@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have been betting NFL games for years. Commish tends to overanalyze. His dad tends to... underanalyze. Together, it always seems to work out.
After a 10-5-1 Week 14 showing, we're back on track. Though we've always picked games together, we've never picked ALL the games, and never in this fashion (averaging our two score predictions). And through five weeks, a few distinct trends have emerged...
First, we end up picking a ton of underdogs. A lot of it is the natural effect of averaging your predictions. It's far easier to say "I think this game is gonna end up close" than it is to say "I just feel this one is gonna be a blowout." And if one person picks a tight game, the other is gonna have to go way high for you to still bet the favorite.
Second, we run hot (and cold) with specific teams. There are still teams I look at today, five weeks into doing this, and say, "I have no f***ing idea." We've been good on Lions and Vikings games (NFC North familiarity?) and terrible on Bills and Raiders games. Random? Perhaps. But it sure feels pattern-like.
And third, it feels harder than ever to predict over/under totals. We've always sensed this, but with our higher volume of predicting - and thus, higher volume of paying attention to games we'd otherwise never watch - it becomes super clear how much things like special teams touchdowns and bad luck turnovers affect point totals. We've done OK with our hooks, basically winning the expected one of every four. But average is not fun. And blocked punt return touchdowns when riding the under are most definitely not fun.
Home team in CAPS. Lines as of Friday afternoon. (Thursday games picked earlier in the week.) Picks result from the average of our two score predictions.
Rams (+15.5) over SEAHAWKS
Commish: 24-14 Seahawks
BigDaddy: 31-17 Seahawks
BigDaddy: "I think the Seahawks are gonna cover."
Commish: "Dad, that's not how this works. You gotta predict the score."
BD: "31-17 Seattle."
C: "The spread is 15 and a half."
BD: "Shit!"
After we lost this bet, we reflected on that interaction...
C: "You know, that'd be an interesting way to predict the games. We look at the matchup and simply say who we think is gonna cover. We always more or less know what the lines are gonna be. Only real question is how we'd break ties when on opposite sides?"
BD: "We never have a problem breaking ties."
C: "You're right. We're predictive pushovers."
JETS (+3) over Dolphins
Commish: 17-16 Dolphins
BigDaddy: 16-14 Jets
Add'l hook on UNDER (38.5)
C: "What a barn burner. Excited for this one?"
BD: "I think Tannehill is playing."
C: "No, he's definitely out. But I don't think Tannehil is any better than Matt Moore. And wait, you still picked the Jets, anyway."
BD: "Tannehill sucks."
Packers (-6) over BEARS
Commish: 31-20 Packers
BigDaddy: 21-14 Packers
NOTE: I'll be updating our commentary shortly. Wanted to get the PICKS email out before kickoff.
Browns (+10.5) over BILLS
Commish: 27-17 Bills
BigDaddy: 21-10 Bills
Eagles (+6) over RAVENS
Commish: 20-19 Ravens
BigDaddy: 20-17 Ravens
Titans (+5.5) over CHIEFS
Commish: 25-20 Chiefs
BigDaddy: 24-20 Chiefs
BENGALS (+3.5) over Steelers
Commish: 22-21 Bengals
BigDaddy: 17-16 Bengals
Lions (+4) at GIANTS
Commish: 17-16 Lions
BigDaddy: 24-21 Giants
VIKINGS (-4.5) over Colts
Commish: 20-13 Vikings
BigDaddy: 31-21 Vikings
Jags (+5.5) over TEXANS
Commish: 17-16 Texans
BigDaddy: 31-24 Texans
CARDINALS (-3) over Saints
Commish: 27-24 Cardinals
BigDaddy: 34-31 Cardinals
Niners (+13.5) over FALCONS
Commish: 31-20 Falcons
BigDaddy: 30-21 Falcons
Chargers (+3) over RAIDERS
Commish: 30-28 Chargers
BigDaddy: 28-24 Raiders
Patriots (-3.5) over BRONCOS
Commish: 23-17 Pats
BigDaddy: 24-21 Pats
Bucs (+7) at COWBOYS
Commish: 24-17 Cowboys
BigDaddy: 21-17 Cowboys
Panthers (+6.5) at WASHINGTON
Commish: 31-20 Dumpster Fire
BigDaddy: 21-20 Dumpster Fire