@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have been betting NFL games for years. Commish tends to overanalyze. His dad tends to... underanalyze. Together, it always seems to work out.
After decades of training, years of anticipation, months of film study, and hours of beer drinking, my dad and I published our first-ever weekly NFL picks last week.
We promptly produced something wonderfully average - a 7-7 slate.
Commish ("C"): "How do you feel about our first week performance, Dad?"
BigDaddy ("BD"): "I was disappointed we didn't finish better. We were, what, .500?"
C: "Yeah, but that's normal. Results like ours are why Vegas makes money. Do you know how you did with your individual predictions?" (Note: We independently predict the scores, then take the average to produce our pick.)
BD: "Nope. How'd I do?"
C: "You went 4-9-1."
BD: "That's not very good."
Home team in CAPS. Lines and all game information (e.g. injury reports) as of Friday afternoon. (TNF game picked Thurs afternoon.)
Saints (+3.5) over PANTHERS
Commish: 27-24 Saints
BigDaddy: 30-28 Saints
(We reflected on the game - 23-20 Carolina - on Friday afternoon...)
C: "I guess that's why they say 'Take the points.' Super tough gambling loss for anyone who took Carolina."
BD: "Carolina's secondary isn't good. Got to have a good secondary to be competitive. You look at these teams rising to the top of the league, and they all have good secondaries. The Packers are horseshit."
GIANTS (-7.5) over Bears
Commish: 23-17 Giants
BigDaddy: 28-17 Giants
C: "You were right about Cutler last week."
BD: "What'd I say?"
C: "You said he was a one-game pony."
BD: "(Laughter) Yup."
COWBOYS (-7.5) over Ravens
Commish: 30-20 Cowboys
BigDaddy: 31-21 Cowboys
Add'l hook on OVER (45)
C: "We hooked three games last week, and lost in each of the three possible ways you can lose a hook - wn team/lose total; lose team/win total; lose both."
BD: "I don't think it's wise to be betting on the Chargers anymore (Note: One of our hooks last week). They just can't seem to win games they should win."
C: "That's a kind way to put it."
STEELERS (-9) over Browns
Commish: 30-17 Steelers
BigDaddy: 24-10 Steelers
C: "I was in the Browns' camp earlier this season, but they've been terrible the past five weeks."
BD: "There's no continuity anywhere on that team. The best player on their team is Pryor. Put him at quarterback. What do you have to lose?"
C: "Well, one issue there is he's their best receiver."
BD: "I suppose you can't throw it yourself, can you..."
C: "They've had one close game in their last seven - against the Jets. The "close" game against Tennessee was only because they had a few garbage time touchdowns."
BD: "The play would have been to say at the start of the season, 'I'm betting against the Browns every game,' then you parlay your winnings into the next game."
C: "Another early retirement plan gone awry."
Titans (+3) over COLTS
Commish: 33-31 Titans
BigDaddy: 33-28 Titans
Add'l hook on OVER (53)
BD:"Titans showed me something last week [in pasting the Packers]. They've got some power. Mariota's coming into his own. They have some good receivers. DeMarco Murray also threw a touchdown - when's the last time you saw a halfback option go for a touchdown? Usually it's bungled."
C: "Is our 'over' prediction influenced by the fact we just saw both these teams crush the Packers?"
BD: "Maybe a little."
Cardinals (+1.5) over VIKINGS
Commish: 23-14 Cardinals
BigDaddy: 24-23 Vikings
C:"Why do you still have faith in the Vikings?" (Note: @BigDaddy and @LibbySims live all of a block from US Bank Stadium.)
BD: "Well, they got a new kicker this week."
C: "..."
BD: "If they JUST go back to what they're good at - throw deep balls to the sidelines and let talented receivers make plays, and their defense - they'll win again. Started getting a little too fancy - things like too much short passing. Put themselves in 3rd-and-longs, became predictable. I think you throw to the sideline on 1st down, every time. That Thielen kid has great hands, Stefon Diggs had a monster game - what, like 14 catches? - last week. It's a situation where you throw it anywhere near them and they're gonna make a good effort at it. That's what you're gonna see this week - going back to what they're good at. Long passes. Sam Bradford can sling it. Him and Rodgers aren't good when they're back on a 6-count. Go back, throw it to a spot, and count on their receivers to catch it."
C: "I'm sure Minnesota talk radio is just insufferable right now."
BD: "You know, they were really down on their kicker."
C: "..."
Jaguars (+7) over LIONS
Commish: 27-24 Lions
BigDaddy: 31-25 Lions
Add'l hook on OVER (47.5)
C: "Our rule says we hook it." (Note: The rule is that if we're both comfortably on the same side of both the spread and total, we place an additional hook bet.)
BD: "I don't think we hook it."
C: "That's the rule."
BD: "I think we hook it."
C: "Yet another game where we both think one team is gonna win, but won't cover. Did you know Detroit has trailed in the fourth quarter of every game this season?"
BD: "They're well-coached. Caldwell is a good coach. Even-tempered. Doesn't get too excited. Like Marvin Lewis in that regard, but Caldwell is a better coach."
C: "If Detroit doesn't win the NFC North this year, I don't think they're ever gonna win it."
Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Commish: 27-26 Bengals
BigDaddy: 27-24 Bengals
C: "Apparently all Bengals games are like this. Last week, I said 24-23 Giants and you said 28-25 Bengals. It was 21-20 Giants."
BD: "Yup."
Bucs (+7.5) over CHIEFS
Commish: 24-23 Chiefs
BigDaddy: 34-31 Chiefs
C: "I have the Chiefs' D in fantasy. Here's the number of points allowed in their past five games: 10, 21, 14, 14, 17.
BD: "They've won a lot. They've been winning. They win, and you hear nothing. Who's their quarterback? (Alex Smith.) Yeah, nothing. You hear nothing."
C: "Our theme so far is we agree a team is gonna win but the spread is too much."
(Note: We just picked five road underdogs in a row.)
Dolphins (-2) at RAMS
Commish: 27-17 Dolphins
BigDaddy: 21-19 Dolphins
BD: "Goff is gonna start."
C: "Shit. That's right. We don't know anything about him. What if he's just terrible?"
BD: "Then they're gonna have to bring in Traveler.
C: "Traveler... as in USC's mascot [the white horse]?"
BD: "Bring in Traveler and haul him off. Bring in Traveler. Goff's gotta go."
C: "..."
BD: "BRING IN TRAVELER!"
NINERS (+13) over Patriots
Commish: 30-17 Patriots
BigDaddy: 34-24 Patriots
C: "I'm Patriots by 13; you're Patriots by 10. That means we're on the Niners."
BD: "Ooof, that's a tough one."
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Eagles
Commish: 27-17 Seahawks
BigDaddy: 21-17 Seahawks
C: "First one that puts us right on the nose. Seven points."
BD: "I like Seattle to cover."
C: "Well then."
Packers (+3) over WASHINGTON
Commish: 34-33 Packers
BigDaddy: 33-31 Dumpster Fire
BD: "I'll let you pick this one."
C: "Well, I mean we both picked the Packers versus the spread ... The only way Green Bay wins this game is if they score a shit ton of points ... Are we gonna miss the playoffs?"
BD: "Well, they're a game under .500. If you're to listen to people like Ryan (Simones), they're going 4-12. Jumping off the bandwagon ... I just want them to be competitive here as we go into that game on Dec. 11. I'd take 2-1." (Note: We'll be attending Seahawks at Packers on Dec. 11.)
C: "Well, they need to go 2-1 if they're to have any playoff chance."
BD: "The NFC North winner could be 8-8."
Texans (+6.5) over RAIDERS
Commish: 27-24 Raiders
BigDaddy: 27-25 Raiders
C: "That makes five games where we agree on the winner but think the spread is too much. Apparently we think the Vegas guys were drunk this week when they made these lines."
BD: "There's a number of lines 7 points or higher... and wow, that's unheard of. Seven lines at 7 points or more plus one at 6.5."
C: "Yeah, that's more than half the games."
BD: "There's gonna be bloodshed this week. A lot of money lost. Those lines are there for a reason. You can count on a lot of money being bet on the Pats-Niners game because the Niners are shitty and the Pats are coming off a loss. If you were to add three more relatively sophisticated football guys to what we're doing here, you could probably make money doing this [averaging our five picks]."
C: "Why don't we just take 100 sophisticated football people from The SZN and average our predictions?"
BD: "That'd be good."