
Hoard of Harambe and Harbaugh Holiday Hooligans,
I have no idea what Harambe and Harbaugh have in common. But pretty sure someone should make a t-shirt featuring both of them. Think of them sitting on a bench... nay, sitting on Albert Haynesworth, heads turned to the sky as BLL flows into their mouths, poured from one, Brockweiler.
Who isn't buying that shirt? WHO ISN'T BUYING IT?
This whole Saturday games thing has thrown me off, so Commish is gonna keep it short. But don't you for a second think I'm sacrificing any shtick.
Week 16 picks:
WEEK 16 FAST FACTS
- As expected, this week is a complete quagmire. San Diego (at Cleveland) is our top pick, with 22 percent of title pool selections - the second-lowest late season top pick in BFIG history.
- Overall, there are 19 teams in play. Nineteen! This is one of those outlier stats that makes people think the statistician (or commentator) is absolutely hammered. Check it out:
- Total number of teams picked in BFIG Week 16: 4 (2009), 3, 0, 2, 0, 4, 0, 19
- So, yes, we more or less quintupled our previous record for Week 16 variance.
- We're on opposite sides of three games - Chargers (51) at Browns (3), Giants (7) at Eagles (1), and Bucs (1) at Saints (1). To put that in perspective, we've never had a single game with people on opposing sides after Week 10.
- Thus, it's assured chaos will reign this weekend. But because we're so spread out, it also means catastrophe basically can't happen. If our top three picks lost, there'd still be more than 100 people alive.
- This is the seventh week in which Cleveland has been picked. Obviously, the Browns are 0-6 so far - already the worst mark in BFIG history. But if they manage to win today, it's arguable whether their record would stay the worst...
- Philly was 0-5 last season, tying Dallas (2010) for the most BFIG losses in a year. The Cowboys, though, managed to also win a game in 2010. If Cleveland wins, is 1-6 better than 0-5? Commish thinks so.
- Some of this shit is so obscure. I love it. Hope you do, too.
WEEK 16 AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
We just witnessed a (slightly) favored team, though definitely the team with the better record, lose a divisional road game because... well, good teams often lose divisional road games. It takes serious guts to pick a division game, let alone picking the road team, let alone picking JAMEIS, an A-list destroyer of survival dreams. Alas, that is what @jackbootedthugs has done. And he knew he was getting the Moxie:
"OK, Commish. I had a come to Jesus talk with myself (which in and of itself was a spiritual experience, more on that later) and realized I have to get off the beaten path and reach for the stars, or some such bullshit. So, I am taking the Bucs over the Saints in the hope that the Raiders and Boys get upset. Without hope all we have is sex and alcohol, which when you think about it, gives us hope. Anyway, I deserve the Moxie award if for no other reason, for the way my mind can wander endlessly and obliquely as I bloviate ad nauseum about... I forget, so, Merry Christmas!!! Oh, I remember now, because I referenced that great John McKay quote last week, so I think I actually created my own omen. How poignant that is. And if we don't win this year, the Thugs will be BACK!!"
Commish Communication Award
I figured it'd only take one week. And indeed, it took just one week. But I HADN'T realized that we have a SZN'er in our midst with the perfect complementing username. This man saved the Patriots until now, and this man also, well... take it away @David_Northstar:
"It is clearly a sign when a guy named Tom Savage saves a guy who goes by David Northstar... well, it's a sign or a soft core adult movie on Skinemax."
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
This pick isn't quite convincing us of anything. Wait. WAIT... INVERSE BENGALS TICKETS AWARD!
@shortballer21 (Rams): "I know, I know... I'm thinking the same thing."
Definitely Not Concussed Award
While Week 16 is usually a "normal" week as far as resting starters (or playing young guys in hopes of learning something) goes, Week 17 is almost always not normal. @kyezrsoze (Packers) gave us a strong Week 17 forecast, but to this I say, "If the Colts lose today, they have nothing to play for, right?" Hmmmm. HMMMMMMM!!!
"I predict that no matter what happens in week 16 that week 17 is going to see almost everyone left on the Colts. 210 people still have the colts alive in BFIG! And they have an 85% chance to win in week 17. So anyone that has NE (15), SEA (35), or PIT (45) left will probably all be taking them in week 16...although PIT has a 93% in week 17 so some of those 45 might save them for the last week as well as a few SEA. We're going to have the largest single team selection of the year in week 17...a virtual lock pick across the board. It's like destiny is shaping the course of 2016 BFIG so we all load up on the Colts in week 17 and then have them lose! Bwahaaahaaahaaahaa! Of those 19 that already picked the colts, 12 already picked SEA, and 8 already picked PIT...FOUR people of the 229 that might make it to week 17 are going to be on someone else besides IND, SEA, or PIT. I love it. If I don't live through week 16 then I'm rooting @keliansuaya, @zrenk, @boockford17, and @j8choi AND for SF, JAX, and CLE to pull out a week 17 win. Some people just want to watch the world burn, and that will be me if I don't make it through this week."
DAVID MICK'S IRRATIONAL AND INEVITABLE MARCH TOWARD THE TITLE BELT
@mick's logic is awful. His enthusiasm is fantastic. His rationality is poor. His charisma is off the charts. David Mick is a walking paradox. David Mick will also, inevitably, be our champion.
@mick (Rams): "Aw yeah!!!!!! Its time to go nuts!!! I told yall last week that it would be time to finally go crazy. No I'm not taking the Bears yet but I am taking the Rams! Here is where my head it at. I finally thought about why I am doing this league. I'm doing it because I obviously want to win it all!!! The 40k not just get my money back. Right now there are 58 or so people with perfect records in the tie breaker.... I unfortunately am not one of them, so that means I need to get lucky. Thats why I'm on the Rams. Everyone in the league will be picking NE (if they have them), SD or Tenn. Well heres the thing: Cleveland will win this week. They will do so because there is a reason teams dont often go 0-16. It's really hard and the Browns wont be beating the Steelers next week so this is all they got and they will get it, because again its extremely difficult to go 0-16 even if you are trying. On to why I'm fading Tenn. Well I honestly dont think they are that good. All of there wins have been close and they let teams stay in the game far too much. What type of game is that perfect for you might ask... Yep think about it... Garbage time Jags. Bortles is the king of last minute scores and this time Tenn lets the hang around long enough for that score to matter. So there it is. I got to get some help but this week is perfect for me to stay off the top 3 picks and benefit. Yeah Yeah I know the 9ers shut out the Rams earlier but since then the 9ers have allowed close to a million rushing yards this season and Gurley is due to explode and he will this week! I'm so confident in that I am putting Gurley in all my DFS leagues. You should do the same. So there you have it text book play on how to win something like this. The best part about this too is that the SD and Tenn games are early so I get to slowly watch my plan come together with those two teams losing. then at 4 i get to watch my master piece conclude with a Rams field goal with time running out to win it!"
COMMISH AND BIGDADDY TRIED OUR FIRST-EVER VIDEO... IT DIDN'T WORK
Right in the middle of our favorite betting story, the video cut out. #technologyprobz
In favor of getting this out and enjoying the holiday with my fam, here are our picks. Tons of home teams early, and all road teams late. Home teams in CAPS:
PHILLY (pick) over Giants; PACKERS (-7) over Vikes; Dolphins (+4.5) over BILLS; PANTHERS (+3) over Falcons; BEARS (+3) over Dumpster Fire; BROWNS (+4.5) over Chargers; JAGS (+5.5) over Titans; PATS (-17, lol) over Jets; RAIDERS (-4) over Colts; SAINTS (-3) over Bucs; Niners (+4.5) over RAMS; Cardinals (+8) over SEAHAWKS; Bengals (+1) over TEXANS; Ravens (+6) over STEELERS; Broncos (+3.5) over CHIEFS; Lions (+7) over DAKS
Last week: 6-9-1
This season: 44-42-6
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@jdp529 (Packers): "Thank goodness I have the Packers still."
Commish says: WHAT A GOOD MAN!!
@scottwagoner (Raiders): "I'm afraid that when I click "submit" on this pick John Madden is going to bust through the wall like the Kool-Aid man, screaming incomprehensibly about winning being a great deodorant."
Commish says: If you win it all, can you please reenact this in a YouTube video? Please and thanks.
@TheBengalsGuy (Chargers): "No Sir... The Bengals Guy has still not taken the Bengals."
Commish says: WTF?! What better week than this week? Do we all REALLY think Tom Savage is the truth?
@codem0n (Giants): "A few weeks ago is when I started to look ahead at the schedule. I like to treat my survivor like NFL teams say they do, one game at a time. But I'm as full of shit as boring ass coaches press conferences when they say that. I knew if I was fortunate enough to make it this far, then this would be the bloodbath. I'm not sure what teams everyone else has available but most likely people will be riding the Chargers, Titans, Redskins, maybe Rams, maybe Raiders. Which if you look at that collection of teams is an absolute mockery of football. Lately I have been playing the "whoever is playing the shitty niners or bears or browns game" but it's time to stop running from competition, stop looking at vegas spreads and trust a team that has played well to play well. the New York Football Giants have the 4th best record in the NFL, they have yet to clinch anything and need to win one of their final two games. The Eagles have lost 5 straight and are now eliminated. I feel this is the match up for me. I just have to ignore the fact that the Giants are only 2.5 favorites, ignore the fact that its on the road, in their division, against a team that hates their guts, on a Thursday where anything goes. I will also ignore the fact that since 2010 the Giants are 4-9 against the Eagles including 1-4 in the last 5. At least this will all be over Thursday. And lastly and most importantly, my favorite sports team, the San Francisco Giants, did not win the World Series this year. I was so confused and hurt because it was an even year, I was promised, it is my birthright to be granted a WS on an even year this decade. But now I realize the Giants will win in week 16 2016, for me... The New York Football Giants #dontstopbeliEVEN...right? ON TO WEEK 17!"
Commish says: I mean... well... hmm. In all seriousness, I feel you, man. It's Week 16. If there's ever a time it's OK to get Eli Faced, it's an absurdly balanced Week 16.
@dbarker524 (Giants): "As a Pats fan, Eli owes me. Big time. Or he is going to destroy my hopes and dreams one more time. I'm sure it's fine. What can go wrong? I can't believe I'm going to root for the Giants!"
Commish says: You were far more level-headed than codem0n. At least you knew you were gonna get Eli Faced.
@jbeck224 (Titans): "Do i pick a team at CLE but with nothing to play for? One of the best teams at home but against IND who looked like world beaters? Or a team on the road at JAX who could react any way with a new coach... how many times can I squeeze out victory over the Jaguars? Hopefully one more..."
Commish says: I need to look this up, but it's almost certain that the Jags have been the most picked against team in BFIG history. I'd venture to guess they have a lead of at least 8 weeks. So, at least historically, the answer to your question has been, "Actually, you have several more weeks if you'd like."
@Jmkahn (Chargers): "I really do not feel good about this NFL week. Like at all. I do not like my pick. Not one bit. I am picking the Chargers. I had originally chosen the Rams. Playing the 49ers, it will be a guaranteed slugfest for 60 minutes. I am looking forward to Chip Kelly losing another bad game. Man, I hate Chip Kelly. For those of you who might not know, Chip Kelly is a bad person with worse moral standards. Chip is the type of guy to invite himself to the holiday party, eat all of the coconut shrimp, spill the expensive scotch, take an upper decker and give an Irish-Goodbye. He sucks. After some soul searching and a few texts from some other Kelly haters (my fellow Philly fans), I realized I don't want to put my BFIG season on the line on a campaign of hate. Because it's finally almost 2017. And, getting eliminated by losing to Chip Kelly would make me question if the football-gods even exist. So, I'm hoping the Browns go full Browns on Saturday. Go Chargers!"
Commish says: A man of your word! But wait, does this mean there are no more Chip comments from you in 2017? Also, it'd be fantastic if Chip came to my holiday party and ate all the coconut shrimp.
@kensofer (Titans): "If you told me at the beginning of the season I was picking the Titans on the road in week 16 and feeling pretty good about it, I'd have laughed in your face, but here we are apparently."
Commish says: If I told you at the beginning of the season you were alive in Week 16, you would have said, "Lightning doesn't strike twice, Commish." (Note: Ken is the only BFIG champ still alive.)
@matt (Patriots): "I've held out long enough. The possibilities of me winning it all are slim due to a poor week 1 showing in the Tie-Breaker pool going 1 of 3. The road to get her was a rough one, full of mental torment, rooting for teams I don't care for, and copious amounts of beer and wings. I was nearly knocked out of the BFIG Survivor Pool week 1 picking OAK over NO. I've never bled Black and Silver, but if you were to have seen me at B-Dubs watching that game, you'd have thought I was the leader of Raider Nation. More anguish came again in week 2, BAL trailed CLE 20-0 in the first quarter. Week 3, Jay Ajayi would keep me alive in the Survivor Pool by running in an OT TD. Going with the notion that CLE is a horrible team, I picked WAS in week 4, but held out on using NE in week 5. Instead I would pick PIT at home against the NYJ. Then in week 6 I would almost be knocked out of the Survivor pool again by picking TEN over CLE, surviving by the skin of my teeth. Week 7, CIN over CLE, easy. Week 8, DEN over SD, easy. Week 9, NO over SF, easy. Week 10 got a little interesting, Krapernick would run in a game tying TD with less than 2 mins left in the 4th quarter. Having watched so many of my fellow Survivalists get knocked out by ARI, I thought I was soon to follow, but SFs porous defense set up a game winning FG. The next couples of weeks would fly by choosing DET over JAX, NYG over CLE, GB over HOU, and ATL over LAR. Now, I do not classify myself as a religious man, but in week 15 I would pray to the Gods of Football and have them put all their power into Tom "The Savior" Savage. Somehow, my prayers were answered and I would become part of an elite pack. It is week 16 and I am still ALIVE!"
Commish says: If you win, you're framing this (along with your recounting of Weeks 16 and 17) and hanging it right above your bed so you can pray to it every night, right? Asking for the survival gods, not me.
That'll do it for this week. Good luck, everyone!