Friends in Madness,

MSU-MSU has tipped off and March Madness SZN 2024 is officially IN ACTION.

For the SZN rookies - welcome to your first PICKS email. Make sure you scroll to the comments - it's one thing that makes us different (and more fun) than the others.

How perfect is MSU-MSU (Michigan State vs. Mississippi State) as an opening matchup, by the way? As an 8 vs. 9 game, with Vegas basically saying it's a toss-up?

March Madness is famous more for chaos and "who knows?!" than anything else, and yet we LOVE coming back, year after year, and putting our best effort toward predicting what will happen.

Commish KNOWS that @BigDaddy will crush racks of Bud Light Limes this year. I absolutely do not know if my Bracket is trash or pure gold.

Only one way to find out...

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

UConn blew the field away in Bracket Champ picks. 37% of us picked a repeat.

Yes, they're a 1-seed. Yes, they're the defending national champs. Yes, they're a blue chip program.

But... it's March Madness, people!

Other notable Bracket Champ stats:

• The four 1-seeds were our four most popular picks.
• 2-seed Arizona (7% champ picks) nearly clipped 1-seed UNC, which also had 7%.
• 4-seed Auburn was our 6th most popular champ pick, with 113 backers.
• Fellow 4-seed Alabama got just FIVE picks to win it all.
• Fun single champ picks: 11-seed NC State, 11-seed New Mexico, 9-seed Northwestern.

That's serious value on Alabama - the 12th best team in the country, according to kenpom!

We picked 52 out of a possible 64 teams in Survivor.

Relatedly, COMMISH LOVES Y'ALL.

South Dakota State and St. Peter's both got a pick. UAB got FOUR picks, and McNeese got 10.

The top of the board looked like this:

• (3) Illinois 20.5%
• (4) Auburn 20.4%
• (3) Baylor 19.0%
• (4) Duke 18.5%
• (6) BYU 15.1%

Note that NONE of our top picks are on the 1- or 2-seed lines. Strategy.

Also, the pick percentages are % of PEOPLE who picked each team. We each made 3 picks in the Round of 64.

Shout-out to our 5 pickers who took (16) Longwood over (1) Houston in the Pick'em.

That's easily the most picks we've ever had on a 16-seed.

Other notable games/picks:

• (3) Illinois was our top Survivor pick but also our LEAST confident 3-seed pick in the Pick'em.
• They still got a 94.5% pick rate, but the other 3-seeds got at least a 96.5% pick rate.
• (11) New Mexico got 70% of our picks, and (10) Drake got 67%. Good job, Selection Committee!

In the Upset Bracket, we picked way more upsets but ultimately picked the ~same champions.

The 13 most popular Bracket champ picks were same teams across both pools.

Granted, UConn had 30% in Upset Bracket vs. 37% in BIG Bracket, but we didn't get anything TOO spicy on the champion line.

9-seed Michigan State did garner 1% of champion picks in Upset Bracket, and 11-seed Oregon got 0.5%. No team below a 5-seed got more than 0.2% in BIG Bracket.

COMMENT AWARDS

Valpo Inbounds Play Moxie Award

You can't win SZN pools without a little Moxie! (And yeah, that legendary Valpo inbounds play had MOXIE.)

@petemadness (Upset Bracket): "New Mexico to the Final Four!"
Commish says: VERMONT TO THE MOON! (Checks Pete's picks...) Oh shit you actually put New Mexico in the Final Four! Get on with your bad self!

The Wood Award

The best weekly comment (or three), because good luck ever beating John Wooden

@sdblaisdell (BIG Bracket): "Every year my husband makes his picks based on stats. Every year I make random picks based on how I like the name or mascot of the team. Guess who’s won more over the years?"
Commish says: We know this. We know it. BUT DO YOU HAVE TO REMIND US OF IT? Relatedly, shout-out to the people (we know they exist) who pick Drake to win the natty every year because they love Drake (the rapper)... if it ever hits, they'll win all their Brackets AND probably get to meet actual Drake.

Bracketology Award

Can you convince us that your pick is bulletproof?

@Benis (BIG Bracket): "I picked this bracket by putting the name of each team on a vase. I then proceeded to swing a heavy rock on a string from my nutsack like a pendulum. Whichever vase broke first was the loser. You would not believe the strain that doing this for 6 hours can put on a man. My wife left me and I'm financially unstable. I need this."
Commish says: Was your username a long play leading up to this comment? Has your life just been a long play leading up to this comment? I can't wait for the GoFundMe link in your next comment.

Sister Jean Swag Award

Spiciest/wildest take, because no one has as much swag as 103-year-old Sister Jean (March Madness' unofficial hypewoman).

@deanswinter (BIG Bracket): "Haven’t felt this nervous since my airball in my first game at Chico State in 1971."
Commish says: DIDN'T HAVE "SUBTLE CHICO STATE FLEX" ON MY BINGO BOARD TODAY.

MORE COMMENTS

@chrisc74 (BIG Bracket): "I vow to have an above average finish!"
Commish says: My JV basketball coach always stressed the importance of setting realistic goals.

@DreMadness (BIG Bracket): "If my cat beats me again this year, I'm putting all my money on his stock picks."
Commish says: STONKSCAT, coming to a Netflix recommendation screen near you!

@EWD (BIG Bracket): "I made the emotional hedge of having Bucky lose in the Sweet 16. I’m not proud of it. I’m not sure what it says about me. Typing this right now I hate myself for doing it but here we are. F*** it, I’m going back. It’s getting updated ... I went back. Badgers meet Marquette in the Elite 8 and advance to the Final Four. This is the world I want to live in. Tonight I hope I dream of Mark Vershaw. If that doesn’t mean anything to you, that’s fine. If it does mean something to you. We’re friends… On Wisconsin "
Commish says: "I Dream of Mark Vershaw", coming to a Lifetime Original Movie near you!

@sabal23 (Survivor - Creighton, Alabama, Illinois): "There is NO CHANCE I'm eliminated in the first round!!"
Commish says: I mean... ugh... (how do I explain this to them?)

@RedEd4 (Survivor - Marquette, Illinois, Saint Mary's): "A #2, #3 and #5... when do you use the big guns? Segment 1... segment 2... 3? (Crunch) The world may never know."
Commish says: But who are the big guns, really? What if you just used 'em all? I'M HERE ALL WEEK, ED.

@GatorSarge (Upset Bracket): "Jaguars will win the Super Bowl this year. "
Commish says: Making a Moxie prediction... for the wrong sport... 11 months before the Super Bowl. Is this even Moxie or is it something else? (Checks notes.) MOXIE, BABY!

@SpecialK21 (BIG Bracket): "Every 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed wins the natty the next year… Purdue is gonna keep that storied streak alive."
Commish says: I cannot argue with history (Virginia made this stat 1-for-1) but... but... I'D LIKE TO ARGUE WITH HISTORY.

@wagnerj900 (BIG Bracket): "Marquette beat Illinois 71-64 back on November 14 in Champaign. Both teams are healthy(ish). Both teams are better. Both teams are ready. They'll get a chance to run it back, this time in Phoenix. Kolek will probably have a dozen assists. Shannon could drop 40 on the way to setting a new NCAAT scoring record. Everything will be different in the desert. Everything EXCEPT the end result. It's time for the Golden Eagles' One Shining Moment."
Commish says: YOU'RE A SHINING MOMENT, WAGNER.

@estanske (BIG Bracket): "A wise man asked me to take a photograph of him one time. I asked "Why?" He said, "So I can put it on Instagram for my fans." I thought it was weird but now I understand the importance of filling out amazing brackets - you gain fans. Go TOPES."
Commish says: OK ok ok but how many fans have you gained since posting your bracket on the 'Gram? Do SZN email comment features help you DO NUMBERS? Should Commish be charging for this shit?!

@NYGFan56 (BIG Bracket): "I tried to see if my dad would be up for filling out a bracket this year but he bemoaned the state of college hoops and talked about Patrick Ewing at Georgetown for 20+ minutes (he is not an alum). Maybe next year."
Commish says: Why is it always the Georgetown Ewing years? For a surprisingly large range of old(er) man ages, Ewing at Georgetown doesn't just define "glory years" (or something like that), it defines the game of basketball itself.

@dashvictor (Survivor - Auburn, Duke, Marquette): "Yale should have lost to a 13-17 team - pick 'em out! These are Shaka Smart picks."
Commish says: GET SHAKA SMART IN THE POOL!!!

@SDB (Bracket #2): "Can you take me high enough? Filtering my inner picks through Creed"
Commish says: I thought the Creed comeback had peaked and I THOUGHT WRONG.

@Fieldking (BIG Bracket): "Brackets can be a sweet dream or beautiful nightmare!"
Commish says: You left this comment for every one of your pools and now I'm wondering how many times you've said this out loud during the past week. HONEST ANSWERS ONLY, FIELDKING.

@davecip (BIG Bracket): "Khalid El-Amin revenge game"
Commish says: Wait, were we friends in elementary school?! Khalid El-Amin (UConn star in the 90s) is 100% the guy every mid-30s, Minnesota-raised sports fan thinks about when they think about their earliest March Madness memories. Guy had such swagger!

@MONSTERXXX (BIG Bracket): "MONSTERXXX is back boys ! I know im excited WOOOOOOOOOOOOH !"
Commish says: THE KING HAS RETURNED! WOOOOOOOOHH!!

@ClayBaby8 (Survivor - Auburn, Dayton, Texas): "Jordan Love will be better than both Rodgers and Favre"
Commish says: YES. But then the real question is what terrible thing will Love do in his late 30s or 40s off the field? This is part of the Packers HoF QB legacy, too!

@ts067 (BIG Bracket): "I like North Carolina accents and I have an ex-boyfriend who went to UF... he was really cute, and nice! :)"
Commish says: @STATCZAR IS ALSO CUTE AND NICE FYI

@LinKayay (BIG Bracket): "You're going down like a sweet muffin!"
Commish says: I'M NOT SURE WE'VE EVER HAD SUCH A PLEASANT BATCH OF COMMENTS.

@SDB (Pick'em): "Having a spicy margarita on a cruise ship making picks is the ONLY way to make picks"
Commish says: DO THEY SELL SPICY BUD LIGHT LIMES?

@xolp (BIG Bracket): "Uconn't go wrong, right?"
Commish says: It's clearly time to end the email. Good luck, everyone!

 

Yours in hoops utopia,
The Commish