@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have been betting NFL games for years. Commish tends to overanalyze. His dad tends to... underanalyze. Together, it always seems to work out.
Through four weeks, one thing is clear: We should only bet Thursday games. Including Thanksgiving's three-game slate, we're a flush 6-0 against the spread on Thursday.
C: "Another week, another Thursday victory, Daddio."
BD: "Ya. Let's hope we're 7-0 by the time we rendezvous at the frozen tundra of Laaammmmbeauuu Field." (Note: We're attending Seahawks-Packers in Green Bay next Sunday.)
C: "What is the craziest thing that's ever happened to you at a Packers game?"
BD: "Paul (@pauljaeger) and I went to Fuzzy's bar one time, and low and behold, there was the Golden Boy. They were having a great time."
C: "You partied with Paul Hornung and Fuzzy Thurston?"
BD: "Here Fuzzy is - he had a tracheotomy, so he has the tube through his throat - here he is, singing Roll Out The Barrel at his own bar. Paul and me were drunk as can be at the bar, watching all this happen in front of us. We didn't move for like four hours."
C: "That story is WAY better than what I expected."
Home team in CAPS. Lines as of Friday afternoon. (Thursday games picked earlier in the week.) Picks result from the average of our two score predictions.
VIKINGS (+4) over Cowboys
Commish: 20-17 Vikings
BigDaddy: 21-19 Vikings
Add'l hook on UNDER (44.5)
C: "We won our first hook!" (We lost our first six. We hook when we're both comfortably on the same side of the line and total.)
BD: "Yeah, we had the game kinda pegged there. Both teams couldn't score. What was halftime score?"
C: "7-3 Cowboys."
BD: "Can't ask for a better hook situation there. Apparently the Vikings just dominated time of possession. Hard to stomach a loss when you dominate time of possession."
Chiefs (+5) over FALCONS
Commish: 23-20 Falcons
BigDaddy: 27-24 Falcons
C: "We were 4-for-5 two weeks ago, and 2-for-2 last week on games where we both think the favorite is gonna win but not by as much as the spread."
BD: "I think that might just be random."
C: "You can't just say it's random. We're clearly geniuses, Dad."
BD: "Why is Atlanta favored by 5? It's like, c'mon. If they were favored by 3..."
C: "Then we'd be right on the nose."
BD: "And if it moved to 4? Well, we'd pick the Chiefs."
C: "That would be correct."
Lions (+5.5) at SAINTS
Commish: 28-27 Lions
BigDaddy: 31-30 Saints
C: "We both have a high-scoring one-point game. That means clear Detroit bet."
BD: "You're looking at two quality teams here. This will come down to probably a field goal."
C: "Every single Detroit game - we're talking 11 games now - has come down to the very end. They've been behind in the fourth quarter every game."
BD: "They believe in themselves. Stafford stands back there, and he's as good a quarterback as anyone in the league right now. The Week 17 Packers-Detroit game might not even be meaningful - they might run away with this thing."
C: "If Detroit wins this, they've got a 2 game lead on everyone in the division, with 4 games to go. Uncharted waters for Lions fans."
PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Rams
Commish: 24-10 Pats
BigDaddy: 33-14 Pats
C: "I tell you what, this line surprised me. And it's probably gone down, even, since Gronk was ruled out. I mean, we both picked them to cover... it's just a lot of points."
BD: "I've got the Rams scoring 14 points; you've got 'em scoring 10."
C: "They put up 21 in a hurry last week, and it was like, 'Whoa. Maybe Goff can play?' Then they didn't score the rest of the game."
BD: "They call that 'blowing your wad.'"
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Broncos
Commish: 17-16 Broncos
BigDaddy: 21-18 Jags
C: "Wow, you like Jacksonville to win?"
BD: "I like the Jags here. Getting points. December is when Jacksonville starts to win."
C: "(lol.)"
Texans (+7) over PACKERS
Commish: 27-20 Packers
BigDaddy: 28-23 Packers
BD: "The last time I saw the Texans at Lambeau, Matt Schaub beat us."
C: "What?"
BD: "We couldn't stop his naked bootlegs."
C: "Matt Schaub went into Lambeau and beat the Packers? By running naked bootlegs?"
BD: "Oh, it was torture."
C: "Looks like we're on the Texans here."
BD: "The Packers gotta give up a whole fricking touchdown. That is just sad. I don't think the Packers are that much better. They win one game, they look good in one game, and we get this spread. I wish it was 20 degrees colder. Brock played at Arizona State, right? I bet he's California raised (Note: Montana raised). I wish this game was a month from now. It takes a while to get the blood flowing... it's even harder when you're 6'6"
C: "We can pick Houston, but I'm not putting money on it."
BD: "Good."
Eagles (+1) over BENGALS
Commish: 17-16 Eagles
BigDaddy: 24-22 Eagles
C: "Here we go again. This would be the last game I would bet on. Every week, Cincinnati's game is like this - we've predicted, like, 1-point games in all of their games - and I call it out every week."
BD: "Bengals have how many wins? 3? 4? Eagles have their backs against the wall? ... I don't really have anything to say. You're right. This sucks."
Dolphins (+3.5) over RAVENS
Commish: 20-19 Dolphins
BigDaddy: 20-18 Ravens
BD: "I think it's an under game."
C: "Yeah, I mean both teams' defenses are stronger than their offenses, but the line already reflects that."
BD: "Both teams have something to play for. Coaches are gonna be conservative. Field position."
C: "I think my highest scoring fantasy football player is the Ravens' kicker."
BD: "No shit? Matt Prater?"
C: "Close, Dad. Justin Tucker."
BEARS (+1.5) over Niners
Commish: 31-27 Niners
BigDaddy: 24-21 Bears
BD: "(Laughs) Niners at Bears."
C: "The toilet bowl! You like Barkley, don't you"
BD: "I do. He seems to have stabilized things there.
C: "Because he's not Jay Cutler?"
BD: "Did the Bears win last week?"
C: "No, because their receiver flat out dropped a touchdown pass in the end zone. A bunch of BFIGers survived because of it. What's it like to be a Bears fan right now, do you think?"
BD: "Doesn't matter. Everyone just wants to be a Cubs fan."
Bills (+3.5) over RAIDERS
Commish: 30-27 Bills
BigDaddy: 32-29 Raiders
Add'l hook on OVER (48.5)
C: "You've been on the Bills train all year. You jumping off?"
BD: "I like the Bills, but they're facing a very very good team. You and I talked pretty early on that the AFC West was gonna be pretty good, and sure enough. Top to bottom the best division, even with the NFC East doing as well as it is."
C: "I think the Cowboys would be favorites vs. the Raiders and Chargers, and a pick'em vs. the Broncos and Chiefs. Every other NFC East team would be a 'dog vs. any of the AFC West teams."
Giants (+6) over STEELERS
Commish: 27-26 Steelers
BigDaddy: 24-23 Steelers
C: "Second case this week of agreeing on a favorite winning but not by the spread. Man, that line is HIGH."
BD: "They know something we don't know. It's gotta be that they just don't believe in the Giants, or that they don't match up well with the Steelers. I'm certain that there's some analysis going into that line."
C: "I mean, I don't believe in the Giants, either, but I'm still gonna bet them with that line."
Washington (+2) at CARDINALS
Commish: 24-20 Dumpster Fire
BigDaddy: 33-29 Cardinals
C: "This is probably the game we're furthest apart on this week, right?"
BD: "You think Washington is only gonna score 20 points?"
C: "It's like you say - Cousins is erratic. And Arizona's defense is opportunistic."
BD: "This would be a huge win for the Cardinals. They're sucking wind. They're not gonna make the playoffs."
C: "Three of the NFC's final four are on the outside looking in - Green Bay, Arizona, Carolina."
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Buccaneers
Commish: 29-23 Chargers
BigDaddy: 30-27 Chargers
C: "Bucs are hot, but San Diego's good. Saw a survey today - I don't know who the experts were, but question was, 'Which of the five young promising quarterbacks would you build a franchise around?' Who would your ranking be?"
BD: "Mariota, Dak, Carr, Wentz, Jameis. I like Mariota. He's a really good student of the game. He's smart. Got a good arm. I think he avoids sacks. He doesn't throw games away."
C: "The experts ranked it Carr, Wentz, Dak, Mariota, Jameis."
BD: "Well, we agree on #5. I don't know how you could put Mariota below Wentz."
Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS
Commish: 21-20 Seahawks
BigDaddy: 24-23 Seahawks
(BigDaddy's original pick was 23-23) C: "Did you seriously pick a tie?"
BD: "Ooh. Oh. That's not good."
JETS (+1.5) over Colts
Commish: 30-27 Jets
BigDaddy: 21-17 Jets
C: "How many free beers would it take to get you to watch this game?"
BD: "(Laughing.) I tell you, it was electric at US Bank Stadium last night for the Vikes game. They came out in those dark uniforms and I thought, 'Boy.' They looked good, they played well, they just can't find a way to win. They give up games."
C: "I'm gonna take that as 'Can't offer me enough beers.'"