Wondrous Wheel Route Wardens,

First, a huge happy birthday and happy wedding to the most honorable member of The Second Family of Survival, Joshua Pasch, and the newest member of The Second Family, Shannon (Dwyer) Pasch. And to all the Pasches, who are responsible for some 400 people in BFIG, Commish loves you all.

Now, if BFIG Week 1 is like watching a giant game of Plinko where 529 discs are dropped at once - total chaos - then BFIG Week 11 is like watching 20 simultaneous chess matches in Central Park.

Even though it's still challenging to parse out strategy and impact, celebratory yells mean something. Next picks become reasonably predictable. Individual decisions can be scrutinized.

And boy can we scrutinize Week 11 picks. The fact only 5 percent of title poolers picked Dallas - a fantastic pick per the Book of Survival Truisms (better record, at home, non-divisional game with no coaching history) - is totally nuts.

Thus, Commish presents to you, "Why you should be terrified, in three words or less":

• Giants (32%, vs. Bears): ELI FACE.
• Lions (23%, vs. Jags): THEY'RE THE LIONS.
• Steelers (17%, at Browns): DIVISIONAL ROAD GAME.
• Chiefs (9%, vs. Bucs): HOT JAMEIS.
• Patriots (7%, at 49ers): ROAD, NO GRONK.

It really gets fun now. Let's do this.

See your friends' picks and comments, as well as the full spreadsheet of picks:

• Title pool
• Second Chance pool

WEEK 11 FAST FACTS

• Just nine picks in the title pool - by far our lowest total of the year.
• Yet it's also among our most evenly distributed weeks. The Giants, at 32%, are our third-smallest top pick so far.
• 130 title poolers had 7-2 Kansas City available. 33 picked them (25% pick rate).
• 130 had 7-2 New England available, and 27 picked them (21% pick rate).
• Meanwhile 33% of the 360 people with the Giants available (basically everyone) picked them. For Detroit it was 24%.
• You'd think at this stage that those pick rates would vary more dramatically. I haven't done that analysis before, but I'll do it again in the coming weeks and see how it changs week to week.
• If you've been paying attention, actual results have pretty closely mirrored historical probabilities in recent weeks. Basically, at this point in the season, roughly 70 percent of our unique picks (e.g. Detroit is just one pick - not 87 picks) win each week. That's been remarkably consistent throughout the eight years we've done this.
• We have eight games in play after Carolina already won on Thursday. The most likely outcome of those eight games is 6-2 (30%), followed by 5-3 (25%). That doesn't mean we don't get crazy results sometimes (2-6 has a 1% probability), but there's a 94% chance at least one pick loses, and a 75% chance at least two lose.

Commish Communication Award

@AndrewGeeTN (Giants & Lions, SC Pool) doesn't win this award for accuracy, but he absolutely wins this award for changing the course of Commish's football existence. Until today, I did not know that ELI of, well, ELI fame, wasn't actually named Eli. No, no, friends. Eli Manning's name is Elisha Nelson Manning. Elisha. Elisha.

"A lot of people are going to New England this week. I, however, will hold onto my Ace of Spades, which is Thomas Brady, and will put my faith in Matthew Stafford and Elijah Manning."

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Until someone steps up their analysis game... until someone demonstrates they also have the gusto to put their logic out there for all their BFIG brethren to digest and scrutinize... until someone FAVRES UP, Owen may win this award every week. The floor is yours, @owenkinsky (Chiefs):

"Only 130 people have KC available to them. I expect Detroit will be the big pick of the week, as only two have picked Detroit to this point. A lot of people have picked Detroit this season, and there is a reason they are no longer making picks. We are at Week 11, and there are two things I'm still not certain of...I'm not sure that the Jags are bad, and I'm certainly not sure the Lions are good. Jacksonville could easily have four more wins on their schedule, losing nail biters to GB, Baltimore, KC, and Houston. To contrast that, the Lions 5 wins have come by an average of 3.4 points (some of that additional scoring is fluky too). It took borderline miracles for them to win against Washington, Minnesota, Indy; their two wins against Philly and LA took 4th Q comebacks. They have been losing in the final two minutes of every game except one this season; in the other they were losing with 6 minutes to go and tied with a minute and a half to play. In short, I don't trust Detroit to beat Jacksonville, making KC an easier pick for me to stomach. It also has the added benefit that most can't take KC at this point."

Definitely Not Concussed Award

A few weeks ago, we learned about ordering Bortles service, then popping Bortles during garbage time touchdown fests. This week, thanks to @dinosarducci (Raiders), we learn that the Texans' abomination of a quarterback actually has just one name. BROCKWEILER:

"Brockweiler is terrible. He is actually the most terrible quarterback to ever get a $60 million contract, and the Raiders are for real."

THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'

Paige Norwood (@crashfu14) - Lions & Steelers: "I sometimes wonder (and worry) about people and their tattoo choices. If you get Irezumi or specifically Chinese characters on your lower back, how do you know what it really means? Can you trust the artist or the translation? You might think you're getting "luck" or "peace," but are really getting "I like broccoli beef," "insert here," or "Matthew Stafford-san is my boo"? Blind faith perhaps. Lions and Steelers. Faith. "

Rob Norwood's title pool quest ended in Week 8, after he picked against Jay Cutler with a comment that included "Deadpool" and "farting rainbows." Never pick against Jay Cutler: LEADER with a comment referencing Deadpool and farting rainbows.

MORE PICK COMMENTS

Jared Kahn (@Jmkahn) - Giants: "I have managed to make it all the way to Week 11 without an NFC East pick. This is easily the hardest division to pick from because they are all wildly inconsistent. This is my opinion, but it is also the correct opinion. As I have stated (nearly every week) on BFIG, I am a die-hard Eagles fan. Born in 1993, I managed to bypass the Aikman Superbowl days without much heartache. I would hate the Redskins a lot more if they would, you know, act like a professional football team (excluding the past season and a half). But, the Giants? Oh man do I hate the Giants. There isn't a single team in all of NFL lore that doesn't deserve two Superbowl trophies like the Giants. There isn't a single qb that doesn't deserve two Superbowl trophies like Eli Manning. Again, this is just my opinion, but it is the correct opinion. However, this is BFIG. I came here to win. In order to win, sometimes you have to put emotions on hold and the NYG toilet paper in the closet."

Commish says: Jared, I believe you mean Elisha Manning. Please stick to correct and proper names when making pick comments. Thank you.

David Mick (@mick) - Steelers: "Well I waited until the last minute to write this up because I was waiting on Haiming Chu to make the post about the odds-on pick to win this pool. As of this writing, I haven't seen the post but I gotta make my pick so here goes! Anyway let's move along. I'm picking the Steelers this week. Most teams that lose a heartbreaker like they did last week just fold and get blown out the following week. Well, lucky for the Steelers, they are not that team, and even better they get the Browns. So basically it's a gimmie and I'm just happy that I still have them to pick unlike 50 percent of the other people in the pool who have already used them! Boom! Go me! The next highest pick will be the Lions... and well it's the Lions lol lol. They will lose just because they are the lions. Having said all that, I have to be honest. I know I haven't been good at picking the losers. Every week I say that my team wins and then this other team loses. With the exception of the Vikings losing to the Bears I've been wrong until this week! Lions lose. Second honest moment: My Bears lock to win the super bowl may be on life support but not dead yet!!! Oh and now that I think of it let's move back to Haiming Chu's post about the odds-on favorites to win this pool. I'll go ahead and write it for him... in two words... MICK WINS! "

Commish says: First, Haiming's analysis is so killer that it's taking Commish a bit to compile it and get it to you. It IS coming, though. Second, shit, you already wrote it. Third, David, Commish doesn't play favorites because he's a good and fair Commish, but if you surviving means these pick comments keep rolling in, then can you do me a favor and win every week? Gonna need you to do that. Also, can we get a triple lol next week instead of just a double lol?

Courtland Olson (@colson) - Chiefs: "Living in Omaha, I'm stuck watching the Chiefs nearly every Sunday. If you've ever caught a Chiefs game then you'd know this is one of the most boring and uninspiring teams to watch. I'd much rather watch Donald Trump read Charles Dickens' "Great Expectations" than watch a Chiefs game. That being said, they're talented...at home...now with Justin Houston & facing Tampa Bay. Like every week (except week 5) I assume this will be it & Tampa will knock me out like last year. It's been a good run"

Sean Gordon (@SeanyeWest3) - Cowboys: "Hold up. Hold up. Hold up. We dem boys!!!! #SEAnyeWestCoast"

Commish says: Dude, how is your username not SEAnyeWestCoast?

Mike Betts (@mbetts7) - Giants: "Getting close to the part of the season when I try not to shit myself as I make the selection."

Commish says: Mike, can you tell us when we reach that point in the season? You can, um, well, just tell us.

Dan Dreger (@trigger125) - Giants: "I should get the Moxie award for actually clicking on the Browns and looking at it for 72 seconds, before changing my pick. They get 10 days off, they're playing the most inconsistent team in the NFL, at home, in a division game. And I say it each week: the Browns are the best 0-10 team in NFL history. They're not going (un)undefeated. I clicked the Browns rationalized it in my head, then wussed out and took the Giants against the Chica-Who Cares? Cutler sucks, John Fox is an awful play caller, and the Windy City is a Baseball Town. But when the browns win, don't say I didn't warn you!"

Commish says: THAT'S NOT HOW THIS WORKS, DREGER. I can't even look Fake Moxie in the eyes. Disgrace.

Matt McNulty (@matt) - Lions: "I immediately regret this decision."

Scott Wagoner (@scottwagoner) - Lions: "Well, here we are. I never would have wanted to win without picking the Lie Downs, and it looks like it's now or never. I close my eyes, tilt my face skyward and await the cool embrace of the abyss as I hit submit on this pick. Metaphorically, I guess."

Commish says: Feelin' good about the Lions!

Gregory Bernstein (@gvb3) - Lions: "I googled who would win a fight between a lion and a jaguar and the expert consensus is that a jaguar would win. I then googled Blake Bortles and the expert consensus is that he absolutely sucks when the score differential is less that 28 points, and that he excels at both throwing interceptions and underthrowing 5-yard square outs. So I decided to pick Detroit."

Ken Sofer (@kensofer) - Patriots: "And so begins BFIG's "Ehhhh f*** I don't have anyone good left" phase"

Commish says: Ken said this in Week 8, Week 9, AND Week 10 of the 2010 BFIG season. In Week 17, he was crowned champion.

Rishi Khanna (@riskhanna) - Seahawks: "I'm into week 11. I saved SEA all season for this. You know what that means? Carson Wentz goes 74/81, 19 TDs, 4800 yards in the air (another 3000 on the ground). PHI wins 163-21."

Chris Walker (@Cjwalk) - Steelers: "Hey kids look, Big Ben! Two things are not going to happen, the Browns winning a game and the Steelers losing 5 in a row"

Commish says: Wait, the Steelers have lost four in a row? (Looking...) Oh, shit.

Jacob Spiro (@jakespiro11) - Steelers: "I just hope Cleveland really wants that first overall pick."

Commish says: Oh, they very much do.

Timi Kosztin (@TheGMs_GF) - Giants: "I'm so giant broooo"

Commish says: Let it be noted that Timi's comments are like this pretty much every week. That'll do it for Week 11!!

Good luck, everyone!