
Brothers and Sisters of the BFIG Battlefields,
By the numbers, this was our most "Ummm, ok, why not" week in BFIG history.
We were Jeff Fisher coaching decisions when his team is above .500.
We were Andy Reid's Kool-Aid flavor waffling when his quarterback is frantically trying to grab his attention to make a time out decision. (And you thought he was just a bad clock manager.)
We were Jameis when faced with, well, any decision at all.
No team has a ton of picks, but a ton of teams have some picks. For the love of survival drama, let there be chaos!
Week 13 picks:
WEEK 13 FAST FACTS
- At just 20 percent of title pool picks, New England is our smallest top pick in BFIG history. That's a record that will be really hard to break.
- 70 percent of the people with New England still available picked the Patriots. That means 28 mysterious souls are still waiting to use their TB12 Trump card (pun more or less intended).
- The Pats are now in their familiar position of being the most picked BFIG team (by percentage of alive title poolers). Just 8 percent of those remaining have the Pats available.
- Next is the Packers (13% available), followed by Arizona (15%), Miami (19%), and Cincinnati (19%).
- The Falcons, currently DVOA's top team in the NFL, are still available for 93% of title poolers. Amazing.
- We have five teams with at least 10 percent of total picks - only the second time that's happened this season. Week 6 was the other time, and those five picks went 3-2 that week.
- After the Patriots' 20 percent, it's Broncos (17%) at Jags, Packers (16%) vs. Texans, Saints (13%) vs. Lions, and Raiders (12%) vs. Bills. The Seahawks (vs. Panthers) also nabbed a healthy 8 percent.
- The Patriots are favored by a whopping 13.5 points over the Goffischers, even without Gronk, but our five other big picks are all sitting between 3.5- and 7-point favorites.
- Historically, favorites in this range win 70 percent of their games. Using that probability, there's a 17 percent chance all five of those decent favorites win their games. 4-1 boasts a 36 percent chance, 3-2 has a 31 percent chance, and 2-3 has a 13 percent chance.
- This is the Patriots' 12th pick this season - we've picked them in every game they've played. Their nine survivor wins have brought their BFIG-leading all-time total to 44.
- Entering the year, the Packers and Patriots were tied at 35 all-time BFIG wins, on an island to themselves relative to the other 30 teams. The Packers are still comfortably ahead of the rest, but in a distant second, with 39 wins.
WEEK 12 AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
MY VOICE HAS BEEN HEARD. One week after the Moxie was vacated for the first time this season, you came roaring back. This was Commish's most difficult Moxie decision of the year. Do I give it to the person (@AL1104) riding a 3.5-point underdog on the road? In nearly any other week, that'd be a Moxie lock. Problem is, that person was up against someone who endeavored to pick a football game between the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers. Clearly the 2016 NFL's Toilet Bowl, this game features a 2-9 team with its third-string quarterback throwing to a receiving corps without any of its top three receivers, against a 1-10 team that hasn't won since Week 1. To place anything of value on this game, you'd either need to be a maniac, or HAVE A METRIC TON OF MOXIE BABY YEAH! Sure, @Chri1562's pick (San Francisco) is favored by 1.5 points, but the notion of a "favorite" in this game is pretty damn meta. Cheers to you, Ben. You've got some serious Moxie, kid.
Commish Communication Award
Arguably the hero of BFIG takes this season, @mick, has not yet received a weekly award. It's time to change that. A lifelong and die-hard Bears fan, he picked... the Packers this week. Let's hope this is a diary entry he doesn't light fire to tomorrow...
"Sad week for me... not much I can say. I never thought it was possible but I'll be rooting for the packers this week. :moment of silence: Actually, forget that moment of silence. Let me just say, I swear, Packers and Co... I really do... don't you dare do it to me. Don't do it to me. Please just don't. Don't do me like you did on my 15th birthday when Brett Farve rolled in with the bum ankle, threw 5 touchdowns, and beat the Bears 35-28 when the Bears were 6-2. Then after that game, ran real bad and missed the playoffs by a game. Don't do me like the 2011 NFC championship when Raji had that pick six, then Hanie got all our hopes up (side note he played better than expected besides the two picks) only to throw another pick in the red zone with 43 seconds left. Don't do me like Week 17 2013. I had to listen to that on the radio on I-64 at the end of a 13.5 hour drive. First time I visited my wife's family. I'm suprised she married me after that (but she is a Lions fan so she understands)... Long story short let's just say I got a little fired up, especially when the radio lost reception before the play that we won't talk about. Anyway, what I'm saying is, come on Packers. I don't hate you guys. I really don't. I'm just a Bears fan and this is hard for me. Just don't let me down and shatter all my football hopes and dreams this time. Let's work together this week."
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
To anyone who's been wrestling with their picks on a weekly basis, waking up in cold sweats, losing untold hours of productivity at work... let @TheLargeTuna be your guiding light. Just act like the Title Belt isn't on the line. $40K? Who cares. There are much more important things in life than your Broncos pick:
"I have been flip flopping back and forth between the Broncos and the Seahawks. While Denver potentially starting Paxton Lynch on the road against, what can at times be a very legit defense, is scary, Carolina seems like a team that could win any week. Ultimately this pick came down to the fact that the Westworld season finale is going to be airing during the Sunday night game. How could I not watch that live? I don't want to put any spoilers out here, but there are a few theories that I am really waiting to see potentially explained. With that in mind, picking Denver became a lot easier."
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Per this week's Fast Facts, this is the most distributed picking week in BFIG history. What explains the lack of big picks? Oh... duh. Take it away, @mwuzzardo (Raiders):
"Well, I'm screwed. My 3 card Monty this year has been CLE, CHI, and SF. It's Bears vs. Niners, and the Browns are on a bye. It's been fun, but this is where I bow out."
THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'
Paige Norwood (@crashfu14) - Patriots & Packers, Second Chance: "Ah, the holidays. The warmth of generosity flows, enriching the lives of those less fortunate for about three whole weeks. Nothing screams charity like depositing unwanted cans of cream o’ dogshit soup in the company food drive bin. The wellbeing of your fellow man is best served by telling him to get the fuck out of the way when there’s a $50 off Playstation 4 Bundle door-buster at Best Buy. It’s like they don’t know that it comes with an extra controller AND Star Wars Battlefront. One might be more inclined to put a few beans in the Salvation Army bell ringer’s kettle if they were backed by field artillery or a mechanized infantry division. More warheads on foreheads this holiday season. It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Mom’s drinkin’ liquor, A pistol’d be quicker, So let’s go drink beer. It’s the most wonderful time of the year! NFL Tiebreaker? Eagles"
Rob Norwood's title pool quest ended in Week 8, after he picked against Jay Cutler with a comment that included "Deadpool" and "farting rainbows." Never pick against Jay Cutler: LEADER with a comment referencing Deadpool and farting rainbows.
THE COMMISH AND BIGDADDY PREDICTION TRAIN ROLLS ON... AND DAMN IT LOOKS GOOD
We're now 6-0 in Thursday games. That's great, but its greatness doesn't hold a candle to @BigDaddy's story about his craziest Packers game experience.
Read it for the predictions, but definitely read it for the story...
READ COMMISH & BIGDADDY'S NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@lgjendem (Broncos, Raiders - Second Chance): "Dear Abby (Commish), In this infinite sea of fish (20 remaining teams), I struggle to find a true love between the whole lot. There are many suitors (not really, this week is hot garbage with a side of roadkill) and each vies for my attention, and choosing one has become increasingly difficult. There is Trevor, a very safe gentleman with no thrills. He won't surprise you with lavish gifts or unplanned trips, but he'll be there for you every night and will always do the best for us as a unit. There is Russell, who I have already had relations with in the past, but please keep that between us. Lately he is so up and down and I feel like I never know what kind of mood he will be in next. Also between us, I feel like he may be seeing someone else on the side. Then there's Derek, who is refreshing in everything that he does. He just feels new and exciting, and that his always trying to impress you. He has given me no reason not to trust him, yet, i'm scared that this fairy tale could end at any moment. Finally there is Colin. A wildcard, a grifter, a swindler, and a cheat. He's unpredictable and has treated those around as so. But yet, there is something about him, I want to believe in him, and be by his side. To take him from the bottom and watch as he blossoms at the top. But, there always that image in the back of my head, he will hurt you like he hurts other. Abby (Commish), help me pick the right wooer, the one who will take me to where the grass is the greenest. Please, if anything, just pray for me this week."
Commish says: Where's Chapter 2? I WANT CHAPTER 2!
@paulkim (Patriots): "This is it. Nobody can pick against the browns, and fading the bears or 49ers means picking the bears or 49ers. The only fade play is jags @ home against a possibly (probably?) Paxton-led broncos... after a 99.1% win-week, BFIG is feeling an unprecedented level of invicibilism. Invincibility? It doesn't matter, we're all f***ed. The one thing I know for sure, maybe, is that everyone who still has the pats is using them this week, probably. Confidence is high right now, I think. Save me from doomsday, Clark Kent... err, Tom Brady. F***."
Commish says: We've broken another BFIG record. Most uses of "invicibilism" in one week.
@cpufixrman (Broncos): "Sooo... My cat... he's finally speaking to me again. Well, more like howling at me in the mornings so I'll give him his daily noms. Looking back at my picks... While I didn't start off with a clear-cut strategy, in the end my mid-season picks have paid off. Barring any unforeseen injuries, my remaining options have a 70% or better chance of successfully defeating their opponent with some of those over 80%. I feel good going into the final 5 weeks. Bring on the pain... and blood... as my cat continues to insist on sitting in my lap during the game."
Commish says: First, I'm so relieved to hear you and your cat are doing well. Second, I've been seeing a lot of this "my path is clear!" nonsense, so allow me to clarify something many of you probably know but few of you are acknowledging. Even if we agree each remaining game is 75% in your favor, (0.75)^5 = 23.7%. That means there's a greater than 75% chance you *don't* survive the gauntlet. Commish doesn't run kiddie carnival games, yo.
@dinosarducci (Cowboys): "I have no reasoning for this except I was gonna pick Denver but now Siemian might be hurt... so Im going with Dallas who should roll the Vikings with no offense and that defense has been suspect as of late."
Commish says: I always enjoy these. I call them the "I WAS SUPER WRONG BUT I WON SO LALALA" takes.
@i_luv_beaver (Saints): "My roommate, baba_ghanoush - a lifelong Lions fan - would kill me if he ever saw this pick. I'm telling him I'm picking CHI. FYI, baba_ghanoush currently no longer competes in the BFIG because he picked the Lions."
Commish says: Hey, @baba_ghanoush. Hi. Your roommate is a goddamn traitor. Love you guys. Bye.
@jdp529 (Broncos): "Commish why do you think we have so many still in it this year? is it that we have become smarter? Or is it that we become less emotionally attached to our favorites? Or is it that the BLL can of your choice is available now. Anyway, I've had too many and need to stop rambling.
Commish says: This is a rhetorical question, right? (*Sound of another BLL being cracked open*)
@Jmkahn (Broncos): "This week in the NFL is bit of a toss up. A "Mile-High" toss up, if you will. *pause for laughter.* It is just the time of the year where seasons are made or broken and I for one, *take off glasses and examine them,* am feeling weary. New Orleans is playing like the giant-killers they are, Oakland is cruising but may be down one Mr. Carr, I'd sooner bet on Amazon stock than Pittsburgh, and Dallas *clench teeth and grip fist,* well, Dallas just keeps winning. Denver is in no way a reliable pick, especially on the road. *rub temples, drop alka-seltzer in glass.* However, I've been to Denver many times. Therefore, I know the two surest things each Denver-ite knows. You will be out of breath when you get to the top of the staircase, and that Denver D is large, in-charge, and is coming for you. *finger-guns and wink until everyone if uncomfortable. slowly walk backwards out of room. maintain eye contact.*"
Commish says: I'm so embarrassed right now.
@kwons03 (Packers): "Commish's updated rules: The Green Bay Packers... are gonna beat the Houston Texans"
Commish says: YEAH BUT NO. The Green Bay Packers are going to win the Super Bowl. See? I just validated BFIG's No. 1 rule. I appreciate your pick, @kwons03, but don't try to out-commish Commish.
@gvb3 (Packers): "No one comes into this house without paying the price. Not now. NOT EVER! I still believe in Aaron Rodgers as an elite QB, Olivia Munn as an elite human being, and that the Packers may just find a way to make the playoffs again in spite of Mike McCarthy. This one's for you Commish. Crack open a BLL and enjoy watching your Pack steamroll 72 million dollar Brock and the gang. Let's go Cheeseheads!"
Commish says: YOU are an elite human, @gvb3. BTW, do you know Olivia? Can you tell her "hi" for me? Tks.
@aarslovin (Patriots): "I understand that it is a rare year in BFIG land... over 300 people left? Almost certainty that multiple people are going to take it to the wire? Maybe 100 or more? And I am picking, far and away, the best team I have remaining in the Pats, and they are playing the lowly Rams. However, I am so sure that this is the end... because it's just how things work out being from Cincinnati. You know... the place where Carson Palmer tears his knee up on the first passing play of a playoff game against the hated Steelers, and the Bengals self-destruct every other year in the playoffs (and completely miss their window of having a championship squad). Where Kenyon Martin breaks his leg in the conference tourney when the Bearcats were ranked #1 in the nation. The city that houses the Reds a team that hasn't won anything noteworthy in almost 30 years and has embarrassed themselves in the playoffs. These years of being a Cincy fan has prepared me for the inevitability of going out in Week 13 of BFIG with the LA Rams defeating the Pats in a Vegas-shocking beatdown. Thanks Cincinnati. "
Commish says: I vividly remember the Kenyon Martin injury. It was my first conscious "oh shit that's a devastating injury and now his team has no chance" sports moment.
@codem0n (Broncos - BFIG Survivor Pool): "The coaching, clock management, and qb play really impressed me Sunday night. Why not?"
Commish says: Burn. Sick burnnnnn. (Survival gods golf clap.)
@brbarbour (Patriots, Broncos - Second Chance): "In honor of sacrificing to the gods and making deals with the devil (here is looking at you, Utah State), I am calling upon the powers of Steve Young and Jim McMahon to ensure that everyone else picks the Browns and 49ers. Just crown me the Second Chance Champ now and be done with it. Now, to explain my references: I am a BYU fan, and our poor - as in poor bastard and a poor man's Tim Tebow - QB, Taysom Hill, just suffered his fourth season ending injury in his collegiate career, three to Utah State (two to the same player!). Some may call bad luck; I claim something fishy has been going on up in Logan. Shady deals? Oh ya! Time to turn the tables, harness the power of BYU greats, and practice my Heisman pose for receipt of the Second Chance trophy! (And, yes, I know this is an NFL survivor league...)"
Commish says: A poor man's Tim Tebow... is that, like, a junior varsity utility outfielder?
@RotoJeff (Saints, Packers - Second Chance): "Have you ever run a Loser's Pool? Where you can only take the Browns once, or the Niners once, etc....? In a year like this one, that might prove to be a pretty difficult exercise."
Commish says: Considering one for next season! But this year it would have ended in, like, Week 5, right? (Kidding... well, maybe not.)
@TheGMs_GF (Packers): "Green Bay bay! Green Bay bay! *to the tune of ay bay bay by hurricane chris* You can't unhear it!"
Commish says: MORE! MORE!!
@Adambrandvein (Packers): "Ahhh a lovely cheese pizza just for me."
Commish says: I LOVE CHEESE PIZZA. I LOVE THE PACKERS.
Good luck, everyone!