Front Row Patrons for The Brockweiler Revenge Tour,

There isn't really an official funfuego meter, but this weekend...

WHO AM I KIDDING? There is absolutely an official FUNFUEGO METER and it's dial is set to MAXFUEGO. So much going on this weekend, Commish's head is spinning.

I'm giving you BFIG pickoff picks: Will our Title Belt find its new home? I'm giving you a statlicious, Moxie-infused NFL Playoffs HasselBracket breakdown. And I'm giving you more pickoff picks: Second Chance and NBA Survivor are both picking off for a title, too.

ONWARD. I SEE OUR FUTURE. AND IT'S ELECTRIC GREEN WITH 3 PERCENT ABV.

Wildcard Weekend pick summaries:

• BFIG pickoffs (title pool and Second Chance)
• The HasselBracket (NFL Playoffs Pick'em)
• NBA Survivor pickoff is below

FIRST, THE PICKOFF FOR ALL THE MARBLES... MIGHT PRODUCE ANOTHER PICKOFF NEXT WEEK

Though Commish was reallllly hoping he'd see @nbossert or @jmanfield go full Moxie in an epic overthrow of Stephen A. Smithian logic, I wasn't surprised to see them both come up chalk:

"CR" is Confidence Ranking (1 = most confident), which serves to break ties on overall record. And thus, we have a very simple Title Belt scenario this weekend:

• If the Seahawks become the latest track on Miracle Matt and the Motor City Kitties' latest album, @nbossert is our champ by virtue of having a lower confidence first loss.
• If the Steelers make Matt Moore the latest Brock Osweiler, who was the latest Nick Foles, who was the latest Matt Flynn, meaning the Dolphins overcome a 10-point spread, @jmanfield is our champ by virtue of having a lower confidence first loss.
• If the Seahawks and Steelers win, we do this again next week. It would be the second Divisional Round pickoff in BFIG history - the first one ended in quite the memorable fashion.
• Since the Steelers and Seahawks are both big favorites, most models have them between a 70 and 75% win probability. That means there is a 0.7 * 0.7 chance (0.49, or basically 0.5) that they both win. That means each guy has a ~25% shot at claiming the Belt, and a 50% shot this thing goes another week.

HASSELBRACKET KICKOFF: COMMISH KNOWS YOU WANT THE BALL, BUT ARE YOU GONNA SCORE?

In all-too-fitting fashion, the NFL's Instagram account just posted a video of this competition's namesake.

For the unitiated, it was Seahawks at Packers. 2003 NFC Wildcard game. Favre's former backup (Hasselbeck) vs. Favre. It went to OT. Hasselbeck said this at the coin toss, then promptly threw a pick six. Packers win.

Our first-ever HasselBracket picks, followed by analysis:

Analysis:

• As is standard - just look at any of our Two-Week Survivor competitions - favorites get picked at an even higher rate than their win probability suggests they should.
• You look at Miami, which garnered just 5 percent of HasselBracket picks, and you could make a compelling argument that the people on Miami made the best pick of the weekend.
• Most models give the Dolphins a 20-25 percent chance to win. That's a huge leap over our 5 percent backing, and makes those Miami picks the highest leverage picks of the weekend.
• That said, the Steelers are probably gonna win. That IS a stastical argument in some sense, but it's moreso a "live to fight another day" or a "I don't want to pick a team I think will lose" argument.
• DVOA is the en vogue measure of power ranking teams. You'd be hard-pressed to find larger DVOA gulfs in recent playoff memory. The matchups: OAK (11) at HOU (29); SEA (9) vs. DET (27); PIT (5) vs. MIA (17); GB (7) vs. NYG (10).
• That's right. DVOA has the Texans and Lions as two of the six worst teams in football this year.
• Now, it's nearly impossible to account for the presence of Connor Cook starting at QB for the Raiders. There's simply little-to-no historical precedent. If David Carr was starting, Oakland would be favored by at least 3 or 4 points (an ~8 point swing).
• @dubrock7 picked all four underdogs. His comment: "Let the DOGS eat!!!! Wild 1st weekend. Enjoy." Wait, who else would enjoy this, man?

Reminder: The HasselBracket is NON-elimination. It's simply best record wins. Everyone should pick through the Super Bowl.

YOUR BEST HASSELBRACKET PICK COMMENTS

@JulioJonesBBQandFootMassage (Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Giants): "The Oakland Raiders vs the Houston Texans is the first playoff game with absolutely no playoff implications..."

Commish says: Wouldn't you love to get a report of everyone you know who bet on this game? Do you stage an intervention, or does your admiration for them instantly double?

@cuttydoesit (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "There is no way all four home teams win, there is also no way Seattle or Pittsburgh lose a playoff game at home, and Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of his mind, so those 3 I have to pick. That leaves the Carr-less Raiders against the Texans. And since not every home team will win and the other three are clearly locks as previous stated, analytics guarantees a Raiders win. Also, I have waited over a year to bet against Brock Osweiler in a playoff game, the Broncos robbed me of that last year, and Bill O'Brien almost did the same until TOTALLY REDEEMING HIMSELF and announcing Brock would start this week, giving me the greatest gift of 2017, free money to take the raiders and the points against the brocketship."

Commish says: @cuttydoesit is on the list!!

@Frenchie16 (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "After watching the regular season end in total chaos with favorites winning nearly all the time, it is time to step out of the box and into the Lime light (Bud Light Lime Light). To get into the BLLL, you must go against the Tide (Go Clemson), you must look for the impossible to be possible, you must look for the golden ticket in the big pile of dog poop. Like other famous athletes with the initials CC, like Calvin Coolidge who out egg-rolled 45 little kids on three consecutive Easters while in the White House, but was upset by a 9 year girl in year 4; or Charlie Chaplin who came out of nowhere to almost qualify to try out for his high school speed walking team, this is Connor's "Don't blame the Cook" chance.. Opportunities for greatness come rarely and must be grabbed. This is CC's change to grab the BLLL and go with."

Commish says: I have a very poor idea of what's going on in this pick comment, BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER! THE BLLL! DEFINITELY has to be a thing going forward.

@ColonRingworm (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "This is was almost a big week for QBs named Matt in the playoffs. We were heading towards a potential FOUR Matt week. And I know for a fact that I would not be able to resist the All-Matt pick. But alas we've regressed to the Matt mean. Matt McGloin got hurt to give way to the young Connor "not Matt" Cook, and Matt Ryan continued his league dominance to secure a 1st round bye. So here we sit with only 2 Matts, and 0 being chosen by me. But... there is still a chance, an opportunity, a glimmer of hope... for the All-Matt pick next week. Stay tuned."

Commish says: If it happens and anyone goes with the All-Matts quadrifecta pick, I will create a special profile trophy just for you. WORTH IT.

@TheGM (Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "There's really just two things you need to know about The GM. 1) He builds the site and 2) He sucks at picking. Let's hope #1 keeps working out and maybe #2 can turn around?"

Commish says: Hey everyone, look! The GM is actually alive in a competition!

@Reimdiggity (Texans, Lions, Steelers, Packers): "Monday Morning Headlines: 1) The Brocketlauncher Explodes Oaklands Hopes of Survival. Forever. 2) Upset City Lies in Sleepless Seattle. 3) Dolphins Hate the Cold, head back to Miami for good. 4) RELAX, the Packers only played Eli."

Commish says: I like this! More Monday Morning Headlines! Also, Miami is most definitely the team that inspires the least interesting barbs. Every year. Does anyone care about Miami? If Miami wasn't in the league the past 20 years, would anything have changed? (Mandatory "Commish loves you, Dolphins fans!" note.)

@mcgive_it_to_me (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "Oakland at Houston. I never thought I'd see the day where I would rather watch HGTV than a playoff football game."

Commish says: I learned that HGTV is like the third most watched cable channel this week. Blew my mind. Seriously?

@baba_ghanoush (Raiders, Lions, Steelers, Giants): "I've been a die hard Lions fan my hole life and I don't know why I allow myself to get tricked into believing that they won't shit the bed. After the Lions did Lions things and ripped my heart out Sunday night, I drank myself into Bolivian and then cried myself to sleep. I just want everyone who roots for a good team to feel my pane and know that they shouldn't take their team for granite. Anyways, I thought about saying good writtens to the Lions after they lost the division, but if I stood with the Lions threw 0-16, I midas whale stand with them as they head to Seeatle. You herd it here first, Lions 34 - Seehawks 27!"

Commish says: (Applause.) (RAVENOUS APPLAUSE.) Also, sorry, man. If it makes you feel better, Packers fans simply get their hearts ripped out a few weeks later every year.

@40ozToFreedom (Texans, Lions, Steelers, Giants): "Colin Ringwood may look like Matt Hasselback, but his picks are wrong and he is a fool."

Commish says: PHOTOS.

@Kobe (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "Commish, longtime spectator, first time picker. Studied hard for my picks and then realized I generally suck at picking games, so went against my intuition and picked against myself. Pure Confidence in my lack of confidence. Happy to be here."

Commish says: This might be the most perfect pick comment to ever be uttered by someone with the username @Kobe.

@alexmace4 (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "I am absolutely stoked about the Bachelor Rosedown Competition. Dolphin Girl had to be absolutely blasted on BLL's during night 1."

Commish says: Unconscionably blasted. She was hammered. (HAMMERHEADED? ... Hammered.) Go join our Bachelor competition, people.

@iantasso (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Giants): "Honestly I should probably go all 4 home teams here, because that's what will most likely happen. But I'm taking the G-Men over the Packers because this is such a classic Eli game it's not even funny. Like if they were playing any other team, it would be a loss. But on the road, in Lambeau, against a red-hot Packers team with Rodgers playing lights out? That's the game Eli wins. And he'll do it by under handing a perfect spiral 60 yards down the field that Odell will catch with his facemask Leave it to Beaver-style. Oh and as for the Texans Raiders game, who the hell knows. Two sad quarterbacks. Two sad franchises. But the Texans are sadder, so I'm picking the Raiders. At least we don't know if Connor Cook is terrible yet. We're very aware that Brock is."

Commish says: Stop it, @iantasso. STOP IT.

@cwledwards (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "Remember when USC won the 2017 Rose Bowl? Because that was a real thing that definitely happened. Penn State scored touchdowns on seven consecutive offensive possessions, a stretch that included four touchdowns on four consecutive offensive plays; their last play of the first half and their first three plays of the second half. As a general statement, that is a devastating and demoralizing run of football. BUT! (big but): Sam Darnold is a machine, Clay Helton is for sure our guy, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree Jackson are both no doubt all-time Trojans, CLANCY'S BACK, and now we that we have the same number of scholarship players as other teams, we can actually play a full game without fatigued dudes. That still doesn't explain how it happened, but USC won the 2017 Rose Bowl!"

Commish says: Christian's comment was three times this long. Do you know what that means? USC WILL WIN NEXT YEAR'S NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. Chooo chooooooooooooo!

@23champ (Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "Eli will never become 3-Li. Also, nobody has ever said those nice things about me before. Do you want my phone number?"

Commish says: When people respond directly to our pick comment prompts, it makes me happy. In other news, YAS OF COURSE.

@sommerszg (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Giants): "I'm cool and fun and wise and charming."

@NoPepper5 (Raiders, Lions, Steelers, Packers): "I'm cool, fun, wise and charming. I appreciate you, Commish, for noticing! "

@lucaspasch (Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "I'm not cool or fun or wise OR charming"

@Beast4life (Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "Likely going 0-4 here. The SZN is the most amazing website ever because it has humbled me. I do not have 100% confidence in myself anymore, and in fact quite the opposite."

Commish says: I THINK YOU'RE GREAT, THOUGH.)

@mahatma19 (Texans, Lions, Steelers, Packers): "I'm not sure if Green Bay will win, but I am going to pick them (and comment positively on them) to gain the love of the commish...."

Commish says: (Lol, these people think I'm so easy... I mean, I wouldn't just publish... because... OK I LOVE THIS.)

@mlking(Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers): "This is my first pool entry (I'm here for the Bachelor you guys...). I took all favorites, all at home. My husband calls this "chalk" but I call it "winning""

Commish says: BOOOOOOOMMMM!! Your first ever pool (and thus your first ever pick comment), and you threw it DOWN. (Get in our Bachelor competition, people!)

OUR SECOND CHANCE AND NBA PICKOFFS HAVE A LITTLE MORE INTRIGUE

By virtue of being the only two brave souls to ever finish a 21-0 Second Chance Pool run, @chrisb and @JMB are already headed to the SZN Hall of Fame. Who will take the Rex Ryan Buffet Plate and $6,000?

And our scenarios:

• Commish had written up a huge analysis of the scenarios, then @chrisb changed his pick to Houston this morning.
• That makes this one easy: Giants-Packers becomes a winner-take-all for Second Chance glory.

As for the three brave souls who somehow lasted 10 weeks in our NBA survivor (keep in mind the NBA has like six good teams) and then each dropped a game, they're picking off as such:

All Commish can say is, "I knew this was gonna come down to Philly vs. Brooklyn." Good luck, gents.

WE WILL END WITH DAVID MICK'S PRECISE MILDLY COHERENT THOUGHTS ON HIS 2016 BFIG RUN

As we know, SZN's 2016 breakout commenting star, @mick, lost in BFIG Week 16 because he refused to pick against his beloved Bears. I asked him for his thoughts on the season, and he delivered.

The main takeaways: David Mick loves the Canadian BLL. David Mick nearly finished dead last in his family pick'em and his family thinks he has zero football skill. David Mick talks a mountain of shit. And David Mick really truly believes the Bears are going to win next year's Super Bowl. Take it away, man:

"Man what a great year! Seriously it was a lot of fun. CJ Bland is the guy who got me to join and I certainly owe him a few BLLs!!! They are his favorite. Anyway, my highest of highs and lowest of lows happened on the week I got knocked out. It was just brutal, man. I know I know I should have picked Washington but I am a true Bears fan and will not pick against them! That day was just crazy. The night before, I was at my inlaws' family christmas party in NY. All the guys were down in the basement at the bar talking sports. My father in-law and I were the only ones left in a survivor pool. Side note - My father in law won his last season and was working on going back to back. He will be BFIG next year no doubt about it. Well, we are all talking about what picks should be made yada yada. I go into my rant about my pick and why I made it. I basically trash talk just like I type out these things went it comes to sports. I go on and on and those guy are just unloading on me about how I just threw away a shot at 40k and then you know egos get involved and the wife comes down and is saying seriously you picked the Rams are you crazy?!?!? I defend my position and say I guess we will see. My father in law picked the Seahawks.

"Well, the next day comes and I watch my plan shape up to be exactly like I called it. (Note: He predicted the Browns and Jags wins.) I just needed the Rams to show up. And they did!!! With 6 minutes to go they are up by 14 and the Seahawks are getting killed. At exactly this moment, some of the family I was talking trash too the night before come walking in the house!!! Yes!!! this was perfect!!! I'm sitting there drinking the Canadian equivalent to BLL in all my glory and genius rubbing it in all their faces... It was the highest of high on the season. Even better because in the pickem league all the family and friends are in I was in dead last. Like they can't believe the onsalught of trash talking I'm handing them. They are thinking this guy here is about to win 40k and he is in dead last in out pickem league. No one was even thinking about next week or any tiebreakers. My Rams play was about to work out and everyone knew if it did I was going to win the 40k no problem. (I ended up finishing second to last in the pickem because some guy didn't pick the last week so I snuck in!!!)

"Then... that's when it happened. The football gods decided I didnt deserve it. I didnt have the humility to win this league yet as a first timer. I needed to have, like what us bears fans are use to, my soul crushed. The football gods said yep nows the time. We've waited long enough, giving him the best survivor pool feeling we can give him. Let's have Kap crush his dreams... and thats what happened... just like that. I go silent. Family members laugh. I sulk... then I get another chance!!! Wait whats this!?!?!? Goff only has to get 20 yards for the field goal!!! Is he going to do it... Of course not. He throws a pick and just like that another papercut and my survivor pool dies right there and I enter the lowest of lows while the family laughes even more.

"So thats my season. Went for it and got crushed!!! But it was still damn awesome and I'll be doing it again and again! A few predictions before I go: 1) I dont want to give up all my knowledge as I plan to win the Playoff Pool but you heard it here first. Patriots over the Falcons 42-35. Also, Romo goes to Washington in the offseason. Also Also like Alshon said... Bears win the superbowl next year. 2) Will I win the survivor pool next year? I'm pretty sure I will. The only thing that will stop me is if I convince my wife to play. She will win it all if she plays."

That'll do it for this week. Good luck, everyone!

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