Friends in Madness,

BRB Commish needs to rename this whole thing JACK GOHLKE SZN.

That's right. The former Hillsdale College (Division II) benchwarmer, turned Horizon League Sixth Man of the Year.

Dude drained TEN 3-POINTERS to help (14) Oakland take down (3) Kentucky in the biggest upset so far.

Despite that upset, we did pretty damn well in our Bracket pools. Commish goes deeper below.

But in Survivor? Wooooof. It was a VERY tough opening round. Scroll on for the carnage report, plus R32 picks...

ROUND OF 64 RESULTS

What happened, in one paragraph

For the first time since 2019, all 1- and 2-seeds advanced. The carnage happened in the 3- thru 6-seed ranks, as Kentucky (3), Auburn (4), Wisconsin (5), BYU (6), Texas Tech (6), and South Carolina (6) all went down. The Pac-12, largely ignored in its last-ever season, is 5-0 so far, continuing a long-standing tradition of outperforming its seeding.

BIG BRACKET

• Avg points: 21 (of 32 possible). 98% of us picked up 8 points on all 1- and 2-seeds winning. That means we averaged just 13/24 correct on all the other games - barely over 50%.
• Best round performance: 28 (@ehartong and @kmresch). @ehartong's entire bracket is Moxie City, including (11) NC State winning it all. @kmresch combined a chalky finish with an upset-happy first round, but is down a Final Four team in Kentucky.
• Most damaging loss: Auburn (to Yale). We made the 4-seed Tigers our 6th most popular champion pick, ahead of every 2-seed except Arizona. While Kentucky was the highest seed to lose, they had 3x fewer champion picks as Auburn did.
• Overall leaders: @ehartong and @kmresch. Remember, our average was 21, just 7 points behind the lead. Overall standings >>
• Best Squad: The Busted Brackets (77 points). Their top 3 are AVERAGING 26 points each. Incredible. "AC Alumni March Madness" is in 2nd, at 75 points. 

SURVIVOR

• Round W/L record: 4,354 - 1,703 (71.9%). We picked a lot of winners, but several huge upsets meant it was VERY hard to get all 3 picks correct. Weekly standings >>
• Damage done: 1,293 down (63%). Auburn (20.5% pick rate), BYU (15.1%), and Kentucky (12.3%) let us down big time.
• Survivors: 746 are on to the Round of 32.
• Best Squad: 11 Squads left with at least 3 survivors.

PICK'EM

• Round performance: 65.6% win rate. Unsurprisingly, our 21-win average maps EXACTLY to the BIG Bracket. We'd expect them to be the same in Round 1. It will diverge (a lot) from here! 
• Best round score: 27 (@Smitty12 and @Dsaranow). Why this wasn't also 28 is anyone's guess, but the standard was set one win lower here than in BIG Bracket.
• Overall leader: @Smitty12 and @Dsaranow. In this pool, it's straight "1 point per win" all the way through. Relatedly, our AVERAGE performance is just 6 wins off the lead. 
• Best Squad: The Busted Brackets (75). Let it be stated that TEAM SZN IS IN 2ND PLACE. (We cannot win money, of course, but we can WIN CEREMONIALLY AND THAT IS WHAT WE PLAN TO DO!)

BRACKET #2

• Avg points: 20.9 (of 32 possible). Ever so slightly behind our BIG Bracket average of 21.
• Best round performance: 28 (@Buterbaugh8). Their bracket reveals an entire Elite 8 still intact.
• Overall leaders: @Buterbaugh8. A robust 40 people scored at least 25 points in R64. 
• Best Squad: Marching to Madness with Nigel (70 points). FOUR Squads are right behind at 68 points.

UPSET BRACKET

• Avg points: 43.4 (of 87 possible). That's A LOT of points possible. Because there were A LOT of upsets. Isn't this format fun?!
• Best round performance: 80 (@Bishopsycamore). In one of the best Round/Week 1 performances in any pool in SZN history, JUST LOOK AT IT. What's even more impressive is while, yes, they clearly picked a lot of upsets, they also picked their spots! They picked two 5-seeds to advance (and they both did). They picked exactly one 6-seed to advance (and that's exactly what happened). Their Final Four? Three 1-seeds plus KU. What a start.
• Overall leaders: @Bishopsycamore. 13 of us scored at least 70 points in the opening round. MANY more points to be scored! Overall standings >>
• Best Squad: Buzzer Beaters (201 points). Their top 3 went 72, 68, 63 in the opening round. Impressive. 

100 TIER BRACKET

• Avg points: 20.6 (of 32 possible). Still pretty damn similar, but the lowest of any of our Bracket pools so far. EVERY ENTRANT scored between 18 and 25 points.
• Best round performance: 25 (@davidjroy and @Staceysedge). David has Yale in the Elite 8 and Dayton in the Final Four. Stacey has felled Auburn in the title game. Gonna get interesting in 100 Tier land!
• Overall leaders: @davidjroy and @Staceysedge. Commish loves pointing out that our 100 Tier champs have lower scores than our main pools. While not guaranteed, basic statistics suggests a pool with way fewer people will require a lesser score to win. In the NFL Playoffs Pick'em, our 100 Tier champ had 2 losses while our main pool champ was perfect. After one round, MM Bracket is shaping up similarly. Still anyone's game. 

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

(3) Illinois is our biggest Survivor pick AGAIN, after also taking that slot in R64.

That should, in theory, be very difficult to do, because Illinois was likely the most common selection among those who survived Round 1... meaning they weren't even available to pick in Round 2.

So we very much like Illinois' chances to win today (vs. (11) Duquesne), and we very much liked Illnois' chances to win Thursday... but we doubt Illinois' ability to go far in the tourney.

Maybe this is a sign Illinois is sneaky good? Can we build a "SZN hivemind" rating that starts to rival kenpom? COMMISH IS HERE FOR YOUR SUGGESTIONS.

We are mixed on whether Oakland can be a lasting Cinderella.

Our second biggest Survivor pick is (11) NC State, who plays (14) Oakland today.

But in Pick'em, 30.6% of us did pick the Golden Grizzlies to advance to the Sweet 16 - more picks than Oregon, Michigan State, 4-seed Kansas, and 6-seed Clemson.

Commish broke down the major picking differences between BIG Bracket and Upset Bracket.

I looked at the overall pick rate for each seed line, and compared that between the two bracket pools.

Our biggest differences in Round 1:

• 12-seeds (+22.4%): 51.5% pick rate in Upset Bracket vs. 29.1% pick rate in BIG Bracket.
• 10-seeds (+15.4%): 65.3% pick rate in Upset Bracket vs. 50.0% pick rate in BIG Bracket.
• 11-seeds (+15.2%): 64.8% pick rate in Upset Bracket vs. 49.5% pick rate in BIG Bracket.

Clearly we still pick A LOT of upsets in our standard Bracket format. But yes, as expected, we load up even heavier in Upset Bracket land.

COMMENT AWARDS

Valpo Inbounds Play Moxie Award

You can't win SZN pools without a little Moxie! (And yeah, that legendary Valpo inbounds play had MOXIE.)

They didn't leave a comment, but @rculver13 (a SZN vet since 2016) picked (14) Oakland, (13) Yale, and (12) Grand Canyon in Survivor. Someone woke up this morning WANTING TO BE A LEGEND.

The Wood Award

The best weekly comment (or three), because good luck ever beating John Wooden

@rileytagtmeyer (Survivor - SDSU, NC State, Creighton): "I wish I could have ritually slaughtered that Buffalo Wild Wings fake CGI buffalo with wings to gain favor with the March Madness Gods before filling out any of my brackets. I blame that abomination for BWW corporate not having Bud Light Lime specials on tap as beer of the month and my other bracket Ls. Confident in my survivor picks though, because like that fake buffalo I will be here for the entire tournament. "
Commish says: Freshly smoked CGI buffalo washed down with an ice cold Bud Light Lime... describe nirvana without saying nirvana.

Bracketology Award

Can you convince us that your pick is bulletproof?

@Sharpdogg (Survivor - Illnois, Iowa St, Duke): "Well, here goes nothing. I'm never confident with Big Ten teams, and I hate rooting for the Dukies. But if it helps me make money I'll sell my soul to the Blue Devils. "
Commish says: SZN T-shirt alert! "SOLD MY SOUL FOR SURVIVOR GLORY" with a giant faded blue devil on the back.

Sister Jean Swag Award

Spiciest/wildest take, because no one has as much swag as 103-year-old Sister Jean (March Madness' unofficial hypewoman).

@ParlayAllDay22 (Pick'em): "Oakland is going to be sharper than Gohlke’s widow’s peak!"
Commish says: OK the widow’s peak, but how about the jawline. That thing gives off all kinds of, “I was meant to play a cop in 90s action stuff" vibes. GET THIS MAN ON A FAKE POLICE FORCE ASAP.

MORE COMMENTS

@Jmkahn (Pick'em): "Time to watch another entire day of basketball. It's the right thing to do."
Commish says: We at The SZN are all about doing what is just and moral. We stand with Kahn.

@ParksideGems (Survivor - Iowa St, Duke, Gonzaga): "ASU sweet sixteen 2025 :p"
Commish says: Hear that Albany State? ParksideGems thinks - no, knows - you're going to the Sweet Sixteen next year. Get pumped!

@Clackers (Pick'em): "F*** The Mountain West… lol, and f*** the pundits that reeled me in"
Commish says: But, but, but... this happens every single year. The Pac-12 overperforms (5-0 so far), and basically every other conference is "meh" or an abject failure. At least the Mountain West has two teams that won!

@Shaggy1 (Survivor - SDSU, Marquette, Tennessee): "Literally just survive! It’s a thing."
Commish says: If you survive this round, can you please have someone film you walking up to as many strangers as possible, wearing a SZN t-shirt, and saying your comment aloud? (What's that?) No, we won't pay you for this. BUT IMAGINE THE FUN.

@Fieldking (Pick'em): "Bracket SZN can be a sweet dream or a beautiful nightmare!!!"
Commish says: You still haven't answered my question from the R64 PICKS email, Field. HOW MANY TIMES?!

@Kibb7154 (Pick'em): "I continue to pick Duquesne as my outlier. Also I have no tolerance for Mich State tunnel attack and think they should have a 5 yr ban from NCAA!"
Commish says: Somehow, a 5-year ban for this wouldn't even be as bad as some past NCAA penalties (cough Reggie Bush cough). ALAS, Ladies and gentlemen, OUR NEW NCAA PRESIDENT!

@YikesVikes (Pick'em): "Am I digging a hole for myself or is my moxie working? The net result will tell!"
Commish says: No matter the result, no matter the size of the trophy room, Moxie never fails, Yikes. It NEVER fails.

@sabal23 (Survivor - SDSU, Duke, NC State): "I'd pick against the SEC, but no one is left!"
Commish says: STICK TO FOOTB...

@BigRed7272 (Survivor - SDSU, Illnois, Arizona): "Hey, the team I picked as my Champion isn't on this list... oh wait."
Commish says: BUT YOUR SURVIVOR CHAMPION DREAMS LIVE ON.

@danny8ao (Survivor - Illnois, UNC, Purdue): "Im Purdue to win a survivor pool in 2024"
Commish says: And it is clearly time to end this email.

 

Yours in hoops utopia,
The Commish