, but is not Taylor Swift and indeed I don't even know her name." If he stood next to Kevin Na, you'd recognize Na. Kevin Na, the Taylor Swift of Korean PGA players."
Commish says: Am I alone in thinking Sungjae is low-key 1/ one of the more recognizable guys on Tour, and 2/ a GREAT time at a party? 14/10 would throw back Bud Light Limes with Sungjae ANY day of the week. Also, please no one show @kbanaian's comment to Brittany Mahomes.

MORE COMMENTS

@golowrusto (Straka and Im, Golf Top 10s): "The Jug don’t lie!"
Commish says: This man's SZN profile photo is him kissing the Claret Jug. MORE OF US NEED TO BE LIKE RUSTO.

@BigFurryWookiee (Rose and Cole, Golf Top 10s): "Need 6 points to get back in this thing!"
Commish says: Wookiee. My man. It's been ONE week. And most of us posted a big fat zero in that one week. DEEP BREATHS. I thought Wookiees were supposed to be zen or something?

@jrcondon (Morikawa and Meronk, Golf Top 10s): "C'mon, boys, let's get on the board this week."
Commish says: Case in point! Condon is calm and collected over here.

@AndyCattano (Will Zalatoris, YEYPO): "Willie Wonka Zalatoris is ready to take home the chocolate bar!"
Commish says: It's funny. There have been plenty of other golfers named "Will" on Tour. But none of them come CLOSE to sitting on the "we want to call him Willy" throne. Willy Z might have retired the category.

@Ziqness (Tony Finau, YEYPO): "ok I think my strategies are changing week to week, so I'm just gonna call them BLL thought processes from now on."
Commish says: We've produced so many damn commercials for Bud Light Lime and they don't even know it yet. Also, I see you, @Ziqness - not so subtly crafting the sponsor branded segments for your upcoming podcast.

@Jmoodz (Min Woo Lee, YEYPO): "This goes out to all my babies mommas mommas, LET HIM COOK."
Commish says: Moodz is sorry Ms. Jackson, he is for Woooo. (Ty ty. Be here all week. Don't @ me.)

@Retire2028 (Sungjae Im, YEYPO): "Ok let’s go! My buddy said this is better than football. Well if I win it may be. Let’s go whatever your name is. I’m in. I may have to buy a special shirt to wear all weekend."
Commish says: If you make a special shirt for every Golf SZN pick, you are the 2024 champion and it doesn't matter how well you do in the pools.

@Jsun13 (Tony Finau, YEYPO): "Tony Time. #GreenRanger"
Commish says: Wait wait wait... is this a Power Rangers reference... for the Power Ranger named Tommy... on a pick for Tony...? It's entirely unclear who should be more offended.

@Eannarelli (Ludvig Aberg, YEYPO): "So what after last week an amateur has more PGA wins than Tommy Fleetwood. I'm not counting and neither should you. "
Commish says: Tommy Fleetwood... whose name is actually Tommy and not Tony... is out here minding his own business after yet another win NOT on the PGA Tour... and he catches this stray?! What did Tommy do to you, Eannarelli?!

@YikesVikes (Cole and Højgaard, Top 10s): "Torrey Pines is not only known for golf but also kite flying for the cliffs around the course. You'll see both high flying putting and great low scores from both Nicolai Højgaard & Eric Cole (who?). Cole missed the cut last year, and Hojgaard is making his first appearance here. They have both grown in ability so where else to make the top 10 but the Farmers."
Commish says: My man Yikes, your crystal ball has left its body. (Or maybe it's extremely centered?)

@TopCat59 (Keegan Bradley, 100 Tier): "It’s time Keegs!"
Commish says: Why do I imagine Keegan Bradley waking up, splashing water on his face, looking into the mirror and calmly but forcefully saying "It's time, Keegs". He totally would, right?

@Lambda_derg (Xander Schauffele, YEYPO): "I cant argue with the logic of the guy last week who said I'm picking Xander just to be able to stop thinking about him. "
Commish says: WHAT DID XANDER DO TO Y'ALL

Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish