Friends in fast breaks,
After the Conference Semis were a crazy party, the Conference Finals were a bit of a dud. Absolutely no offense to ANY teams of the teams involved, but my expectations were just too high. Here's hoping the Finals match the Conf Semis!
FINALS PICKS
- Playoffs Pick'em
- Finals Props
PICK STATS
Playoffs Pick'em
- DAL and BOS faced off twice during the regular season
- On 1/22, BOS won by 9
- DAL was "incomplete" as a team
- They were still missing Gafford and Washington who'd brought in via trade shortly
- On 3/1, BOS won by 28
- DAL didn't shoot well from 3, but their stats don't bad
- But BOS was ON FIRE
- They shot 55% from the field, including 49% from 3
- It's hard to beat a team hitting 20+ 3s, period
- And yet... We've got a tiny edge for Dallas!
- 51.5% of us picked DAL over BOS
- All lines have BOS as the strong favorites
- When you're trying to jump up the standings, you take the underdog
- So how much of our picking here is real, and how much is strategic?
Finals Props
- First of all, we hope you liked the Qs we came up with
- This was our first time doing Props across a multi-day event
- I'm not going to list out EVERY prop below (go here for that), just some highlights
- #1 Who will in the NBA title?
- 53.3% on BOS
- This tilts a bit more towards the favorites, but still not as much as you'd guess
- #2 How many games will the Finals last?
- 67.6% on 6 games
- Hot dang, I didn't expect that big of a peak on any particular game
- #4 What will be the most points scored by a player in a single game?
- 62.2% on 41 or more
- I choose to interpret this as we KNOW a flamethrower performance is coming, and I'm HERE FOR IT
- #6 Will L. Doncic get 60 or more RAPs (Rebounds + Assists + Points) in a game?
- 54.2% on Yes
- I just... He's crazy
- The fact this is nearly a 50/50 is crazy
- #12 Will there be one of the following sick dunks in a game: 360, Windmill, Off-the-glass alley-oop, Between the legs?
- 74.7% on No
- Booooooo, we gotta manifest some extra crazy every chance we get!
- #14 Will L. Doncic receive a Technical Foul?
- 50.2% on No
- This was LITERALLY 50/50 until the last moment
- #15 Will there be a wedgie/pigeon (ball stuck in rim or stuck above/behind backboard)?
- 18.2% on Yes
- YES, THIS IS THE CRAZY I WANT!
- #16 Will any player OTHER THAN L. Doncic, J. Tatum, J. Brown, or K. Irving score 25 or more points in a game?
- 72.4% on Yes
- How crazy is it to feel THIS confident that the 3rd man (or lower) will be putting up 25 in the FINALS
- #18 Will there be a 4 point play?
- 51.1% on Yes
- It is FRUSTRATING trying to find stats around 4 point plays
- But we know they'll be taking at least 60 per game
- So... math works out
- #19 What will be most 3s made by a player in a single game?
- 45.8% on 7 or more
- I definitely did research on this beforehand
- You know the record is 9, held by Steph?
- Ray Allen is second with 8
- Then 16 players with 7
- Ya'll are asking for a top 20 3 point shooting performance in the next 4-7 games!
- #20/#21/#22 Who will win Game 1 / 2 / 3?
- Taking majority votes, we think it'll be BOS / BOS / DAL
- All home teams? Snorrrrrre
BEST PICK COMMENTS
@Gamblers44 (Finals Props): "Confident not cocky I told her....."
GM says: Let this be your "Babe Ruth calling his shot" moment
@JoshAllenLooksGoodInShorts (Celtics): "Having gotten to witness the Mavs destruction of the Timberwolves up close and personal 3 times at Target Center...I'm going Celtics. It feels like a true 50:50, but Celtics have a lot of ways to beat you, and Luka needs to stay healthy and firing on all cylinders for the Mavs to win the series. "
GM says: That first sentence feels like a DAL endorsement, only to flip completely. You bamboozled me JALGIS
@Trentoff (Celtics): "Hard to pick against the four in a game of 2 against 4. Heart wants Dallas, head says Cuntlics"
GM says: Can confirm, 4 > 2. Source: I took Algebra once
@kbanaian (Celtics): "It really COULD be a sweep, but I'm more inclined to Boston in 7. Reading a lot into the boxscore and play-by-play of the 3/1 game. "
GM says: I heard one game samples are really extrapolatable
@YikesVikes (Mavs): "Can the Celtics finally get over the hump after years of near-misses? Or do the underdog Mavericks have one more upset up their sleeve? Boston has home-court advantage, is more rested and was the better team during the regular season. The Celtics dominated their regular-season series with Dallas, winning both games by a combined 37 points. Everything clearly says Boston but I don't think clearly so I say Dallas. Besides Mark C needs more money to invest on Shark Tank.............🦈🏀."
GM says: The freaking twists in these comments, loving it
@Gamblers44 (Celtics): "Let's go Celtics! Bring home #18!! Quick story:paid a ransom to attend game 7 last year.....the excitement & atmosphere outside the Gahden pregame was incredible! Paul Pierce rolled up in his Escalade, "let's go CELTICS he exclaimed, "we got this"!!! Half time, we were in it....played like shit first half but we were in it! Fast moving 3rd quarter, we look exhausted, bad feeling all overcame my body. 4th quarter, 8 minutes left, down 14 points, shooting 3's as if we were down 20 points, like WTF are we doing? Do we have a coach, do a have a time out? USE IT!!!! Nope....only got worse. Felt like I was gonna throw up, jumping from the 3rd deck was a better option. . Five drinks later and lots of yelling before I could even process what happened. We lost the NBA Championship! THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT!! Let's go Celtics! "
GM says: Visceral pain in the form of fandom ranting, this is a beautiful comment
@bowser48 (Mavs): "Oh, excuse me, I thought this was an N H L pick….🤩⭐️"
GM says: 100% serious, will be looking to talk to NHL fans about NHL SZN in the next month or so
@LVdude (Mavs): "Luca! The new GOAT!"
GM says: Luka, with a K! Respect your new GOAT!
@Sportsfan90 (Celtics): "Lfg Boston "
GM says: GLHF
@RedEd4 (Celtics): "Beantown raising another banner"
GM says: Ah, to be nicknamed after your history of baked beans
Yours in Roundball Rock,
The GM