That's a photo of my dad, Mark. He decided to make his SZN username @BigDaddy because, well, I'm not really sure. But, as with most things about my dad, it just kind of fits.
When betting on football, I get pretty analytical. My dad, on the other hand, goes with his gut. Not sure if that qualifies us to be a good betting team, but it's worked out pretty well for us over the years.
My dad predicted the Bills' upset over the Patriots in Week 4. He then predicted the Bears upset over the Vikings in Week 8. He picked the 0-8 Philadelphia 76ers in NBA Survivor this week... and the Sixers won.
It's clearly time for BigDaddy and Commish to do weekly predictions. Here we go...
Home team in CAPS. Lines and all game information (e.g. injury reports) as of Friday afternoon, when we made our picks. We pick the scores independently, then reveal to each other and discuss. (TNF game picked Thurs afternoon.)
RAVENS (-8) over Browns
Commish: 27-17 Ravens
BigDaddy: 35-15 Ravens
Add'l hook on OVER (44)
There wasn't much discussion here. Commish supported the Browns early in the season, but there's not a lot to support right now, other than the Hinkie-esque process that'll almost surely net them the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft.
Chiefs (+3) over PANTHERS
Commish: 23-21 Chiefs
BigDaddy: 24-21 Panthers
BD: "Carolina is in a [playoffs] dog fight here - they have to win." Perhaps, but you could argue the Chiefs are, too, in the hyper-competitive AFC North. Our average was Panthers by 0.5, which makes this a Chiefs bet.
JAGUARS (-1.5) over Texans
Commish: 24-23 Jags
BigDaddy: 25-21 Jags
C: "There should be some analogy about what it's like to bet on an AFC South game." BD: "Or to pick an AFC South team in a survivor pool."
Rams (+2) over JETS
Commish: 20-19 Rams
BigDaddy: 32-31 Rams
C: "Dad, this is Vegas' lowest over/under total of the week - 40 points - and you predicted 63. What gives?" BD: "There's gonna be some special teams play here - 7-14 points to be had there. A shootout in New York." Pretty sure my dad knows very little about the Rams' and Jets' special teams. But would I bet against 14 special teams points in this game? No f***ing way.
Broncos (+3) over SAINTS
Commish: 27-21 Broncos
BigDaddy: 30-24 Saints
Our first significant split prediction. BD: "Drew Brees is resurgent. Defense is better. New Orleans scores a lot of points." C: "Saints will score between 20 and 30; likelier it's closer to 20. So it comes down to Siemian, right? Can he score 23+?"
Falcons (-2) over EAGLES
Commish: 34-23 Falcons
BigDaddy: 36-33 Falcons
Add'l hook on OVER (50.5)
Possible weakness: When a team beats the Packers, we probably give them too much credit in the subsequent weeks.
BUCS (+2.5) over Bears
Commish: 30-24 Bears
BigDaddy: 21-14 Bucs
C: "14 points? So you think Cutler's a one-week pony, or what?" BD: "That's been his MO."
Packers (-3) over TITANS
Commish: 31-28 Packers
BigDaddy: 36-33 Packers
C: "We both have Pack by 3; they're favored by 3. So what do we do?" BD: "There's probably some rule of thumb there." C: "I think we have to make it up." BD: "The Pack really needs a win" C: "Well, we do have them winning" BD: "Intangibles... Is it likely they'll win by less than 3? No." (And so, our scientifically sound rule of thumb: ... Um, let us get back to you next week.)
Vikings (+3) over WASHINGTON
Commish: 23-17 Dumpster Fire
BigDaddy: 25-21 Vikings
C: "What gives you faith in Minnesota right now?" BD: "Another team that really needs a win." C: "Well, so does Washington." BD: "Kurt Cousins isn't having the same kind of year, and Minnesota still has the fourth-best defense. Cousins kind of panics a bit."
CHARGERS (-4.5) over Dolphins
Commish: 38-31 Chargers
BigDaddy: 36-33 Chargers
Add'l hook on OVER (48.5)
BD: "Line seems high to me. Probably gonna be a close game. But even if the line was 6, I'd still have taken the Chargers. They're good." (Just nod your head. Moving on!)
CARDINALS (-14) over Niners
Commish: 31-10 Cards
BigDaddy: 36-21 Cards
C: "The Niners suck." BD: "Yup."
Cowboys (+1.5) over STEELERS
Commish: 27-21 Cowboys
BigDaddy: 28-27 Steelers
C: "You don't have faith in the Cowboys, or what?" BD: "Old Dak is gonna meet his match. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and they need a win, desperately." C: "You're big on the 'they need a win desperately' aren't you?" BD: "Yeah, that's a big part of professional football. Who needs to suck it up and win this week? Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Panthers."
Seahawks (+8) over PATRIOTS
Commish: 31-20 Pats
BigDaddy: 24-23 Seahawks
C: "Why on Earth do you think the Seahawks are gonna win this game?" BD: "They had a turning point game last week." C: "They still almost lost to the Bills." BD: "The Pats lost to the Bills at home; I think they're gonna lose to the Seahawks at home." C: "You do know when they lost to the Bills, Jacoby Brissett was their quarterback, right?" BD: "Yup." (And so it goes.)
Bengals (pick) over GIANTS
Commish: 24-23 Giants
BigDaddy: 28-25 Bengals
C: "I have no idea." BD: "Yup."