
Matt Moore Bandwagon Marauders,
This has nothing to do with our picks this week, but have you stepped back and thought about the AFC South's quarterbacks? Blake, Brock, Marcus, and Andrew.
That's either the best or worst collection of quarterback names ever assembled in one division. It'd only be better if Curtis Painter was still under center for the Colts.
Commish was thinking about names because Matty Moore is lighting up the Jets right now, BFIG rode Matty Stafford big last week, and we're riding Matty Ice even bigger this week. The Falcons (61 percent) are our most voluminous pick of the year, and Commish just wrote voluminous. On with it.
Week 15 picks:
WEEK 15 FAST FACTS
- One week after Detroit became this season's majority pick standard bearer (60 percent of title pool picks), Atlanta ascended the throne at 61 percent.
- Atlanta has the league's best offense by a number of measures, has been in the top 3 by overall DVOA for most of the year (third right now), and yet was still available to 179 title poolers going into this week - 75 percent of those remaining.
- The Falcons' usage rate was 81%, with 145 of 179 possible people picking them. Commish believes that's the highest usage rate so far this year.
- Commish highly doubts everyone was saving Atlanta for Week 15, though that certainly became a larger factor in the back half of the season. More likely, for whatever reason(s), Atlanta still has the look of a team you can't really trust. It doesn't help that the 2015 Falcons started 5-0 only to finish 8-8. This year's edition started 4-1 and is currently 8-5.
- More interesting is who the 34 people not on the Falcons picked. Five were on Seattle, one on Minnesota, two on KC, six on Houston, one on Dallas, one on Baltimore, and 18 on the Bills.
- So nearly half the people on Buffalo (41 picks; 17 percent) could have taken Atlanta. Either anti-Browns felt better than anti-Niners, or they're hoping for a Icepocalypse.
- The Browns are 0-13 and the Niners are 1-12. The NFL has never had two teams finish with less than two wins.
- 15 people still have the Pats available. It'll be interesting to see if all 15 take the Pats next week, home to the Jets.
- Laughably, 179 still have the Raiders - owners of the NFL's third-best record - available. Related: The Raiders will not play the Browns, Niners, Bears, or Rams this year.
- The team we've most picked against each week, starting with Week 1: Dolphins, Niners, Browns, Dolphins, Browns, Niners, Bears, Bears, Jags, Niners, Bears, Browns, Rams, Bears, Niners.
- Are you surprised it's only been the Browns three times? Commish was.
WEEK 15 AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
The Moxies have been subject to some brutal comeback losses of late. Sadly, it appears the Moxies will finish below .500 for just the second time in BFIG history. Well, wait. The Browns could win today. Right? RIGHT?! I can't tell you exactly what @bsquirrel was thinking, but I do know he was part of the group that picked the Ravens (down 20 to the Browns in the first quarter) in Week 2 and Dolphins (survived missed Browns FG at the buzzer) in Week 3, so maybe he feels his karmic destiny is coming to fruition.
Commish Communication Award
"But wait," you say. "Two people picked the Browns this week." That is correct. So why does only one get Moxie? Well, in part because he asked for it, allow Commish to present to you one of BFIG's best-ever cases for making sure the pick you clicked is what you thought it was. If the Browns win today, @pmenchini is getting his own custom profile trophy and a story he'll be telling for decades to come:
"I wake up every morning to a small scar above my naval, and it reminds me of a rather low point in my life. A point in my life when I had, dangling from by belly button, a shimmering indication to the world that I was the last place finisher in my fantasy football league. But today we all have the chance to witness a true redemption story, as I come out of my week 1 fantasy football playoffs bye the leading point scorer for the 2016 season. Not only that - here I sit making my Week 15 pick, still clinging to the chance of taking home the BFIG title. The only thing I can do is what got me here... pick against the Browns every opportunity I had. This one is for the Changs."
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
YOU PLAY... TO WIN... THE GAME. From @BRO_D4 (Chiefs):
"I play for first place. Picking Atlanta, Seattle or Buffalo this week is the easy and sensible choice for people, but I'm not a sheep who's hoping to share places 2-100 by picking safe. Give me the glory Commish and give it to me in $1 bills."
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Since I explained the Bengals Tickets award last week, I'll explain the Not Concussed award this week. You need to teach us something, or show us something new and cool. Literally anything. Anything to prove you aren't concussed. THE BAR IS NOT HIGH. @lgjendem (Seahawks & Bills - Second Chance) jumped over the bar:
"Since Pete Carroll joined the Seahawks, the team has lost 6 out of 13 games against the Rams. Over those years there has been 2 seasons in which the Seahawks won both games (2011, 2013) and 1 season in which they lost both (2015). For those of you counting at home, that means 3 seasons with 1 team winning both, and 3 seasons with the teams splitting their two games. But here's what splits the Carrolls for the Kiffins at USC: Every year the cycle changes. On even years the teams split the games (2010/2012/2014), on odd years 1 team will win both (2011/2013/2015). Since the Seahawks have already lost a game to the Rams this year, then by rule of the hamskin they will win their second game. SCIENCE! Oh and I picked Buffalo because they are playing the Browns. I don't think I need to sell you on that. SCIENCE!"
THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'
Rob and Paige Norwood are both out of BFIG after the Colts ended Paige's valiant Second Chance quest last week. Rob and Paige, we salute you for your fine, fine efforts this football season, and we can't WAIT for your contributions to our first-ever Bachelor pool.
DAVID MICK'S IRRATIONAL AND INEVITABLE MARCH TOWARD THE TITLE BELT
@mick's logic is awful. His enthusiasm is fantastic. His rationality is poor. His charisma is off the charts. David Mick is a walking paradox. David Mick will also, inevitably, be our champion.
@mick (Falcons): "Man life happened and I almost didn't get to submit my professional analysis. But luckily I was able to sneak it in. Things are starting to get real now! I'm not going to lie I'm starting to feel it and we aren't even in the money?!?!?! If you would have told me I would be picking in week 15 I would of told you "yeah man picking for 40g's!!!!!" But I'm not, and that has me confused. It's the same feeling I have when I find myself thinking Matt Barkley is the future!!! I mean he isn't right???? Right??? Well maybe?!?! Seriously what is going on? Anyway I should be avoiding ATL and HOU as they will be very highly picked and upsets are due to happen but I think ATL is a lockity lock. (That's like a double lock so good you can't avoid it.) Couple that with the fact that 50+ people picked them last week so I gotta go with them. Also I don't need to be greedy right yet because I'm kinda doing the best, minus a game, in the tie breaker so I can be patient. So that's why I'll take ATL have the browns win and the texans lose move on to next week and shock the world with a pick that wins it all!!!!"
COMMISH AND BIGDADDY WENT 10-5-1 LAST WEEK. HERE'S OUR ENCORE
Were it not for the Jets big comeback against the Niners, we would have been a sterling 11-4-1 last week.
Pretty sure if we picked every week together in the shadows of Lambeau Field (like last week; hey, Russ, got another pick for us?), we'd run Vegas out of business.
READ COMMISH & BIGDADDY'S NFL WEEK 15 PREDICTIONS
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@codem0n (Falcons): "Easiest pick of the season, We're all doomed"
@cpufixrman (Texans): "The numbers say that the Falcons should walk all over Sack or Pick, but looking at history, the 49ers have won the last few matches between these two teams. Granted they weren't the "sucking so hard that light barely escapes" team they are this year. Still... with so many able to pick, and likely will pick, the Falcons to win... I'm going with the Jacksonville at Houston game and my money is on the Texans. They've won 18 of the 29 times these two teams have played, and well... I'm betting on a miracle that the 49ers knock out 2/3 of the remaining players."
Commish says: Hmmm. Hmmmmmmm. HMMMMMMMM!!!
@kosman101 (Bills): "If I lose at least I'll get to see Rex Ryan be fired, so I've got that going for me."
Commish says: Is there a surer thing in all of football than, "The coach who misses the playoffs in part because he lost to the 0-13 Cleveland Browns will get fired"? Didn't think so.
@mwuzzardo (Falcons): "I am one of 20ish survivors who have not only made it this far but have made it this far by dodging 3 lightning strikes. Week 1: KC 21 point come from behind OT win vs SD. Week 3: Miami OT win thanks to CLE missing chip shot FG as time expires. And now Week 14: Detroit Stafford scores TD's for both teams in the 4th qt squeaker win vs CHI. I expect to be a perfect 17-0 at the end of the season and I will be taking the full 1st place prize and either buying power ball tickets or putting it on Red 23 at the nearest casino!!!!! GO DIRTY BIRDS this week. ATL"
Commish says: Five people started KC-BAL-MIA (adding Baltimore's 20-point comeback win over the Browns to your early season lightning strike avoidance) in addition to picking the Lions last week. The six of you should get in touch, find a ghostwriter, rent out a ridiculous Vegas suite, and write the book that'll become the 21st century's greatest story.
@TheGMs_GF (Falcons): "Commish I got this. Second prize better be ready to buy me a fancy ass dinner."
Commish says: This is, if you haven't already guessed, @TheGM's girlfriend. Per SZN rules - because, yo, this isn't some shady DraftKings shit - she can't win any prize money because she lives with The GM. But she CAN win the Belt... which means whoever gets 2nd gets the $40K. She's also 6-0 in the Tiebreaker. I hope you find this as (potentially) hilarious as I do.
@Jmkahn (Falcons - BFIG Survivor Pool): "This week for BFIG I am going back to my roots. I hate Chip Kelly. What he did to the Philadelphia Eagles organization will have detrimental repercussions for years to come. He is a bad person and worse football coach. He's the type of person that will kick you in the nuts and then blame it on your dick. I know that the 49ers awful team is not totally his fault, but, let's agree to give him full blame. I am very much looking forward to Chip losing another one and then trying to defend himself (and his job) during the post-game show. Hey Chip, go kick rocks."
Commish says: You abandoned the Chip comments for a while. It's clear now that you never should have abandoned them. Chip comments only. Deal?
@aktrotta (Seahawks & Bills - Second Chance): "Might be getting close to another youtube celebration if this works out."
Commish says: For the uninitiated, in 2014 BFIG, Trotta said he was gonna celebrate his win like this baby. I said prove it. He did. IT'S TIME FOR ANOTHER, TROTTA.
@titansman4927 (Falcons): "Matty ice rolling the dice."
Commish says: Isn't it nice? Toss to Mike Tice. Eliminate the vice. Minimize the rice. Go get that TD thrice. (I'll be here all week.)
Good luck, everyone!