@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have been betting NFL games for years. Commish tends to overanalyze. His dad tends to... underanalyze. Together, it always seems to work out.
The dynamic duo is officially above .500 for the season. We thought last week was gonna be one for the books with one quarter to go Monday night. Then Oakland scored two late touchdowns and we had to settle for 7-5-2.
Nevertheless, we felt on the brink of a heater. And sure enough, we went 3-0 on Thanksgiving.
Commish ("C"): "You feel that, Daddio?"
BigDaddy ("BD"): "What's that, Pete?"
C: "Your seat - it's en fuego."
BD: "I love en fuego."
C: "I know you do, Dad. I know you do."
Home team in CAPS. Lines as of Friday afternoon. (Thursday games picked earlier in the week.) Picks result from the average of our two score predictions.
LIONS (-2) over Vikings
Commish: 17-16 Lions
BigDaddy: 28-21 Lions
BD: "28-27 Lions."
C: "You think the Vikes are gonna score 27 points without Stefon Diggs? In what universe?"
BD: "Was thinking their special teams and defense again. They scored 14 last week on an interception return and special teams."
C: "That's not sustainable."
BD: "OK. 28-21 Lions."
Washington (+6) over COWBOYS
Commish: 30-27 Cowboys
BigDaddy: 25-21 Cowboys
BD: "Division rivalry. Washington's been playing good football. I don't like anyone getting a touchdown in this scenario."
C: "We did pretty well last week on games we both agreed the favorite would win, but not by as much as the spread." (We were 4-1 in such games last week.)
BD: "If I was Washington, I'd come out with those really dark maroon unis. Those are GREAT. They'll look great against the Cowboys white."
C: "You think the Washington throwback unis are worth a few points?"
BD: "Mmhmm. They look like a different team - different squad when they wear those uniforms. It's like the Steelers. They've got those godawful uniforms, but every time they wear them they win."
C: "The Bumblebees?"
BD: "The Bumblebees!"
Steelers (-9) over COLTS
Commish: 30-17 Steelers
BigDaddy: 31-17 Steelers
BD: "I'm gonna go on the record and say one of these Thanksgiving teams today is gonna come out with throwback uniforms. Maybe Lions blue with all silver helmets - no decal, no Lion emblem."
C: "Aren't these things determined and announced before the game starts?"
BD: "The Packers surprised us once."
C: "Speaking of the Packers, when's the last time [Colts starting quarterback] Tolzien played? Never?"
BD: "I heard it was end of 2013 or beginning of 2014. No faith in Tolzien?"
C: "No."
Titans (-6) over BEARS
Commish: 27-13 Titans
BigDaddy: 28-10 Titans
Add'l hook on UNDER (42)
BD: "Line is Tennessee by six."
C: "Well, I have them by 14 and you have them by 18." [laughter] "Do you know who's playing QB for Chicago?"
BD: "No, who?"
C: "Matt Barkley again. Didn't go so well the first time."
BD: "I didn't know that. Too bad for Matt Barkley. You wish he'd been on some better teams."
C: So you just have zero faith in the Bears, then."
BD: "Where did Barkley start?"
C: "He was on Philly when they had all those retread QBs at the same time. Think about all the QBs Philly has had - Barkley, Sanchez, Tebow, Foles, Bradford, Vick. It's amazing.
C: "Let's hope the new guy sucks against the Packers."
BILLS (-7.5) over Jaguars
Commish: 28-20 Bills
BigDaddy: 30-20 Bills
C: "I have the Bills by 8, which would also cover the spread, but you have them just crushing the Jags." (BigDaddy's original prediction was 35-20 Bills.)
BD: "I think the Bills are for real. I think they've begun to think they're a good football team. They're at home. It's a hard place to play late in the year - I've been there. Crappy, cold, it's windy. Jags are a warm weather team. They've got nothing to play for."
C: "Alright, so Bills blowout, huh?"
BD: "I mean, if the line went to 8 or 9, I'd get a little suspect."
C: "You have them winning by 15."
BD: "Well, I don't know if the Bills will score 35. That's more like 30."
C: "You can't change it like that, Dad."
BD: "Sure I can."
Bengals (+4.5) over RAVENS
Commish: 21-20 Bengals
BigDaddy: 19-16 Ravens
C: "The Bengals are officially the 'I have no f***ing clue' team. We've had three Bengals games in the three weeks we've picked, and all of them have felt like a complete toss up to me. We predicted a 1-point game two weeks ago and it ended up a 1-point game; we predicted a 2-point game last week and it ended up a 4 point game. Do you feel anything for either of these teams?"
BD: "Division game; gonna come down to the very end. It's interesting Baltimore is favored by that much. I think there'll be a lot of people on Cincinnati."
C: "Why do you think they're favored by that much?"
BD: "You know, Dalton doesn't seem to be winning games this year. So maybe they've lost some faith in the quarterback. AJ Green is out."
C: "OH, that's right. That's what it is."
BD: "How much is he worth? 7 points a game?"
C: "Not that much... but clearly Vegas thinks he's worth 2 to 3 points."
BD: "I knew that and still have them winning just by 3."
Cardinals (+6) over FALCONS
Commish: 25-24 Cardinals
BigDaddy: 33-31 Falcons
BD: "Here we go. I'd watch this game if it was on national TV."
C: "Clear Arizona bet here. Man, 51 points [over/under]. That's not putting a lot of faith in Arizona's defense."
BD: "This will be a game that turns on turnovers. What's his name? Palmer. He throws a lot of bad passes."
C: "Would have been nice if he threw a few more bad passes in last year's Divisional Round [against Green Bay]."
BD: "Yeah. He's tough against the Packers."
C: "A lot of people look good against the Packers secondary."
BROWNS (+7.5) over Giants
Commish: 27-21 Giants
BigDaddy: 24-17 Giants
C: "We like the Giants by 6.5, so that means we're betting the Browns here. How do you feel about that?"
BD: "Hard to do. But that's how this works."
C: "Last time we felt this way, we bet the Niners against the Patriots and they pushed ... I think there's a chance the Browns win this game. The Giants are so inconsistent."
BD: "Giants gotta win every game to get to the playoffs. But, boy, if I had to put all my money on one team this week, they'd be my least confidence rating."
C: "Why's that?"
BD: "They could lay an egg. I have much stronger feelings about the Packers than I do the Giants."
C: "I think it's terrifying that the biggest BFIG survivor pick is Eli Manning in a road game."
SAINTS (-7.5) over Rams
Commish: 24-16 Saints
BigDaddy: 30-20 Saints
C: "We both have 'em by 8 and the line is 7.5." (BigDaddy's original prediction was 35-27 Saints.)
BD: "Why such a low over/under [45.5]?"
C: "Haha, you did the same thing last week. Do you remember? You forgot Jared Goff is their quarterback. You predicted 62 points in a game Jared Goff is quarterbacking."
BD: (Changes prediction.) "I'm still over."
Niners (+7.5) over DOLPHINS
Commish: 24-23 Niners
BigDaddy: 23-21 Dolphins
BD: "You've got the Niners going in there and winning by a point. Wow."
C: "I don't think the Dolphins are for real. Tiny margins winning against mediocre teams, and Tannehill is, still - as he's always been - a below-average quarterback. And Kaepernick has been playing well."
BD: "If this game was in San Francisco, the line would be different. But even if they were traveling, I'd still pick Miami."
C: "Well, Miami's home field advantage has never been very strong anyway. That probably factors into their home spreads."
TEXANS (+3) over Chargers
Commish: 27-20 Chargers
BigDaddy: 24-23 Texans
BD: "You've got San Diego covering; I've got Houston winning. Average is San Diego by 3.
C: "Our first stalemate!"
BD: "This could be one of those games where, what's his name, lights it up."
C: "Hopkins?"
BD: "Yeah, he's on your fantasy team right?"
C: "I found a poor soul who was willing to trade for him."
BD: "So what do we do here? Flip a coin?"
C: "Perhaps when we have different teams winning, we go with the team getting points."
BD: "OK."
BUCS (+6.5) over Seahawks
Commish: 30-24 Seahawks
BigDaddy: 24-17 Seahawks
C: "Heh, two in a row, Dad.
BD: "Yeah, look at that."
C: "Now we're on the same team to win. So what do we do?"
BD: "I think we stick with the same logic - go with the team getting points, in all cases. Plus, I think the Bucs are gonna give them a great game tomorrow."
C: "OK, so that's our rule? Always go with the team getting points if we pick the exact line?"
BD: "Points, baby."
C: "There's a stat on this, right? Underdogs cover more often, I think." (Looks up the stats.) "Since 2003, underdogs are 1625-1575, excluding pushes. So underdogs cover 50.8% of the time. Slight advantage, but it's amazing how good the people are at setting these lines."
Patriots (-8.5) over JETS
Commish: 31-10 Patriots
BigDaddy: 30-16 Patriots
C: "You have the Jets covering and I have New England in a blowout."
BD: "Why do you think that?"
C: "Don't the Jets have Bryce Petty playing? And I think the Patriots just want to cream them."
BD: "Ah, the Jets beat 'em the last time they played, didn't they. OK, I'm gonna change mine a bit."
C: "I really hope your changes make you look like some sort of gutcheck genius."
Panthers (+3) over RAIDERS
Commish: 26-25 Panthers
BigDaddy: 18-15 Panthers
C: "Easy one for us. Oakland is favored and we both have Carolina winning. Why'd we think the same way here?
BD: "Didn't the Panthers just smoke the Niners last week?"
C: "No, they beat the Saints."
BD: "Two weeks ago?"
C: "No."
BD: "Panthers win."
Chiefs (+3.5) over BRONCOS
Commish: 24-20 Broncos
BigDaddy: 24-23 Broncos
BD: "Our average is 2.5, so we're on the Chiefs."
C: "Our third 'we like the favorite but not by that much' pick of the week. Let's hope we're on to something here.
Packers (+4) over EAGLES
Commish: 30-27 Eagles
BigDaddy: 28-27 Packers
C: "I have to admit I'm a little surprised you have the Packers winning."
BD: "They got a few defensive players back - Ryan, the middle linebacker, and Rollins, one of their DBs. If they can hold their opponents to under 30 points, we've got a chance to win."
C: "It's sad that this is what it's come to - if they can hold their opponents under 30 points..."