@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have been betting NFL games for years. Commish tends to overanalyze. His dad tends to... underanalyze. Together, it always seems to work out.
Two things have made the past six days rough in BigDaddy & Commishville: First, after an admirable start by almost anyone's standards, we're 0-7 in our last seven picks; second, I learned The Swami is like 50-25 on the year against the spread. The Swami!
But we're picking the games this week from Football Mecca - Green Bay, Wisconsin. Does picking games in-person make you better? YOU BET IT DOES.
Commish: "Dad, we can't win. What happened? Is your confidence shaken?"
BigDaddy: "That [Tyreek] Hill dude. He was our undoing Thursday. Untouched punt return touchdown. Packers haven't had a special teams touchdown in... I don't know, Paul, have we had one all year?"
Paul: Well, they got Cobb back there returning punts now. Before it was Jordy. Ty [Montgomery] does a few."
C: How do we have, like, our three best receivers fielding punts?"
P: Well... it's all we have."
BD: "Put No. 12 back there."
C: "Oh, that's a brilliant idea, Dad."
Home team in CAPS. Lines as of Friday afternoon. (Thursday games picked earlier in the week.) Picks result from the average of our two score predictions.
Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS
Commish: 24-20 Raiders
BigDaddy: 17-14 Chiefs
C: "I admitted before this prediction that I hadn't given the Raiders enough credit all year. I give them credit, and they lay a total egg."
BD: "Carr oil."
BILLS (+3) over Steelers
Commish: 24-19 Steelers
BigDaddy: 21-20 Bills
C: "Dad, you think Buffalo is going to beat Pittsburgh? Really?"
(Everyone): "Nooooooo."
BD: "It's gonna be snowy and cold."
C: "That's all you got?"
BD: "Buffalo has more to play more."
C: "No they don't. Pittsburgh is tied with Baltimore for first in the AFC North."
BD: "Has anyone been to Buffalo in December?"
(Everyone): "No."
BD: "It's not a good place to be."
EAGLES (+2) over Washington
Commish: 21-20 Dumpster Fire
BigDaddy: 27-24 Eagles
TITANS (pick) over Broncos
Commish: 17-13 Titans
BigDaddy: 21-19 Titans
Add'l hook on UNDER (43.5)
C: "Peyton Manning sucked last year and they still won everything. Are we wise to pick against them?"
BD: "That's a good point. But can they hold the other team to three scores? I don't think so."
C: "You really like Mariota."
Vikings (-3.5) over JAGUARS
Commish: 24-20 Vikings
BigDaddy: 21-14 Vikings
BD: "Well, their head coach is back."
P: "Coaching from the sidelines with 'special sunglasses.'"
BD: "They're saying win one for the Zimmer."
C: "But what are they winning for? He had, what, eye surgery?"
BD: "I mean, you gotta rally around something."
Bengals (-5) over BROWNS
Commish: 30-20 Bengals
BigDaddy: 21-14 Bengals
C: "Does anyone here feel the Browns are gonna beat the Bengals today?"
P: "The Browns are gonna get off the schnide."
BD: "Tom (tduffy) said he went to StubHub just to see what seats were selling for at this game. Lower bowl, behind the bench: $20. And there were upper level seats for $4."
DOLPHINS (+2) over Cardinals
Commish: 24-19 Cardinals
BigDaddy: 30-27 Dolphins
C: "The Dolphins looked like they were exposed last week. Just got annihilated by the Ravens."
BD: "It's OK. They were all drunk from Fidel's passing."
Chargers (+1.5) over PANTHERS
Commish: 35-30 Chargers
BigDaddy: 33-30 Chargers
Add'l hook on OVER (49)
Bears (+8) over LIONS
Commish: 17-16 Lions
BigDaddy: 29-29 Lions
C: "You don't think the Lions are gonna have any issues?"
BD: "I've told you. I think the Lions have a great team this year, and Caldwell is a good coach.
C: "We're undefeated on Lions games so far - 2-0-1.
BD: "It'd be BFIG apocalypse if the Bears won today."
Texans (+6.5) over COLTS
Commish: 31-20 Colts
BigDaddy: 24-23 Colts
C: "After last week (vs. the Packers), how do you have any faith in Osweiler?"
BD: "Divisional game... it's gonna be close."
C: "Osweiler couldn't hit... he couldn't hit any part of the damn giant wreath over there."
BD: "Super Bowl's gonna be in Houston this year."
P: "(Laughs) Does that impact the spread?"
C: "And the game is in Indy, Dad."
BD: "Sticking with my prediction."
NINERS (-3) over Jets
Commish: 20-13 Niners
BigDaddy: 24-21 Niners
John the Niners fan: "Hey, what's the Niners spread? We have a chance today."
C: Niners are 3-point favorites.
Jesse: That will be a bad game.
Falcons (-7) over RAMS
Commish: 30-20 Falcons
BigDaddy: 31-20 Falcons
Add'l hook on OVER (45)
PACKERS (+3) over Seahawks
Commish: 27-24 Packers
BigDaddy: 24-21 Packers
C: "Do we both actually think the Packers are gonna win?"
BD: "Jesse, what's the score gonna be?"
J: I'm thinking close game. 27-24 Seahawks."
P: "I'll give you the local paper's four predictions: 26-21, 23-17, 24-21, 20-17, all Seahawks."
C: "They all went Seahawks?"
J: "(Laughs) That's crazy."
C: "Dad, maybe we should write for the paper instead."
BUCS (-3) over Saints
Commish: 29-27 Bucs
BigDaddy: 31-24 Bucs
GIANTS (+4) over Cowboys
Commish: 24-20 Cowboys
BigDaddy: 24-23 Cowboys
C: "We both like the Cowboys but not by enough. So that means we're betting the Giants. We're 0-4 on Giants games."
BD: "Shit."
C: "I guess if you're ambivalent and it's a divisional game, you go with the team getting points."
BD: "I mean, they're receiving corps is as good as anybody. You're seeing two trends late in the season - teams who can protect their quarterbacks, and teams who have great secondaries. If you don't have either, people aren't buying you."
Ravens (+7) at PATRIOTS
Commish: 22-14 Patriots
BigDaddy: 30-28 Ravens
BD: "Baltimore is the one team that has New England's number. They've beaten them up there in the playoffs, they've beaten them up there in the regular season. Harbaugh isn't a disciple of Belichick."
C: "You've never been a crowd follower."