Friends in football,

We'll be live scoring our Super Bowl Props pool on the website homepage feed. Join us and follow along.

Prop pick highlights:

• 46% went "2+" on CMC TDs
• 37% went "3+" on lead changes, expecting a thriller
• 76% went "over 1:26" on Reba's Anthem length
• More said "Lil Jon" would join Usher first than said "Alicia Keys" or "Ludacris"
• 43% went "Yeah!" for Usher's first song (and only 2% for "My Boo"!)

In the Playoffs Pick'em, we barely favored the Chiefs - 53% to 47% - meaning, in our six years doing this Pick'em, we've still NEVER picked a team higher than 56% in the Super Bowl.

And DRAMA: Both of our 12-0 Pick'em leaders are on the Chiefs, meaning a Niners win will come down to tiebreakers among our T3 folks who picked CMC & the Boys.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

We nearly had the same pick rates as the last Chiefs-Niners Super Bowl.
Behold:

• LVIII (2024): 53.3% Chiefs, 46.7% Niners
• LIV (2020): 54.5% Chiefs, 45.5% Niners

Last year, we went for the Eagles 56% to 44%. Perhaps that Chiefs win influenced a bunch of us this time around.

Let's examine who our leaders picked in both Pick'em pools.

Keep in mind that Commish wrote this 3 hours before pick lock. So, people could in theory have changed picks before kickoff. The website pick display is ALWAYS the source of truth.

Main Playoffs Pick'em:

• Both of our 12-0s (@dychez and @Mrully88) are on the Chiefs.
• If KC wins, it'll come down to their score predictions. @dychez said 31-21 and @Mrully88 said 28-23 (meaning one WILL be closer, no matter the final score).
• If SF wins, we have six T3 folks (as of writing) that took the Niners: @sheaujay, @ZachTuch, @Ziqness, @epchabot, @CalKiwi, and @gStone.
• And among those 6, it'd likely come down to the score prediction tiebreaker, but it's possible it'd need additional tiebreakers, moving to MVP (they're evenly split on Purdy vs. CMC) or even the final offensive yards prediction.

100 Tier Playoffs Pick'em:

• We have the OPPOSITE scenario here. All 3 leaders are on the Niners.
• @sheaujay predicted 31-24, @Ziqness 34-20, and @PaddyK27 30-27.
• Among our T4s, ALL seven are on the Chiefs.
• Wild. Commish loves this shit, and loves all of you.
• Hats off to @Ziqness (34-20 SF) and @marycubbiebear23 (33-24 KC) for being the only two to predict a 2-score gap.

And here's Commish's breakdown on what to watch for in our Props pool:

Last year, 15/20 was the winning score.

With 25 questions this year and more people playing (plus bigger prizes!), it'll likely take 19 or 20 to claim the throne. Keep in mind, we aim for the average score to be ~50% correct. (And we've gotten pretty good at doing this!) So, even getting 14 right is doing very well.

These questions were all roughly 50/50:

• Who will win? (54% "Chiefs")
• Fastest offensive TD drive? (50% "1:59 or less")
• How many turnovers? (53% "2")
• Usher's first song? (43% "Yeah!")
• Will a player other than Mahomes/Purdy attempt a pass? (50.4% "No")
• MVP? (46% "Other", 40% Mahomes)

These questions were our most lopsided:

• National Anthem length? (76% "1:26 or more")
• 4th quarter lead change? (74% "Yes")
• Shirtless Jason Kelce live appearance? (74.1% "No")
• D/ST touchdown? (71.7% "No")

We're also pretty convicted that She-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named will first appear live on the telecast between the National Anthem start and the opening kickoff (71.9%). Just 1% of us said she will not be shown.

Lastly, we think ORANGE is the Gatorade color of the moment (41.3%).

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@Shaggy1 (Props): "I just sang the Anthem too many times… who will be the Official Timer? This is the best question I’ve heard. Nevertheless I cannot stop now! Thanks fellas lol. Definitely the "over" on the National Anthem. The home of the braaaaaaaaVvvvvee… jets flyover WHOOOSHHHHHHHHHH. And I love it if That Girl's TE gets his ass handed to him! This is sofa king personal for me! Bang Bang Niner Gang. Don’t say I didn’t call it b4 the SZN either. I’m going to Disneyland!"
Commish says: It takes Moxie both to admit that you did this and to not only type "sofa king" but actually press submit on that shit, to bring us all delightfully back to middle school. You DID predict a Niners SB win before this SZN started!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Ziqness (49ers, 100 Tier): "What a fun game to cap an already wildly entertaining 2023 season. So many storylines on and off the field. Every play is going to be over-analyzed and under a microscope. Overs, Unders, Parlays, Squares and Props all while the deed goes down playing in Vegas. I tried to think of any situation picking KC (even if they win) and not feeling shitty about it, and there isn't. My first memory of football was watching the '94 Niners absolutely crush the Chargers in the Super Bowl. I bleed Crimson & Gold. I wore the #20 in HS because Garrison Hearst was my favorite RB. I live in Santa Clara. I have a signed Cody Pickett Football for BLLs' Sake! The good, the bad, and the Tomsula's I've seen it all. This is the team that's going to break the 29 year drought. Four years ago, we strolled into the Super Bowl after 2 dominant wins without needing to throw the ball (quite literally). These guys are battle tested and hungry for revenge. Chiefs injuries on defense catch up to them and 49ers run away with this one (CMC MVP 200+ yards). 34-20 Forty Niners get one for the Thumb. PS. Super Bowl is the day before my BDay and all I want is a SZN Title Belt to cherish for all eternity!"
Commish says: Given how the picks shook out, it's absolutely possible that, with a Niners win, @Ziqness could win BOTH 100 Tier and the main Playoffs Pick'em. That fact, paired with this comment, easily makes this Niners pick the single biggest Inverse Hedge of Happiness in SZN history. (Also, Ziq wins the award for "most comments while in serious contention for a SZN pool title" for not only 2023 but all of SZN history. Legendary work in multiple sports this year, man.)

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Mcheavens13 (Props): "I changed the first song pick at least 5 times. Is Ursha a start slow and ramp up guy? Maybe a come out hot, simmer in the middle, and finish with a bang? Also, not a doubt in my mind Luda will be out there first. Dude's been waiting for this moment since the filming of Fast & Furious 10 finished."
Commish says: Convincing for your Luda point. Once it was announced that Usher was doing the halftime show, how fast do you think Luda was out there letting people know he was available to make an appearance? He probably sent them charts about how well his State Farm commercial is doing.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@rnorwood (Props): "I started watching that new George Clooney movie, Bros in the Boat. Or Dudes in the Canoe. Whatever. Underdog Olympic rowing shit, that one. I have a real affinity for the downtrodden overcoming tremendous odds for the rare upset. But as a Denver Bronco fan who has witnessed all eight of their Super Bowl appearances, cheering for underdogs is a good way to get kicked squarely in the nugget pouch. People forget how bad Super Bowls used to be. Denver lost their first four, each worse than the last culminating in a wonderous 55-10 annihilation by the 49ers. For this game, what does a lifelong Bronco fan do? CMC’s dad (Ed) played for Denver and won two Super Bowls. Kyle Shanahan’s dad (Mike) coached those same Broncos teams. But they are both NINERS. 55-10! Ran up the score on us, those bastards. On the flip side, the Chiefs are the Broncos sworn enemies. Only the Raiders are more despised. Perhaps I should just watch a Denver Super Bowl rerun then go to Disneyland. By the way… the last Running Back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998."
Commish says: This comment connected George Clooney to Terrell Davis without blinking. THIS IS WHY PEOPLE READ SZN EMAILS!

MORE COMMENTS

@Football2022 (Props): "YEAH!!!!!!!!!!! OK!!!!!"
Commish says: Does anyone know Lil Jon? GET LIL JON IN THE POOL!!!

@SlapNPickle (Props): "I heard Taylor Swift’s boyfriend was going to be at this Usher concert. So glad it’s televised!"
Commish says: WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN ALL SZN, PICKLE SLAPS?

@Lambda_derg (Props): "Well my wife and I played the first 30 seconds of all the Usher songs which makes this the most researched SZN pick I've ever submitted."
Commish says: The SZN: Improving marriages since 2009.

@joepreiner (Chiefs): "Iowa is where our ancestors who were quitters ended up. Brock Purdy CHOSE the state of Iowa for college. He CHOSE to be a loser. Chiefs win because of this. It’s just science. Or math. Or both."
Commish says: What an absolute ferocious take. If you got on ESPN and said this to Stephen A. Smith, he'd honestly applaud you before launching into some inferior countertake about Iowa being great.

@jrcondon (Chiefs): "I am so far back that everyone else can pick SF, KC can win, and I'll still be in 2877+ place! A lot of others are in the same boat as me, yet you have to go 25 pages deep (out of 28 pages) until you consistently start seeing people that stopped picking after the wildcard round. We can't win, we can't even save face, yet we pick. I do believe you have something in this SZN thing here... or we're all delusional degenerates. Anyways, go Chiefs & see you all next Football SZN (or golf, MM, Baseball, soccer...)."
Commish says: It's the latter, Condon. You aren't the only one who went 25 pages deep to investigate this. You're simply the only one who eloquently converted this experience into email-worthy prose. For this, Commish loves you.

@Farmergray (Props): "Does anyone know why San Francisco is called the 49ers? Well, let me tell you because they’re going to score 49 points and send Kansas City home and the only good thing. Mr. Kelce will have is Miss Taylor to lick his wounds!! San Francisco 49, Kansas City 17"
Commish says: Really impressive job by whoever was in charge of naming the city to base it on the final score of a Super Bowl being held in 2024. Incredible work.

@mahatma19 (49ers): "Mountain Time Zone teams (Denver and that one Arizona appearance) have represented 7.8% of the Super Bowls but only represent 6.7% of the U.S. Population. Pacific Time Zone teams have been in 17.2% of the Super Bowls but only represent 16.6% of the U.S. Population. It may not be statistically relevant, but it's really cool how "West Coast" and "Best Coast" rhymes..."
Commish says: I see what you're doing here. You think this Commish, from Minnesota and a diehard Packers fan, is REALLY gonna allow you to stop short of stating the Central Time Zone facts here? Packers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Vikings, Colts. I love the West Coast, but if you're gonna come at me, COME STRAIGHT MAHATMA.

@Lootsdoolb (Chiefs): "I hate it. Not KC in particular, but all the dynasties that have made it look so easy these last 30-35 years. Meanwhile, my Vikings have given us nothing but heartbreak and are just remembered as some 0-4 Super Bowl failure precursor to the more modern 0-4 Buffalo Bills."
Commish says: BUT CONSIDER THE TIME ZONE SB APPEARANCE TITLE BELT RAMIFICATIONS!

@ekahn93 (Chiefs): "It's weird because I never really hated Tom Brady and the Patriots during their multiple Super Bowl runs. Like Brady had the handsome punchable face, a super model wife, and even beat the Eagles for a championship. I was rooting for Brady when he was on the Bucs. Maybe they were so hatable that you actually wanted to like them. Maybe its because Jake from State Farm wasn't invented until 2020 and it was too late to cast Brady for the commercials. I even found myself rooting for the Warriors in the Finals a couple years ago because they beat the spoiled franchise charges. So it's not me. It's Mahomes. It's Travis Swift. It's Draftkings making an anytime TD for McCaffrey -300 odds even though it was around even money most of the season. This game is like trying to run away from a fart on an elevator. I'm stuck and there's no escape. I'm just going to hold my breath and try not to puke."
Commish says: Ladies and Gentlemen, your next T Swift song title!

@jharlan628 (Chiefs): "Because it’s rigged for TSwift, why else would my Ravens run the ball only six f***ing times?! I call BS."
Commish says: See, I don’t even think this is Taylor Swift hate. Or a conspiracy theory. Just some elite coping/venting and indirect questioning of John Harbaugh's playoffs acumen.

@Ultragirlyini (Props): "Fun questions! Hope the game goes My Way."
Commish says: I understand that this is not an Usher pun, but rather a suggestion that Usher and Taylor Swift do a cover of Limp Bizkit's "My Way" at halftime. And it might be the greatest idea in human history.

@ZachAllen4DPOY (Chiefs): "Kelce scores twice. Kelce breaks up with Taylor after he realizes he’s the bigger star in the relationship. Taylor goes on to date Jackson Mahomes."
Commish says: BRB I NEED A MINUTE.

@manonthemoov (49ers): "Mike Shanahan won his first Super Bowl with the 49ers at 44 coaching Ed McCaffery, and now his son Kyle Shanahan is 44 and can win his first Super Bowl coaching Ed’s son Christian McCaffrey. Fate."
Commish says: BRB NEED ANOTHER MINUTE.

@Keiffapro (Props): "If Kelce wins MVP and mentions Taylor first in his speech, does she count as family or a fan?"
Commish says: WHAT ABOUT TEAMMATE THOUGH

@tmtwo (Props): "I've utilized pure logic, generative AI, and Lady Sybil from the traveling show to put together the winning prop list. You should all just skip submitting anything and bow to my superior entry."
Commish says: Where on God's green Earth is Miss Cleo in this list? WHERE IS SHE?

@Shibby015 (Chiefs, 100 Tier): "KC over SF by 3, solely because a Chief would definitely whoop some Niner ass in a celebrity death match scenario. Just imagine a claymation Mahomes vs McCaffrey, Kelce vs Kittle brawls then the BIG finale is Coach Reid vs Coach Shanahan! LFG!"
Commish says: Bring back Celebrity Death Match!!

@boknows83 (Props): "Will Rob Lowe wear an NFL logo hat? Go Sports"
Commish says: SPORTS!

@KellMcK (Props): "I don’t think I’ve ever paid $9.99 for the pleasure of making so many wild ass guesses. But something tells me 2024 is going to be *that* kind of year... Viva Las Vegas, Baby! "
Commish says: Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to introduce y'all to our 2024 Spirit Animal, KELL!

@nmckague (49ers): "Do I go with my gut or go with my heart?? As Brian Adams once famously said… listen to your heart"
Commish says: He also said, 'Everything I do, I do it for you.' Which is what Commish plays every morning as he logs into his SZN workstation. *Sniffle*

@chewypics (Props): "I don't know any Usher songs by name, so I won't know if I won that one or not. Also, thanks to SZN I found out that clear Gatorade is a thing and that Voldemort had a wife."
Commish says: I DO IT FOR YOU!! See you all next football SZN, and please join us for our VERY fun March Madness pools!

Yours in football,
The Commish